Summary:
Since 2017, regulatory authorities in China have promulgated a series of rules to promote the opening up of the banking industry to the international market. There is little consensus about the impact of this opening up on bank risk. The opening up of the banking industry in emerging market countries provides mixed evidence. The banking industry in some of these countries has improved its financial innovation ability and international competitiveness. However, in some countries, it has led to increased operating and development costs in the banking industry, resulting in greater financial risk. It is generally believed that the benefits of opening up depend on an industry's level of development, the stability of the financial system, and the degree of opening up. If the banking industry is relatively stable and has a high level of development, increased openness can improve its profitability and promote the development of the domestic banking industry. However, if the banking industry is relatively weak and has accumulated high risks, then due to opening up, the banking industry will face major challenges from strong foreign financial institutions. It can be seen that the risk analysis of the opening up of the banking industry has strong heterogeneity. The development experience of other countries has limited relevance to the opening up of the banking industry in China. We should study the risks brought about by opening up and design appropriate institutions based on national conditions and the development of the banking industry. This paper makes several theoretical contributions: it constructs a research framework for opening up and bank risk, expands the theoretical research on the relationship between bank opening and risk-taking under an open economy, and discusses degrees of opening up and their impact on bank risk. It also has practical significance: on the basis of micro-data, it offers an analysis of the impact of opening up on bank risk, providing empirical support and decision-making guidelines for the prevention and control of risk in opening up China's banking industry. In this paper, the proportion of foreign ownership is used as an proxy for “bringing in,” the proportion of overseas assets as an alternative index for “going out,” and the Z value and rate of non-performing loans as proxies for the operational risk and credit risk of the banking industry. Small and medium-sized commercial banks and large commercial banks are used to examine the relationship between opening up and bank risk. The results show that there is a nonlinear curve between opening up and the risk of commercial banks, and there is a critical point. For small and medium-sized commercial banks, a very high proportion of foreign ownership and very small scale of overseas investment will bring risk. For large commercial banks, there is a threshold range for the scale of overseas investment, which may lead to increased bank risk within that range. This paper makes the following policy suggestions. The proportion of foreign ownership in small and medium-sized commercial banks should not be too high, and small and medium-sized commercial banks should be encouraged to increase their overseas investment. Large commercial banks can adjust their strategy of opening up according to their target in a specific period. Risk warning and control measures should be strengthened. In expanding the opening up of the banking industry, we should implement the principle of macro-prudence, prudently assess the possible risks, and maintain the overall stability of China's financial system. The main innovations and contributions of this paper are as follows. First, based on the micro-data of opening up in financial reports and announcements of 392 commercial banks in China, this paper empirically examines the correlation between opening up and bank risk to extract the unique characteristics of China's banking industry opening up to the world, from the perspectives of “bringing in” and “going out.” Second, the paper analyses the critical points in the process of opening up the banking industry, identifies the “degrees” of opening up, and makes policy recommendations for controlling financial risk in this process. In the future, when data are available, we will examine the impact of opening up on bank risk from multiple perspectives.
马理, 何云, 牛慕鸿. 对外开放是否导致银行业的风险上升？——基于外资持股比例与海外资产占比的实证检验[J]. 金融研究, 2020, 478(4): 91-111.
MA Li, HE Yun, NIU Muhong. Does Opening Up Lead to Increased Risk in the Chinese Banking Industry？ An Empirical Test Based on Foreign Ownership and Overseas Assets. Journal of Financial Research, 2020, 478(4): 91-111.
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