An Empirical Research on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Neighboring Countries Effects and Bilateral Trades:Based on Spacial Panel Data Model for China and “One Belt and One Road” Countries
CAO Wei ,YAN Fangrong ,BAO Shuming
School of Finance,Zhejiang Gongshang University;
Department of Mathematics,China Pharmaceutical University;
China Data Center,University of Michigan
Abstract:
This paper introduces the neighboring countries effects into the theoretical model of the relationship between exchange rate and trade, and applies the spatial panel data model to explore the influences on bilateral trades of the exchange rate fluctuations and neighboring countries effects. We get the following conclusions: Firstly, the lagged one period bilateral exchange rate appreciation promotes the imports for China from “One Belt and One Road” countries.The current and lagged one period exchange rate depreciations have some positive influences on China’s exports to the “One Belt and One Road” countries. Neighboring effects of most “One Belt and One Road” countries exceed exchange rate fluctuation effects on bilateral trades. Secondly, for individual “One Belt and One Road” country, researches show that neighboring countries effects tend to be competitive inhibition for both China’s imports from “One Belt and One Road” countries and China’s exports to “One Belt and One Road” countries. Furthermore,we apply sensitivity analysis to know that 10% depreciation of RMB exchange rate leads to o.4% net export effects between china and all “One Belt and One Road” countries in general. Finally, we get the following suggestions:China should balance the relationships between China and each individual “One Belt and One Road” country, and speed up international trade structure adjustment.
曹伟, 言方荣, 鲍曙明. 人民币汇率变动、邻国效应与双边贸易——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家空间面板模型的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 435(9): 50-66.
CAO Wei , YAN Fangrong , BAO Shuming. An Empirical Research on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Neighboring Countries Effects and Bilateral Trades:Based on Spacial Panel Data Model for China and “One Belt and One Road” Countries. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 435(9): 50-66.
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