Abstract:
The paper theoretically indicates that under the conditions of a representative agent utility maximization and the government indefinite budget constraints, the tax rate and the inflation rate is not only a positive correlation, negative correlation may also exist. At the same time under the government's fiscal target cost function minimization and the government indefinite budgetary constraints, there is not only a positive correlation, but also a negative correlation, which is different from "Mankiw principle" analysis. Based on the sample data from 1952 to 2013, the GMM empirical results display that the tax rate and the inflation rate is positively related, but the effects on government tax are positive by the government spending, the effects of the government spending are positive on the slope of the government tax and the inflation rate, and negative are the effects of the resources endowment on the slope. From the impulse response functions of the VAR model, there also shows a positive correlation between the tax rates and the inflation rate, the impact of the government expenditure is positive on the slope of the tax rate and the inflation rate, the resource endowment influences the slope negatively, which are consistent with the conclusions of GMM analysis.
陆前进. 政府税收税率和通货膨胀率关系的理论和实证研究——对Mankiw Principle的理论修正及在中国的实证检验[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 422(8): 64-78.
LU Qianjin. A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Government Tax Rates and Inflation Rate: Mankiw Principle in China. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 422(8): 64-78.
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