Abstract:
Using statistical approach and TVP-VAR model, this paper analyzes the PBC’s implementation of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools and their macroeconomic effects of China nearly 30 years. The results indicate that: (1) The PBC holds a prudent attitude by using quantitative tools, which is operated with high-frequency and high-strength when encountering strong shocks. The mode of quantitative instruments has a tendency that the control rhythm is quickened and the each control intensity is reduced. The implementation rhythm of price-based tools is comparatively balanced. (2) It is more important for China’s central bank to deal with the recession in stagflation economy, where the expansionary price-based policy is often used for its relatively moderate feature. (3) From the time-varying and the evolutionary perspectives, the macroeconomic effects of quantitative monetary policy on the output are improved, and the effects on the inflation maintain stable. (4) As for price-based policy, its advantage of efforts is obvious on the output in the recovery period, the advantage of time lags on output lie in down economy, while the effects on inflation are making great improvement.
黄宪, 王旭东. 我国央行货币政策实施力度和节奏的规律及效果研究——基于历史演进和时变分析的视角[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 425(11): 15-32.
HUANG Xian, WANG Xudong. Research on Monetary Policy Implementation Rules and Effects of China’s Central Bank: Based on Dynamic Analysis of Time-varying Perspective. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 425(11): 15-32.
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