Abstract:
The study of whether or not the population aging can bring the secondary demographic dividend does not reach an agreement. This paper develops an extended OLG model and studies the impact of delaying retirement age on saving, capital accumulation and output in the equilibrium. The study shows that it has an impact on gross output depends on the control effect between decreasing saving leading to output decline effect and increasing labor force leading to output increasing effect. Data simulate shows that increasing life expectancy can bring the secondary demographic dividend. When the retirement age is raised for 5 years or 10 years, the condition for bringing which is that the life expectancy should raised no more than 5.5 or 8. In terms of the secondary demographic dividend, our study shows that we write the improvement of life expectancy into the economic development index system will have important implications.
耿志祥, 孙祁祥. 人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 439(1): 52-68.
GENG Zhixiang, SUN Qixiang. Population Aging, Delaying Retirement Age and the Secondary Demographic Dividend. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 439(1): 52-68.
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