Abstract:
Under the theoretical framework of Keynesian beauty contest, this paper provides some new explanations for the dual characteristics of analysts, i.e., “changed face” phenomena and herding behavior, and expands a new understanding of the source of analysts' earnings forecasts biases. The evidence based on China indicates that analysts rely heavily on the average opinion of other participants, i.e. higher-order expectations, demonstrating that Keynesian beauty contest phenomena also exist in security analyst industry. The results also show that the effect of beauty contest is strongly associated with the herding behavior of analysts. The further evidence indicates that the star analysts depend less on high order expectations and presents less herding behavior due to the effect of beauty contest.
游家兴, 周瑜婷, 肖珉. 凯恩斯选美竞赛与分析师预测偏差行为——基于高阶预期的研究视角[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 445(7): 192-206.
YOU Jiaxing, ZHOU Yuting, XIAO Min. Keynesian Beauty Contest and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts Biases:Based on the Research Perspective of Higher-order Expectations. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 445(7): 192-206.
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