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金融研究  2017, Vol. 440 Issue (2): 70-83    DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)02-0070-14
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我国落入债务陷阱了吗?——理论模型与经验证据
彭方平, 欧阳志刚, 展凯, 刘良
中山大学管理学院,广东广州 510275
中南财经政法大学,湖北武汉 430073
广东外语外贸大学21世纪海上丝绸之路协同创新中心,广东广州 510006
Is China in a Debt Trap:Theory and Evidence
PENG Fangping, OUYANG Zhigang, ZHAN Kai, LIU Liang
Business School, Sun Yat-Sen University
School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Collaborative Innovation Center for 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Studies,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
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摘要 本文基于非线性模型预测控制方法,从理论上分析了债务陷阱的发生机制。研究结果表明,当负债处于较低水平时,经济表现为债务驱动型,而随着债务水平不断上升,当负债率超过某一阈值后,出现负债率上升和实体经济下行的背离走势,从而经济陷入债务陷阱。本文进一步基于企业数据实证研究证实了上述理论分析,并表明,从企业层面来看,我国已落入债务陷阱状态。上述研究结果所派生的政策含义是,数量型货币刺激政策并无益于解决当前经济增速下滑问题,要重在通过降息、资本重组和发展股权市场等方式来去杠杆和刺激投资。
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彭方平
欧阳志刚
展凯
刘良
关键词:  非线性预测控制  金融压力  投资  债务陷阱    
Abstract:  This paper analyzes the mechanism of a debt trap in theory by using the nonlinear model predictive control method. The results show that when the debt is at a low level, the debt has a positive influence on the real economy. But with the rising debt level, the real economy is downward after excessive debt reached a certain threshold which means the economy in a debt trap. Empirical studies confirm the above theoretical analysis, and show that China's economy has fallen into the debt trap from firm's evidence. The policy implications of the above findings are that quantitative monetary stimulus policies are not conducive to solving the current economic slowdown. On the contrary, the way of cutting interest rates, capital restructuring to stimulate investment should be adopted.
Key words:  NMPC    Financial Stress    Investment    Debt Trap
JEL分类号:  C33   E32   G32  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金(71673312;71201174;71303265),教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(15YJA790079)、广东省自然科学基金(2014A030313577)、2014年度广东省优秀青年教师计划
作者简介:  彭方平,通讯作者,经济学博士,教授,中山大学管理学院,Email:pengfp@mail.sysu.edu.cn.欧阳志刚,经济学博士,教授,中南财经政法大学金融学院,Email:oyzg2001@sina.com.展凯,经济学博士,教授,广东外语外贸大学21世纪海上丝绸之路协同创新中心,Email:zhank97@163.com.刘良,经济学博士,副教授,中山大学管理学院,Email:mnsliul@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
引用本文:    
彭方平, 欧阳志刚, 展凯, 刘良. 我国落入债务陷阱了吗?——理论模型与经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 440(2): 70-83.
PENG Fangping, OUYANG Zhigang, ZHAN Kai, LIU Liang. Is China in a Debt Trap:Theory and Evidence. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 440(2): 70-83.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/10.12094/1002-7246(2017)02-0070-14  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V440/I2/70
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