Abstract:
This paper estimates China's capital stock in detail. On this basis, employing the production function method to estimate potential output of China in 1978-2012 ,which considering capital, labor force, labor quality and total factor productivity and using the state space model to estimate the dynamic output elasticity of factor inputs.Then based on the characteristics of China's economic new normal, analysing the trend of main factors which would impact the future economic growth and predicting the economic potential growth rate of China in future, which will be about 7% in 2016-2020 under the baseline scenario according to estimates. The contributions to economic growth of the capital and labor inputs will decline in future. Great attentions should be paid to the role of total factor productivity.
吴国培, 王伟斌, 张习宁. 新常态下的中国经济增长潜力分析[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 422(8): 46-63.
WU Guopei, WANG Weibin, ZHANG Xining. Analysis of Economic Potential Growth Rate of China under the New Normal. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 422(8): 46-63.
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