Abstract:
Enterprise expectations are considered to be an important factor that affects the macroeconomics. In this paper, the survey data was collected from the MinXin PMI compiled by China Minsheng Bank and China Academy of New Supply-side Economics. The qualitative survey data was transferred into quantitative data and a model was built to examine the formation of enterprise's business expectations and fixed-asset investment expectations. Then we built the expectation errors model to measure the enterprise expectation errors. Our research shows that the enterprise finance, employment and self-evaluation were the key factors of both the formation and errors of enterprise expectations, due to the industry type and enterprise scale, the depth and direction of the influence has a significant difference.
徐捷, 袁铭, 郭红. 企业预期形成与预期偏误——基于企业层面调查数据的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 427(1): 116-129.
XU Jie, YUAN Ming, GUO Hong. The Formation of Enterprise Expectations and Expectation Bias: An Empirical Research on the Basis of Enterprise-level Survey Data. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 427(1): 116-129.
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