Summary:
New economic phenomena, problems, and concepts have emerged consecutively since the financial crisis. As drivers of macroeconomic research, central banks have been carrying out in-depth analysis on these new concepts and patterns and exploring new policy options. The gap between existing macroeconomic theories and the new issues in the practical policy-making process not only poses challenges, but also provides rare historical opportunities to researchers. Currently, central banks' research around the world include the following three key topics. The first is the logic behind negative interest rate policies (NIRPs) and their effects. Since the global financial crisis, some developed economies have implemented NIRPs to stimulate economic recoveries. Strengthened supervision and weakened risk preferences after the crisis provided the possibility for NIRPs, while the credit currency system and the widespread adoption of electronic trading technologies provided the necessary conditions for the implementation of NIRPs. NIRPs may effectively boost confidence, reduce market interest rates, and loosen financial conditions in the short-term. However, in the long-term, the effects will not be as satisfying. NIRPs can easily affect banks' profitability, hamper effective resource allocation, weaken the transmission effect of interest rate policies, create asset bubbles, lead to competitive currency devaluation and financial turmoil, and over-exert central bank's policy control. China should treasure the fact that our monetary policy operates within normal margins, take full advantage of the decisive role that the market plays in optimizing resource allocation through price leverage, deepen reform and opening-up to improve the role of the government, focus on unblocking the monetary policy transmission channels and provide necessary policy preparations for crisis response. The second is the macroeconomic policy challenges posed by global stablecoins. Facebook's white paper release of Libra on June 2019 triggered widespread concerns over the potential risks and macroeconomic policy challenges posed by stablecoins. These issues mainly concern four aspects. (1) Stablecoin transactions and payment information are independent of existing systems, thus posing challenges for central banks to provide effective supervision. (2) Stablecoins may weaken the effectiveness of capital control, thereby affecting domestic financial stability. If stablecoins suffer from poorly designed global networks, lack of regulations, or fail to function as intended, they may also introduce new risks to financial stability. (3) Global stablecoins will impact the currency sovereignty of a nation, which may affect the creation and transmission of credit currencies. Stablecoins may also destabilize the demand for currency, which makes policy-setting more difficult. (4) The use of stablecoins on a global scale may further enhance the dominant position of the USD in the international monetary system. In 2014, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) initiated researches on its own digital currency and digital fiat currency (Digital Currency Electronic Payment, DC/EP). It is necessary to adapt fiat currency to future digital economic ecology and meet the challenges posed by global stablecoins. The third is the risks to the macroeconomy and financial system caused by climate change. Climate change is one of the major factors leading to structural changes in the economy and financial system. First, climate change may shrink collateral values and tighten credit terms, which in turn send market signals that may magnify the risks of climate change. Second, climate change is highly uncertain, and financial institutions are unprepared to handle extreme anomalies. Third, climate change impacts the financial system and the macroeconomy through “circular feedback”. The PBoC thoroughly implements new development concepts, attaches great importance on green financial system constructions, and will focus on the following three propositions: (1) climate change's heterogeneous impact and policy response on specific segments of the financial industry; (2) how the risks of climate change impact macroprudential and microprudential supervision; (3) the feasibility and framework adjustments required to incorporate climate change risks as parameters into the two-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macroprudential policy. The global economy is still teetering on the edge of crisis today. To explore a modern central bank system and establish a highly adaptable, competitive and inclusive modern financial system, we need to mobilize the Chinese academia, the political sphere, and the market together, and cooperate as they participate and explore the theoretical and practical frontiers, so as to better boost academic prosperity, and sustain high-quality economic development in this era of change.
JEL分类号:
E52
E58
Q51
作者简介: 陈雨露,经济学博士,教授,任职于中国人民银行。
引用本文:
陈雨露. 当前全球中央银行研究的若干重点问题[J]. 金融研究, 2020, 476(2): 1-14.
CHEN Yulu. Issues in Current Central Bank Researches. Journal of Financial Research, 2020, 476(2): 1-14.
BIS, 2019, “Investigating the Impact of Global Stablecoins”, CPMI Papers, No.187.
[15]
Brainard, L., 2019a, “Digital Currencies, Stablecoins, and the Evolving Payments Landscape”, Speech at The Future of Money in the Digital Age, Oct., 16th.
[16]
Brainard, L., 2019b, “Update on Digital Currencies, Stablecoins, and the Challenges Ahead”, Speech at ECB, Dec., 18th.
[17]
Carney, M., 2019, “The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System”, Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium 2019, August 23rd.
[18]
Cartas, M. and A. Harutyunyan, 2017, Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide, IMF.
Coeure, B., 2018, “Monetary Policy and Climate Change”, Speech at Scaling up Green Finance, Deutsche Bundesbank, Berlin, Nov. 8th.
[22]
Dell’Ariccia, G., P. Rabanal, and D. Sandri, 2018, “Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(4): 1278~1301.
[23]
Dafermos, Y., M. Nikolaidi and G. Galanis, 2017, “Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy”, Working Paper 1712, Post-Keynesian Economics Study Group.
[24]
Eggertsson, G., N. Mehrotra and L. Summers, 2016, “Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy”, NBER Working Paper, No.22172.
[25]
FSB, 2019, “Regulatory Issues of Stablecoins”, https://www.fsb.org/.
[26]
Hall, R., 2016, “Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate”, NBER Working Paper, No.22196.
[27]
Heider, F., F. Saidi and G. Schepens, 2018, “Life below Zero”, ECB Working Paper, No.2173.
[28]
Holston, K., T. Laubach, J. C. and Williams, 2017, “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest”, Journal of International Economics, 108,(S1):59-S75.
[29]
Huertas, G., and J. Gagnon., 2019, “Facebook's Libra Currency Could Bring Benefits but also Risks for Developing Countries”, https://www.piie.com/.
[30]
IMF, 2019, “The Rise of Digital Money”, Fintech Notes, July.
[31]
Klomp, J. 2014, “Financial Fragility and Natural Disasters”, Journal of Financial Stability, 13(C): 180~192.
[32]
Lambert, C., F. Noth and U. Schuewer, 2012, “How Do Banks React to Increased Asset Risks？ Evidence from Hurricane Katrina”. ECB Working Paper, No. 787.
[33]
McGlade, C. and P. Ekins, 2015, “The Geographical Distribution of Fossil Fuels.” Nature 517, 187~190.
[34]
NGFS. 2019, “First Comprehensive Report”, Network for Greening the Financial System, April.
[35]
Rogoff, K., 2017, “Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(3): 47~66.
[36]
Rudebusch, G.. 2019. “Climate Change and the Federal Reserve”, FRBSF Economic Letter, No. 2019~09.
[37]
Taylor, J., 2016, “Interest on Reserves and the Fed's Balance Sheet”, Cato Journal, 36(3): 711~720.
[38]
Villeroy F, 2015, “Climate Change: The Financial Sector and Pathways to 2°C”,Banque de France Working Paper, 199.
[39]
Von Peter, G, S. Von Dahlen and S. Saxena, S. 2012, “Unmitigated Disasters？”, BIS Working Papers No. 394.
