Please wait a minute...
金融研究  2017, Vol. 441 Issue (3): 1-15    DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0001-15
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
工资增长、生育率差异与人力资本积累——基于内生生育和退休的动态一般均衡研究
郭凯明, 余靖雯
中山大学岭南学院,广东广州 510275
北京外国语大学国际商学院,北京 100089
Wage Growth, Fertility Differential and Human Capital Accumulation: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with Endogenous Fertility and Retirement
GUO Kaiming, YU Jingwen
Lingnan College, Sun Yat-Sen University
International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University
下载:  PDF (1444KB) 
输出:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 本文结合我国不平等程度高、计划生育放松和工资增速转变等特点,研究了工资增长对劳动力质量的影响。研究表明,生育行为受生育数量和老年闲暇的替代关系影响,低收入群体生育率较高,质量投入较低,退休也较晚,于是工资增长将通过生育率差异影响人力资本积累。通过对转移动态的定量评估,本文建议为缓解社保资金压力,政府应在短期选择延迟退休年龄和提高社会保障税率、在长期选择继续延迟退休年龄和降低社会保障税率的政策组合。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
郭凯明
余靖雯
关键词:  生育率  人力资本  社会养老保障    
Abstract:  The paper studies the effect of wage on the human capital accumulation in a unified growth model with inequality and endogenous fertility. It highlights the substitutional relationship between fertility and old-age leisure, through which the fertility differential is determined by the evolution of human capital. Because of externality during the period of human capital evolution, low income families tend to have higher fertility rate, lower quality investment and retire later. In the economy with rapid wage growth, the fertility differential leads to a larger share of labor with low human capital, which hinders the accumulation of human capital. The effects of social security policies also be examined. The main result implies that to cope with the financial pressure of social security fund, the government should increase the retirement age and social security tax in the short run, and change to a lower social security tax in the long run.
Key words:  Fertility    Human Capital    Social Security
JEL分类号:  H55   J13   O15  
基金资助: 国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA005)、国家自然科学基金项目(71503102)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(14YJC790040)、广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030310147)、国家自然科学基金项目(71403028)、北京外国语大学青年学术创新团队支持计划(2015JT005)
作者简介:  郭凯明,经济学博士,副教授,中山大学岭南学院,Email:guokm3@mail.sysu.edu.cn.余靖雯(通讯作者),经济学博士,副教授,北京外国语大学国际商学院,Email:yujingwen@bfsu.edu.cn.
引用本文:    
郭凯明, 余靖雯. 工资增长、生育率差异与人力资本积累——基于内生生育和退休的动态一般均衡研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 441(3): 1-15.
GUO Kaiming, YU Jingwen. Wage Growth, Fertility Differential and Human Capital Accumulation: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Study with Endogenous Fertility and Retirement. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 441(3): 1-15.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/10.12094/1002-7246(2017)03-0001-15  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V441/I3/1
[1] 蔡昉,2010,《人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点》,《经济研究》第4期,第4~13页。
[2] 钞小静和沈坤荣,2014,《城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长》,《经济研究》第6期,第30~43页。
[3] 郭凯明和颜色,2015,《性别工资差距、资本积累与人口转变》,《金融研究》第8期,第13~30页。
[4] 汪伟,2012,《人口老龄化、养老保险制度变革与中国经济增长》,《金融研究》第10期,第29~45页。
[5] de la Croix, David, and Matthias Doepke. 2003. “Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters”,American Economic Review, 93(4): 1091~1113.
de la Croix, David, and Matthias Doepke. 2003. “Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters”,American Economic Review, 93(4): 1091~1113.
[6] de la Croix, David, and Matthias Doepke. 2004. “Public versus private education when differential fertility matters,”Journal of Development Economics, 73: 607~629
[7] Diebolt, Claude, and Faustine Perrin. 2013. “From Stagnation to Sustained Growth: The Role of Female Empowerment”,American Economic Review, 103(3): 545~549.
[6] de la Croix, David, and Matthias Doepke. 2004. “Public versus private education when differential fertility matters,”Journal of Development Economics, 73: 607~629
[8] Doepke, Matthias. 2004. “Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth,”Journal of Economic Growth, 9: 347~383.
[7] Diebolt, Claude, and Faustine Perrin. 2013. “From Stagnation to Sustained Growth: The Role of Female Empowerment”,American Economic Review, 103(3): 545~549.
[9] Fan, C. Simon, and Jie Zhang. 2013. “Differential fertility and intergenerational mobility under private versus public education”,Journal of Population Economics, 26: 907~941.
[8] Doepke, Matthias. 2004. “Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth,”Journal of Economic Growth, 9: 347~383.
[10] Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 1996. “The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth”, American Economic Review, 86(3): 374~387.
[9] Fan, C. Simon, and Jie Zhang. 2013. “Differential fertility and intergenerational mobility under private versus public education”,Journal of Population Economics, 26: 907~941.
[11] Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond,” American Economic Review, 90(4): 806~828.
[10] Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 1996. “The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth”, American Economic Review, 86(3): 374~387.
[11] Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond,” American Economic Review, 90(4): 806~828.
[12] Groezen, Bas van, Theo Leers, and Lex Meijdam. 2003. “Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins”,Journal of Public Economics, 87: 233~251.
Groezen, Bas van, Theo Leers, and Lex Meijdam. 2003. “Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins”,Journal of Public Economics, 87: 233~251.
[13] Hosseini, Roozbeh, Larry E. Jones, and Ali Shourideh. 2013. “Optimal contracting with dynastic altruism: Family size and per capita consumption”,Journal of Economic Theory, 148: 1806~1840.
[14] Lucas, Robert. E. Jr.. 2002. “The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future,” inLectures on Economic Growth, Harvard University Press.
[13] Hosseini, Roozbeh, Larry E. Jones, and Ali Shourideh. 2013. “Optimal contracting with dynastic altruism: Family size and per capita consumption”,Journal of Economic Theory, 148: 1806~1840.
[15] Manuelli, Rodolfo E., and Ananth Seshadri. 2009. “Explaining International Fertility Differences”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124: 771~807.
[14] Lucas, Robert. E. Jr.. 2002. “The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future,” inLectures on Economic Growth, Harvard University Press.
[16] Yew, Siew Ling, and Jie Zhang. 2009. “Optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth”,Journal of Public Economics, 93: 605~619.
[15] Manuelli, Rodolfo E., and Ananth Seshadri. 2009. “Explaining International Fertility Differences”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124: 771~807.
[17] Zhang, Jie. 1995. “Social Security and Endogenous Growth”,Journal of Public Economics, 58: 185~213.
[16] Yew, Siew Ling, and Jie Zhang. 2009. “Optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth”,Journal of Public Economics, 93: 605~619.
[17] Zhang, Jie. 1995. “Social Security and Endogenous Growth”,Journal of Public Economics, 58: 185~213.
[1] 杨薇, 孔东民. 企业内部薪酬差距与人力资本结构调整[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 468(6): 150-168.
[2] 沈沁, 谢丹阳. 全球经济增长的可持续性:不容置疑[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 428(2): 86-95.
[1] 王曦, 朱立挺, 王凯立. 我国货币政策是否关注资产价格?——基于马尔科夫区制转换BEKK多元GARCH模型[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 1 -17 .
[2] 刘勇政, 李岩. 中国的高速铁路建设与城市经济增长[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 18 -33 .
[3] 况伟大, 王琪琳. 房价波动、房贷规模与银行资本充足率[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 34 -48 .
[4] 祝树金, 赵玉龙. 资源错配与企业的出口行为——基于中国工业企业数据的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 49 -64 .
[5] 陈德球, 陈运森, 董志勇. 政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 65 -80 .
[6] 牟敦果, 王沛英. 中国能源价格内生性研究及货币政策选择分析[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 81 -95 .
[7] 高铭, 江嘉骏, 陈佳, 刘玉珍. 谁说女子不如儿郎?——P2P投资行为与过度自信[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 96 -111 .
[8] 吕若思, 刘青, 黄灿, 胡海燕, 卢进勇. 外资在华并购是否改善目标企业经营绩效?——基于企业层面的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 112 -127 .
[9] 姜军, 申丹琳, 江轩宇, 伊志宏. 债权人保护与企业创新[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 128 -142 .
[10] 刘莎莎, 孔高文. 信息搜寻、个人投资者交易与股价联动异象——基于股票送转的研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 143 -157 .
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《金融研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn
京ICP备11029882号-1