Abstract:
The substitution of electronic money for the existing money has brought appreciably challenges to traditional finance, especially the impact on the money supply. This paper will use the electronic money in the form of third-party payment as the research object, introduce it into the theoretical analysis framework of money supply, and analyze the motivation of micro-subject's cash-holding and the driving factors of electronic money substitution by establishing the game model of consumers and merchants. This paper analyzed the impact of electronic money on the money supply, and the SVAR model is constructed for empirical testing. The results show that the cash leakage rate and electronic money usage are endogenous variables that affect the broad money multiplier. The substitution of electronic money for traditional currency will increase the broad money multiplier in the short run, but will suppress the money multiplier to further expand in the middle and later stages. On the whole, the contribution of the two endogenous factors to the broad money multiplier impact feedback is stable at 1.18% and 4.92% in the medium and long term.
[1] 李东荣,2014,《我国电子现金发展相关问题研究》,《金融研究》第3期,第1-10页. [2] 孙国峰、邓婕和尹航,2014,《电子货币对信用货币体系的影响——基于自由竞争市场》,《金融研究》第10期,第50-68页. [3] 王潇颖和冯科,2011,《电子货币对我国货币政策的影响:基于微观主体持币动机的研究》,《南方金融》第3期,第14-19页. [4] 肖崎,2009,《支付体系变革及其对中央银行的挑战》,《上海金融》第12期,第29-34页. [5] 王峥,2018,《第三方支付视角下电子货币对现金替代作用的实证研究》,《上海金融》第6期,第87-92页. [6] 谢平和刘海二,2013,《ICT、移动支付与电子货币》,《金融研究》第10期,第1-14页. [7] 谢平和尹龙,2001,《网络经济下的金融理论与金融治理》,《经济研究》第4期,第24-31页. [8] 杨弋帆,2014,《电子货币对货币供给及货币乘数的影响机制研究——包含第三方支付机构的三级创造体系》,《上海金融》第3期,第47-54页. [9] 印文和裴平,2016,《电子货币的货币供给创造机制与规模——基于中国电子货币对流通中纸币的替代》,《国际金融研究》第12期,第3-12页. [10] 周光友,2006,《电子货币发展对货币流通速度的影响——基于协整的实证研究》,《经济学》(季刊),第4期,第1219-1234页. [11] 周光友和施怡波,2015,《互联网金融发展、电子货币替代与交易性货币需求》,《金融研究》第5期,第38-83页. [12] Cronin, D. and Dowd, K.2001, “Does Monetary Policy Have a Future?”The Cato Journal, 21(2): 227-244. [13] Fujiki, H. and Tanaka, M.2014, “Currency Demand, New Technology, and the Adoption of Electronic Money: Micro Evidence from Japan.”Economics Letters, 125(1):5-8. [14] Grjebine T.2013, "Does Modern Banking Lead to Money Privatization?”International Economics. 133(133): 50-71. [15] Humphrey, D B.1996, “Cash, Paper, and Electronic Payments: a Cross-Country Analysis.”Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 28(4):914-939. [16] Nautz D. and Scheithauer J.2011, “Monetary Policy Implementation and Overnight Rate Persistence.”Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(7):1375-1386. [17] Supervision, Basel Committe For Banking, 1998, “Risk Management for Electronic Banking and Electronic Money Activities.” Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, 35. [18] Skeie D. R.2008, “Banking with Nominal Deposits and Inside Money.”Journal of Financial Intermediation, 17(4): 562-584. [19] Woodford, Michael.2000, “Money Policy in a World without Money”International Finance,3(2):229-260.
