Abstract:
After the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in August 2015, RMB exchange rate had been through continued and sharp depreciation. There is a view that it is the inevitable result of the “monetary overhang” in China. Based on the analysis of the creation process of credit money, we point out that the high money demand incurred by the rapid economic growth and the low efficiency of money use are the main reasons of the high absolute value of M2 and the ratio of M2/GDP in China. So it is not proper to jump into the conclusion that “monetary overhang” exists in China and the deprecation of RMB exchange rate is inevitable. It is the fragility of the financial system rather than the volume of money that is the biggest challenge of keeping exchange rate stability and fulfilling the successful transformation of exchange rate regime. So we bring the policy suggestions that economic growth is the key, expectation is important, financial system needs healthy and open-up should prudent.
管涛. 货币供应与汇率:中国“货币超发”必然导致人民币贬值吗?[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 462(12): 19-36.
GUAN Tao. Money Supply and Exchange Rate Movement: Will the “Monetary Overhang” in China Make the Weakening of RMB Against Greenback Inevitable?. Journal of Financial Research, 2018, 462(12): 19-36.
[1]管涛,2017a,《汇率选择“中间解”的中国样本》,《国际金融研究》,第12期,第75~82页。 [2]管涛,2017b,《一个硬币的两面:辩证看待中国的货币存量》,《新金融评论》,第2期,第1~21页。 [3]管涛,2018a,《有舍才有得的选择题:人民币汇率政策反思与前瞻》,《国际金融研究》,第9期,第3~12页。 [4]管涛,2018b,《“1美元=19.77元”?这个判断不靠谱》,《证券时报》,10月9日,第A11版。 [5]管涛和张岸天,2018,《不一样的贸易赤字:新加坡国际收支的演变及其启示》,《开放性金融研究》,第2期,第3~14页。 [6]黄凡,2018,《中国式次级债风暴真的来了吗?》,FT中文网,7月18日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001078517?archive。 [7]连平、刘健和鄂永健,2017,《国际收支逆差与人民币贬值》,《新金融》,第2期,第8~16页。 [8]刘丽娜,2001,《日本当年“买下美国”的前车之鉴》,《经济参考报》,9月1日,005版。 [9]刘莉亚和任若恩,2003,《银行危机与货币危机共生性关系的实证研究》,《经济研究》,第10期,第40~49页。 [10]牛慕鸿和孙莎,2017,《从超额准备金看美联储缩表》,《中国金融》,第21期,第25~27页。 [11]彭文生,2017,《渐行渐近的金融周期》,北京:中信出版集团。 [12]祁斌和查向阳,2013,《直接融资和间接融资的国际比较》,《新金融评论》,第6期,第102~107页。 [13]任泽平,2016,《俄罗斯、日本和东南亚的启示:保房价还是保汇率》,《股市动态分析》,第39期,第16~17页。 [14]易纲,2018,《四大举措打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战》,《证券时报》,3月26日,A02版。 [15]孙国峰,2001,《信用货币制度下的货币创造和银行运行》,《经济研究》,第2期,第29~37页。 [16]孙国峰和贾君怡,2015,《中国影子银行界定及其规模测算——基于信用货币创造的视角》,《中国社会科学》,第11期,第92~110页。 [17]王永利,2013,《必须客观准确地看待货币总量》,《国际金融研究》第6期,第4~13页。 [18]伍戈和李斌,2012,《货币创造渠道的变化与货币政策的应对》,《国际金融研究》,第10期,第4~10页。 [19]伍戈、亢悦和罗蔚,2017,《货币供应新方式:近忧与远虑》,《新金融评论》,第2期,第46~53页。 [20]徐忠,2017,《去杠杆的标本兼治之策》,《金融经济》,第11期,第20~22页。 [21]余永定和肖立晟,2017,《解读中国的资本外逃》,《国际经济评论》,第5期,第97~115页。 [22]张隽,2013,《中国货币超发的计量及其宏观效应研究》,博士学位论文,西南财经大学,第7页。 [23]张晓慧,2015,《新常态下的货币政策》,《中国金融》,第2期,第22~25页。 [24]周其仁,2010,《通胀之源:被动超发货币》,《IT时代周刊》,第23期,第20页。 [25]Bass, J.K. 2016. “The $34 Trillion Experiment: China's Banking System and the World's Largest Macro Imbalance,” Hayman Capital Management, L.P. [26]BIS. 2015. “International Banking and Financial Market Developments,” BIS Quarterly Review, September. [27]IMF. 2011. “Assessing Reserve Adequacy,” IMF Policy Paper, February. [28]IMF. 2013. “Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Further Considerations,” IMF Policy Paper, February. [29]IMF. 2015. “Assessing Reserve Adequacy––Special Proposals”, IMF Policy Paper, April. [30]IMF.2017. “People's Republic of China: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China,” IMF Staff Country Reports. [31]Kaminsky, G, Lizondo S., and Reinhart C. M. 1998. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,” Staff Papers 45.1∶1-48. [32]Krugman, P. 1979. “A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises,” Journal of Money Credit & Banking 11.3∶311-325. [33]Mancini,Griffolio T. 2017. “Transitions and Financial Stability,“PBC and IMF Fifth Joint Conference on ”Strengthening Financial and Exchange Rate Frameworks International Experience and Relevance for China”, April. [34]Mcleay, M, Radia A, Thomas R. 2014. “Money Creation in the Modern Economy,” Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, March∶14-27.