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金融研究  2017, Vol. 444 Issue (6): 17-32    DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)06-0017-16
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人口老龄化背景下的长期经济增长潜力研究
徐翔
中央财经大学经济学院,北京 100081
Determinants of Potential Economic Growth Rates in Aging Societies
XU Xiang
School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics
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摘要 本文研究了加速的人口老龄化进程如何通过“养儿防老”机制影响经济增长。基于包含养儿防老机制的半内生增长框架,本文通过理论分析和数值模拟探讨人口老龄化对于经济增长的影响及其政策含义。研究结果显示,养儿防老机制通过影响出生率影响经济增长潜力,养儿成本的增加降低了长期潜在增长率,而子代提供的赡养收入的提高则能提高长期潜在增长率;此外,较高的教育供给水平能够提高居民对未来收入的预期,从而提高生育率,对于人口老龄化和随之而来的经济增速下滑具有显著的抑制作用。
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徐翔
关键词:  人口老龄化  经济增长  养儿防老    
Abstract:  This article studies about how accelerating population aging affects potential economic growth rates by building up a semi-endogenous growth model and conducting numerical simulations. Solution to the model shows that within-household old-age support plays a key role in growth rate determination. Both increasing costs of raising children and decreasing return from children’s old-age support have a negative impact on long-term economic growth. Furthermore, higher education supply will increase household’s expectations for future income, thus increasing birth rates and potential economic growth rates.
Key words:  Population Aging    Economic Growth    Within-household Old-age Support
JEL分类号:  J11   J13  
基金资助: 国家社科基金重大项目(批准号:12&ZD028;14ZDB120;16ZDA005)、教育部人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(编号:14JZD019)、北京市哲学社会科学规划重大项目(编号:14ZDA01)、中央财经大学“社会调研与数据库建设项目”和中央财经大学青年教师发展基金(编号:QJJ1616)。
作者简介:  徐翔,经济学博士,讲师,中央财经大学经济学院,Email:seanxuxiang@126.com.
引用本文:    
徐翔. 人口老龄化背景下的长期经济增长潜力研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 444(6): 17-32.
XU Xiang. Determinants of Potential Economic Growth Rates in Aging Societies. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 444(6): 17-32.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/10.12094/1002-7246(2017)06-0017-16  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V444/I6/17
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