Please wait a minute...
金融研究  2023, Vol. 511 Issue (1): 131-149    
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
宋弘, 张庆, 陆毅
复旦大学经济学院,上海 200433;
清华大学经济管理学院,北京 100084
Consumer Credit and Household Human Capital Investment
SONG Hong, ZHANG Qing, LU Yi
School of Economics, Fudan University;
School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
下载:  PDF (720KB) 
输出:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 已有丰富的文献考察了消费信贷对家庭消费和投资行为的影响,但少有研究关注其对家庭人力资本投资的影响。家庭人力资本投资对于人力资本积累、经济高质量发展至关重要。基于此,本文考察了信用卡使用对家庭人力资本投资的影响及其影响机制,主要发现如下:信用卡使用显著增加了家庭人力资本投资,且这一效应具有长期动态影响并对城市、高收入、高教育程度家庭影响更为显著,这意味着信用卡消费信贷可能会增加人力资本不平等。进一步研究发现,家庭会增加劳动力供给来应对人力资本支出的增加。机制分析表明,信用卡使用主要通过增加家庭消费投资、促进消费升级、缓解家庭预算约束三种途径促进家庭人力资本投资。在风险可控的前提下,引导消费信贷流向有利于实体经济发展的领域,可助力于消费升级与人力资本积累,从而为经济发展提供新动能。
E-mail Alert
关键词:  人力资本  消费信贷  家庭金融    
Summary:  The growing use of credit cards increases consumer credit accessibility, alleviates liquidity constrains, facilitates smooth consumption, and increases total consumption. Previous studies investigate the effects of credit cards on consumption, savings, and financial market investments; however, few studies explore the effects on human capital investments. Meanwhile, given slowing economic growth and aging population in China, the government is facing budgetary pressure to increase education finance. Household human capital investments can increase human capital accumulation and promote high-quality economic development. Thus, this study investigates whether and how credit card usage affects household human capital investments.
We use panel data from the 2011-2017 China Household Finance Survey. These nationally representative survey data provide information on households' financial and nonfinancial assets, liabilities, income, consumption, investments, and demographic characteristics. Our study proceeds in several steps and produces various findings.
First, we find that credit card usage has significantly positive effects on household human capital investments. To deal with the potential concern of endogeneity, we control for the time trend of the baseline difference between households with and without credit cards into the specification. In addition, we exploit the proportion of households using credit cards in the same community as the instrumental variable. We also conduct a battery of robustness checks for alternative outcome variables, dimensional effect exclusion, different samples, propensity score matching, additional controls, and outlier exclusion. The results of all of these tests are consistent and robust.
Second, we examine and establish several possible channels through which credit card usage affects household human capital investments. First, credit card usage may increase household consumption and investments, including human capital investments. Second, it may promote increased consumption and optimize the consumption structure. In other words, credit card usage can increase human capital investments for the purpose of individual development. Third, credit card usage may ease household budget constraints and optimize intertemporal asset allocation, thereby increasing human capital investments.
Third, we conduct further investigation and find that credit card usage has persistent, long-term promotion effects on human capital investments. We also find that households increase their labor supply and other liabilities to ensure greater cash flow to deal with repayment pressure in the future, which raises concerns regarding potential financial risks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effects of credit card usage on human capital are more pronounced among urban households and those with high income and high education levels, which may widen the gap in human capital accumulation among households.
Our findings have a number of policy implications. In terms of the effects of COVID-19 and the recent substantial slashes in taxes and fees, China is facing government pressure and a slowdown in its economic growth. Our findings provide new insights into human capital dividend accumulation and show that it is a new driver for economic growth. For example, digital consumer credit can be combined with student loans to encourage households to invest more in human capital. Supervision laws and regulations and risk control systems should be improved to reduce financial risks. Thus, consumer credit can facilitate the development of the real economy, expand domestic demand and promote high-quality economic development.
The study contributes to the extensive body of literature on the effects of consumer credit. Previous studies mainly focus on the impacts of consumer credit on household consumption and savings. Our findings expand the literature by providing new evidence from the perspective of household human capital investments. Moreover, our findings provide new insights into how to effectively increase human capital accumulation.
Keywords:  Human Capital Accumulation    Consumer Credit    Household Finance
JEL分类号:  J24   J21   E51  
基金资助: * 本文感谢国家社科基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径与政策选择研究”(项目号:20&ZD076)对本文的支持。感谢匿名审稿人的宝贵意见,文责自负。
通讯作者:  张 庆,经济学博士研究生,复旦大学经济学院,   
作者简介:  宋 弘,经济学博士,副教授,复旦大学经济学院,上海国际金融与经济研究院,
陆 毅,经济学博士,教授,清华大学经济管理学院,
宋弘, 张庆, 陆毅. 消费信贷与家庭人力资本投资[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 511(1): 131-149.
SONG Hong, ZHANG Qing, LU Yi. Consumer Credit and Household Human Capital Investment. Journal of Financial Research, 2023, 511(1): 131-149.
链接本文:  或
[1] 陈斌开、张鹏飞和杨汝岱,2010,《政府教育投入、人力资本投资与中国城乡收入差距》,《管理世界》第1期,第36~43页。
[2] 甘犁、尹志超、贾男、徐舒和马双,2013,《中国家庭资产状况及住房需求分析》,《金融研究》第4期,第1~14页。
[3] 郭庆旺和贾俊雪,2009,《公共教育政策、经济增长与人力资本溢价》,《经济研究》第10期,第22~35页。
[4] 李江一和李涵,2017,《消费信贷如何影响家庭消费?》,《经济评论》第2期,第113~126页。
[5] 李力行和周广肃,2015,《家庭借贷约束、公共教育支出与社会流动性》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期,第65~82页。
[6] 宋弘和陆毅,2020,《如何有效增加理工科领域人才供给?——来自拔尖学生培养计划的实证研究》,《经济研究》第2期,第52~67页。
[7] 宋弘和吴茂华,2020,《高房价是否导致了区域高技能人力资本流出?》,《金融研究》第3期,第77~95页。
[8] 王江、廖理和张金宝,2010,《消费金融研究综述》,《经济研究》第S1期,第5~29页。
[9] 熊伟,2014,《短期消费性贷款与居民消费:基于信用卡余额代偿的研究》,《经济研究》第S1期,第156~167页。
[10] 徐丽鹤、吕佳玮和何青,2019,《信用卡、风险应对与城镇家庭股市参与》,《金融研究》第3期,第149~167页。
[11] 尹志超、公雪和潘北啸,2019,《移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查的微观证据》,《金融研究》第10期,第40~58页。
[12] 尹志超、宋全云和吴雨,2014,《金融知识、投资经验与家庭资产选择》,《经济研究》第4期,第62~75页。
[13] 张莉、何晶和马润泓,2017,《房价如何影响劳动力流动?》,《经济研究》第8期,第155~170页。
[14] 周京奎、王贵东和黄征学,2019,《生产率进步影响农村人力资本积累吗?——基于微观数据的研究》,《经济研究》第1期,第100~115页。
[15] 邹薇和郑浩,2014,《贫困家庭的孩子为什么不读书:风险、人力资本代际传递和贫困陷阱》,《经济学动态》第6期,第16~31页。
[16] Agarwal, S., P. M. Skiba, and J. Tobacman. 2009. “Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles,” American Economic Review, 99(2):412~417.
[17] Agarwal, S., and W. Qian. 2014. “Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore”, American Economic Review, 104(12):4205~4230.
[18] Aydin, D. 2015. “The Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Liquidity: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial”, Meeting Papers. Society for Economic Dynamics, 1~55.
[19] Becker G. S., and N. Tomes. 1986. “Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families”, Journal of Labor Economics, 4(3):S1~S39.
[20] Bernheim, D.B., and D. M.Garrett. 2003. “The Effects of Financial Education in the Workplace: Evidence from a Survey of Households”, Journal of Public Economics, 87(7-8):1487~1519.
[21] Ceroni, and C., Berti. 2001. “Poverty Traps and Human Capital Accumulation”, Economica, 68(270):203~219.
[22] Colin, and Camerer. 1998. “Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making”, Experimental Economics, 1(2):163~183.
[23] Ekici, T., and L. Dunn. 2010. “Credit Card Debt and Consumption: Evidence from Household-level Data,” Applied Economics, 42(4):455~462.
[24] Gennaioli, N., R. La Porta, F. Lopez-de-Silanes, and A. Shleifer. 2013. “Human Capital and Regional Development”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1):105~164.
[25] Gregorio. 1996. “Borrowing Constraints, Human Capital Accumulation, and Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(1):49~71.
[26] Gross, D. B., and N. S. Souleles. 2002. “Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(1):149~185.
[27] Guerrieri, V., and G. Lorenzoni. 2017. “Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(3):1427~1467.
[28] Hayashi F. 1985. “The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Analysis”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(1):183~206.
[29] Hirschman, E. C. 1979. “Differences in Consumer Purchase Behavior by Credit Card Payment System”, Journal of Consumer Research, 6(1):58~66.
[30] Lucas. 1988. “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1):3~42.
[31] Ludvigson S. 1999. “Consumption and Credit: A Model of Time-varying Liquidity Constraints”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(3):434~447.
[32] Modigliani, F., and R. Brumberg. 1954. “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data”, The Collected Papers of Franco Modigliani, 6:3~45.
[33] Olney M. 1999. “Avoiding Default: The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1):319~335.
[34] Schady, N. R. 2004. “Do Macroeconomic Crises Always Slow Human Capital Accumulation?” The World Bank Economic Review, 18(2):131~154.
[35] Soman, D., and A. Cheema. 2002. “The Effect of Credit on Spending Decisions: The Role of the Credit Limit and Credibility”, Marketing Science, 21(1):32~53.
[36] Sourdin P. 2008. “Pension Contributions as a Commitment Device: Evidence of Sophistication among Time-inconsistent Households”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4):577~596.
[1] 刘孟鑫, 许敬轩, 马光荣. 空气污染与企业人力资本结构升级——基于逆温现象IV估计的实证检验[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 517(7): 154-172.
[2] 周怀康, 张莉, 刘善仕. 城市房价与企业间高技能人才流动——基于在线简历大数据的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 515(5): 115-133.
[3] 易行健, 张凌霜, 徐舒, 周聪. 商业健康保险、预防性储蓄动机与居民消费支出——理论与经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 514(4): 130-148.
[4] 刘文杰, 宋弘, 陈诗一. 教育财政如何影响家庭人力资本投资:事实、机制与政策含义[J]. 金融研究, 2022, 507(9): 93-110.
[5] 叶永卫, 李鑫, 刘贯春. 数字化转型与企业人力资本升级[J]. 金融研究, 2022, 510(12): 74-92.
[6] 金智, 彭辽. 地方人才引进政策与公司人力资本[J]. 金融研究, 2022, 508(10): 117-134.
[7] 聂秀华, 江萍, 郑晓佳, 吴青. 数字金融与区域技术创新水平研究[J]. 金融研究, 2021, 489(3): 132-150.
[8] 刘贯春, 司登奎, 刘芳. 人力资本偏向金融部门如何影响实体经济增长?[J]. 金融研究, 2021, 496(10): 78-97.
[9] 宋弘, 吴茂华. 高房价是否导致了区域高技能人力资本流出?[J]. 金融研究, 2020, 477(3): 77-95.
[10] 李丁, 丁俊菘, 马双. 社会互动对家庭商业保险参与的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 469(7): 96-114.
[11] 杨薇, 孔东民. 企业内部薪酬差距与人力资本结构调整[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 468(6): 150-168.
[12] 鲁元平, 赵颖, 石智雷. 产假政策与子女长期人力资本积累[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 473(11): 57-74.
[13] 周弘, 张成思, 何启志. 中国居民资产配置效率的门限效应研究:金融约束视角[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 460(10): 55-71.
[14] 吴锟, 吴卫星. 理财建议可以作为金融素养的替代吗?[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 446(8): 161-176.
[15] 郭凯明, 余靖雯. 工资增长、生育率差异与人力资本积累——基于内生生育和退休的动态一般均衡研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 441(3): 1-15.
[1] 王曦, 朱立挺, 王凯立. 我国货币政策是否关注资产价格?——基于马尔科夫区制转换BEKK多元GARCH模型[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 1 -17 .
[2] 刘勇政, 李岩. 中国的高速铁路建设与城市经济增长[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 18 -33 .
[3] 况伟大, 王琪琳. 房价波动、房贷规模与银行资本充足率[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 34 -48 .
[4] 祝树金, 赵玉龙. 资源错配与企业的出口行为——基于中国工业企业数据的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 49 -64 .
[5] 陈德球, 陈运森, 董志勇. 政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 65 -80 .
[6] 牟敦果, 王沛英. 中国能源价格内生性研究及货币政策选择分析[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 81 -95 .
[7] 高铭, 江嘉骏, 陈佳, 刘玉珍. 谁说女子不如儿郎?——P2P投资行为与过度自信[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 96 -111 .
[8] 吕若思, 刘青, 黄灿, 胡海燕, 卢进勇. 外资在华并购是否改善目标企业经营绩效?——基于企业层面的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 112 -127 .
[9] 姜军, 申丹琳, 江轩宇, 伊志宏. 债权人保护与企业创新[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 128 -142 .
[10] 刘莎莎, 孔高文. 信息搜寻、个人投资者交易与股价联动异象——基于股票送转的研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 143 -157 .
Full text



版权所有 © 《金融研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持