Terms of Trade and Current Account Dynamics of the BRICs:Theoretical Analysis Based on the Framework of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Empirical Studies on the BRICs
LU Qianjin
Department of International Finance, Fudan University
Abstract:
In this paper the theoretical analysis shows that depending on the elasticity of substitution of the exports and imports, the relationship between the terms of trade and current account could be either positive or negative, but in the long run it is positive, that is, the HLM effects exist. The dynamic effects of monetary and productivity shocks are affected by the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between the terms of trade and current account, etc. Empirical results show that HLM effects exist in Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa, while in India HLM effects do not in the long run. Through the empirical results it shows HLM effects do not exist in the 5 BRICs in the event of the monetary shock, the effects do except for india with the productivity shock. Permanent shocks (productivity shocks) play a big role in the changes of the terms of trade, but has a smaller impact on current account; temporary shocks (monetary shocks) has greater impact on the current account and less impact on current account, and whether HLM effects exist depends on the sources of the shocks.
陆前进. 贸易条件与经常项目的动态变化关系——基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架的理论和“金砖五国”的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 443(5): 32-46.
LU Qianjin. Terms of Trade and Current Account Dynamics of the BRICs:Theoretical Analysis Based on the Framework of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Empirical Studies on the BRICs. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 443(5): 32-46.
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