Housing Security System, Household Consumption and Social Integration of Migrants—Analysis using Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Based on Public Rental Housing Access Conditions
SUN Weizeng, WANG Shiyong, WANG Hongwei
Joint Research Institute, Nanjing Audit University; School of Customs and Public Administration, Shanghai Customs College; School of Public Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Summary:
As of 2019, China has built over 80 million units of various types of affordable housing and shantytown resettlement housing programs, helping more than 200 million people in need improve their housing conditions and building the world's largest housing security system. As an important component of the social security system, the housing security system has reconstructed new measures such as monetary subsidies, physical guarantees, or mixed bottom-up measures based on the adjustment of traditional welfare housing allocation, fundraising for building houses, and unit purchase policies. This can effectively solve the problem of market mechanisms not being able to meet the needs of all people to achieve a place to live, and alleviate the contradiction between market mechanisms and resident welfare. Given the important role of housing in family economic decision-making, the significance of the housing security system is not limited to solving the housing problems of disadvantaged groups, but also has multiple functions such as stabilizing housing prices, stimulating consumption, and promoting economic growth. Specifically, the decrease in housing costs—the direct effect of affordable housing—has been proven to effectively promote an increase in non-housing consumption in households. With the continuous intensification of international competition and the increasing uncertainty of external demand, expanding domestic demand has become an inevitable choice to promote sustainable economic growth in China. Against the backdrop of the country's continuous promotion of the supply of affordable housing and the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand, it is of great significance to deeply explore the consumption effects and underlying mechanisms of the housing security system. This article focuses on the current national key promotion of public rental housing (PRH) design, and empirically examines the consumption effect of the housing security system. Specifically, this article focuses on the impact of public rental housing policies on the consumption of mobile households and the degree of social integration. In terms of empirical design, this article designs a fuzzy regression discontinuity (Fuzzy RD) model based on the requirements for household income in the admission conditions of PRH, effectively solving the sample selection problem of the protected group. Empirical study using data from the 2016 and 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) finds that: firstly, the PRH policy significantly reduces the housing expenditure of protected households and increases non-housing consumption, but its impact on total expenditure and savings is insignificant; Secondly, PRH policies can influence the consumption choices of protected households through location and income effects, and the latter is more prominent. This article also confirms the existence of these two effects based on the heterogeneity analysis of income change trends and commuting population size; Thirdly, the PRH policy has significantly increased the willingness and perception of social integration among families of protected migrant populations, but has not increased their demand for local housing, which will not have an impact on urban housing prices; Fourthly, the PRH policy has a more significant consumption promotion and social integration enhancement effect on the high educated, young, and unmarried protected groups, which helps to improve the quality of urban labor. The marginal contribution of this article is mainly reflected in the following points: Firstly, this article empirically examines the impact of PRH policies on the consumption, social integration, and housing demand of migrant households for the first time, enriching and expanding the research results on the economic and social effects of existing housing security systems. Secondly, this article uses the Fuzzy RD method to evaluate the policy effectiveness of the housing security system, effectively solving the endogeneity problem of nonrandom effects in cross-sectional data processing, and ensuring the effectiveness and unbiased estimation of parameters. Thirdly, this article also discusses the impact mechanism and heterogeneity characteristics of the acquisition of PRH on the consumption and social integration of the floating population from multiple dimensions, which helps to have a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the impact of the housing security system on the economic behavior of the floating population. The research conclusion of this article has the following policy implications: Firstly, the national and local governments should fully leverage the power of social capital on the basis of adhering to the expansion of affordable rental housing construction, and explore a market-oriented and sustainable path to solve the housing problems of disadvantaged groups and new citizens. Secondly, various channels should be leveraged to increase the supply of affordable rental housing land, promote the conversion of idle and inefficient nonresidential housing stock into affordable rental housing; urban public transportation networks should be expanded to improve the accessibility of affordable housing in remote areas, and reduce the transportation costs for residents. Thirdly, in the context of increasingly fierce competition for talent among regions, the heterogeneity research in this article finds that optimizing the supply of affordable housing and institutional design by local governments can help attract and retain talent, and contribute to the accumulation of human capital and sustainable economic growth in the local area in the medium and long term. Fourthly, when local governments allocate PRH, they can consider the proportion structure between local residents and outsiders in the community, and adopt measures to combine affordable rental housing with market rental housing, optimize the neighborhood structure of the protected group, and accelerate the social integration of new citizens.
孙伟增, 王诗勇, 王洪卫. 住房保障制度、流动人口家庭消费与社会融入——基于公租房准入条件的模糊断点回归分析[J]. 金融研究, 2024, 526(4): 169-187.
SUN Weizeng, WANG Shiyong, WANG Hongwei. Housing Security System, Household Consumption and Social Integration of Migrants—Analysis using Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Based on Public Rental Housing Access Conditions. Journal of Financial Research, 2024, 526(4): 169-187.
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