Financial Cycle,Industrial Technology Fluctuation and Economic Structure Optimization
MIAO Wenlong, ZHONG Shihe, ZHOU Chao
International Business School, Shanxi Normal University; School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University/Xian Branch's Business Management Office, The People's Bank of China; Zhang Ye Branch,the People's Bank of China
Abstract:
Based on measuring the financial cycle and 12 categories industries technology investment cycles, and analyzing the financial cycle effects on different industries, this paper draws the following conclusions. The financial variables cycles are asynchronous, and the different industry's technology investment cycle has a significant difference. Different financial variable has different quantitative relationship with different industry technology investment. In the prosperity stage, financial market and banks all play a positive role on the technology innovation, but financial market' promoting effect on the high-density innovation industries' technology investment is more significant, and banks' pushing effect on the low-density innovation industries' technology investment is more obvious. In the tightening stage, financial market' inhibitory effect on the high-density innovation industries' technology investment is more severe, and banks may smooth the fluctuation of low-density innovation industries' technology investment. The policy implications are that actions should be taken to guide the financial capital to flow into technical innovation enterprises so as to optimize the economic structure.
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