Abstract:
Policy makers have stressed the criticality of the precise macro-control. In terms of fiscal policy, the implementation of the precise policy heavily relies on the scientific calculations of the fiscal multipliers. However, the quantitative research on China's fiscal multipliers is basically blank. Besides, current research usually ignores two important characteristics of China's economy: serious financial frictions and low benchmark interest rate. This paper simultaneously incorporates these two characteristics into the existing framework and systematically calculates the fiscal multipliers of output, employment, consumption and investment. The results show: The multipliers above are 3.44, 2.13, 0.78 and 5.77, respectively; Neglecting financial frictions and low interest rate will significantly underestimate the fiscal multipliers of China; Financial frictions and low interest rate interact with each other, resulting in their comprehensive effects being much higher than the summation of their respective effects.
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