PENG Fangping, OUYANG Zhigang, ZHAN Kai, LIU Liang
Business School, Sun Yat-Sen University School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Collaborative Innovation Center for 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Studies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the mechanism of a debt trap in theory by using the nonlinear model predictive control method. The results show that when the debt is at a low level, the debt has a positive influence on the real economy. But with the rising debt level, the real economy is downward after excessive debt reached a certain threshold which means the economy in a debt trap. Empirical studies confirm the above theoretical analysis, and show that China's economy has fallen into the debt trap from firm's evidence. The policy implications of the above findings are that quantitative monetary stimulus policies are not conducive to solving the current economic slowdown. On the contrary, the way of cutting interest rates, capital restructuring to stimulate investment should be adopted.
彭方平, 欧阳志刚, 展凯, 刘良. 我国落入债务陷阱了吗？——理论模型与经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 440(2): 70-83.
PENG Fangping, OUYANG Zhigang, ZHAN Kai, LIU Liang. Is China in a Debt Trap:Theory and Evidence. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 440(2): 70-83.
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