Abstract:
We investigate the components, causes and impacts of China's financial leverage increase from 2009 to 2016, and compare them with the experience of United States and European economies before 2008. Money growth, soft budget constraints of local governments and SOEs, high saving rate were in place before 2009, and can't be solid causes for debt leverage increase. In the context of economic structural transformation from manufacturing to service, marginal contribution of debt growth to nominal GDP growth declined due to mismatch between supply and demand in both manufacture and service sectors. To stabilize China's financial leverage, China need stability policies to get away from deflation, and structural policies to maintain growth engine, such as deregulations in service sectors, better discipline and financing instruments for infrastructure projects.
张斌, 何晓贝, 邓欢. 不一样的杠杆——从国际比较看杠杆上升的现象、原因与影响[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 452(2): 15-29.
ZHANG Bin, HE Xiaobei, DENG Huan. China's Financial Leverage Increase in an International Perspective. Journal of Financial Research, 2018, 452(2): 15-29.
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