Can the Development of E-Commerce in Rural Areas Slow the Outflows of Capital and Labor？ —Using the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-Commerce into Rural Areas as an Example
BU Jiewen, TANG Long, ZHAO Yanyan, LI Danqing
Institute for Historical Theory, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; School of Economics/Institute for China Common Prosperity Research, Jiaxing University; Yangtze River Delta Financial Technology Research Institute, Jiaxing University; Beijing Youth Politics College
Summary:
The insufficient endogenous capacity caused by factor shortages has become a key issue restricting sustainable rural development, and the backwardness of rural industrial development is an important reason why rural areas are in a state of long-term net outflows due to the difficulty in meeting the flow preferences of capital and labor factors. Given the important role of industries and factors in rural revitalization, the central government clearly states in work reports and other documents that guiding capital and labor resources to flow to rural areas is essential for the development of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. The central government emphasizes that industrial prosperity is an important foundation for achieving rural revitalization, and proposes to achieve this by enhancing the attractiveness of rural industries and promoting their development. Given the increasingly important role of rural e-commerce in poverty alleviation, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce jointly launched a Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-commerce into Rural Areas in 2014, to enable more regions to share the digital dividends brought by e-commerce development, and have achieved positive results. However, the shortage of capital and labor factors is restricting the development and effectiveness of rural e-commerce and is an urgent problem requiring resolution. In the dual context of the continuous release of digital dividends in rural e-commerce and the serious constraint of factor shortages on rural development, an important issue requiring attention in the rural revitalization process is whether the development of e-commerce in rural areas can slow the outflow of factors, provide industrial support for rural development, and guarantee the availability of production factors, such as funds and labor. This article regards the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-commerce into Rural Areas as a quasi-natural experiment, adopts a difference-in-differences (DID) method, and uses national county-level panel data. This approach ensures a large sample size, incorporates both capital and labor factors into the research framework, and reduces endogeneity. In addition, the study examines the impact and mechanism of rural e-commerce policies on factor flows from multiple perspectives to accurately depict the general impact of digital technology, represented by rural e-commerce, on the flow of factors in empowering rural industrial development at the national level. Specifically, this study examines the impact of the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-commerce into Rural Areas on the flow of rural capital and labor factors using the DID method and national county-level panel data for the period from 2011 to 2019. The results show that the implementation of this policy considerably reduces the per capita capital outflow from rural areas, attracts population inflows, effectively improves the factor attractiveness of the demonstration counties, and provides an industrial foundation and factor guarantee for rural revitalization. A mechanism analysis reveals that rural e-commerce policies significantly reduce the outflow of rural factors by promoting rural entrepreneurship, reducing the urban-rural income gap, and increasing factor inputs. Further research demonstrates that the expenditure structure of national policies supporting the development of rural e-commerce and differences in distance between regions and their prefecture-level cities have heterogeneous effects on the flow of factors in demonstration counties. When the level of digital technology development in regions is low, the implementation of rural e-commerce policies can significantly slow capital outflows, whereas when the level of digital technology development is high, this implementation attracts considerable population inflows. In addition, the increase in the number and proportion of demonstration counties in each city creates a siphon effect, with capital flowing from demonstration counties to non-demonstration counties, thereby creating a spillover effect on their population flows. To better leverage the effectiveness of rural e-commerce policies, activate the potential of rural factors, and promote rural development, various regions should fully leverage the collaborative role of the government, digital technology, and farmers, continuously strengthen policy guidance and financial support, improve the efficiency of financial fund utilization, continuously improve the rural e-commerce ecosystem, and optimize the developmental environment of the e-commerce industry. In addition, regions should leverage government and digital technology to enrich the rural industrial ecosystem, improve the urban-rural factor exchange system, slow the outflow of rural factors, and guide them to serve the development of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers by providing institutional guarantees, industrial support, and factor support for rural revitalization.
卜洁文, 汤龙, 赵妍妍, 李丹青. 农村发展电子商务能减缓资本与劳动力要素外流吗？ ——以电子商务进农村综合示范政策为例[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 521(10): 145-164.
BU Jiewen, TANG Long, ZHAO Yanyan, LI Danqing. Can the Development of E-Commerce in Rural Areas Slow the Outflows of Capital and Labor？ —Using the Comprehensive Demonstration Policy of E-Commerce into Rural Areas as an Example. Journal of Financial Research, 2023, 521(10): 145-164.
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