Abstract:
In accordance with the Real Option Theory, we build a structural model for the study of P2P lending risk events,aiming to find out the mechanism in which P2P lending risk events occur. In the model, we liken the occurrence of a P2P lending risk event to the optimal exercise of a perpetual American put option, and within the framework of Geometric Brownian Motion, we work out the value of the P2P lending platform according to the optimal stopping theory. And then by applying Laplace Transform we work out an explicit solution to the theoretical probability of the occurrence of P2P lending risk events, and we discover that the increases in the P2P borrowers' repaid money, the variations in the P2P borrowers' repaid money, the size of the risk reserves etc. would affect the theoretical probability of the occurrence of P2P lending risk events.And by numerical simulation we find out that the bigger the increases in the P2P borrowers' repaid money, the lower the theoretical probability that P2P lending risk events would occur, the bigger the variations in the P2P borrowers' repaid money, the higher the theoretical probability that P2P lending risk events would occur, and the larger the size of the risk reserves, the lower the theoretical probability that P2P lending risk events would occur.
刘红忠, 毛杰. P2P网络借贷平台爆发风险事件问题的研究——基于实物期权理论的视角[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 461(11): 119-132.
LIU Hongzhong, MAO Jie. A Study of P2P Lending Risk Events: the Perspective of the Real Option Theory. Journal of Financial Research, 2018, 461(11): 119-132.
[1] 陈冬宇、朱浩和郑海超,2014,《风险,信任和出借意愿——基于拍拍贷注册用户的实证研究》,《管理评论》第1期,第150~158页. [2] 陈霄和叶德珠,2016,《中国P2P网络借贷利率波动研究》,《国际金融研究》第1期,第83~96页. [3] 范超、王磊和解明明,2017,《新经济业态P2P网络借贷的风险甄别研究》,《统计研究》第2期,第33~43页. [4] 何光辉、杨咸月和蒲嘉杰,2017,《中国P2P网络借贷平台风险及其决定因素研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第11期,第44~62页. [5] 黄益平、沈艳和王靖一,2015,《哪类个体网络借贷平台容易出问题?——对3439家平台特征的分析与对监管框架的思考》,北京大学国家发展研究院和北京大学互联网金融研究中心工作论文. [6] 李晓明,2015,《P2P网络借贷的刑法控制》,《法学》第6期,第93~102页. [7] 李焰、高弋君和李珍妮等,2014,《借款人描述性信息对投资人决策的影响——基于P2P网络借贷平台的分析》,《经济研究》第A1期,第143~155页. [8] 李悦雷、郭阳和张维,2013,《中国P2P小额贷款市场借贷成功率影响因素分析》,《金融研究》第7期,第126~138页. [9] 廖理、吉霖和张伟强,2015,《借贷市场能准确识别学历的价值吗?——来自P2P平台的经验证据》,《金融研究》第3期,第146~159页. [10] 廖理、李梦然和王正位,2014a,《聪明的投资者:非完全市场化利率与风险识别——来自P2P网络借贷的证据》,《经济研究》第7期,第125~137页. [11] 廖理、李梦然和王正位,2014b,《中国互联网金融的地域歧视研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第5期,第54-70页. [12] 彭红枫、赵海燕和周洋,2016,《借款陈述会影响借款成本和借款成功率吗?——基于网络借贷陈述的文本分析》,《金融研究》第4期,第158~173页. [13] 王会娟和廖理,2014,《中国P2P网络借贷平台信用认证机制研究——来自“人人贷”的经验证据》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第136~147页. [14] 王修华、孟路和欧阳辉,2016,《P2P网络借贷问题平台特征分析及投资者识别——来自222家平台的证据》,《财贸经济》第12期,第71~84页. [15] 王艳丽,2015,《中国P2P网贷的发展与监管制度构建》,《中国法学》第6期,第24~48页. [16] 伍坚,2015,《我国P2P网贷平台监管的制度构建》,《法学》第4期,第92~97页. [17] 周雄伟、朱恒先和李世刚,2017,《“平台参与投资”与P2P筹资效率——基于拍拍贷平台“拍活宝”数据的经验研究》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第155~175页. [18] Brennan, M. J. and E. S. Schwartz, 1985, “Evaluating Natural Resource Investments”, Journal of Business, 2, pp. 135~157. [19] Bolton, P., N. Wang and J. Yang, 2014, “Investment under Uncertainty and the Value of Real and Financial Flexibility”, NBER Working Paper, No. 20610. [20] Chen H.,J. Miao and N. Wang, 2010, “Entrepreneurial Finance and Nondiversifiable Risk”,Review of Financial Studies, 12, pp. 4348~4388. [21] Dietrich, A. and R. Wernli, 2016, “What Drives the Interest Rates in the P2P Consumer Lending Market? Empirical Evidence from Switzerland”,SSRN Working Paper, No. 2767455. [22] Duarte J.,S. Siegel and L. Young, 2012, “Trust and Credit: the Role of Appearance in Peer-to-Peer Lending”,Review of Financial Studies, 8, pp.2455~2484. [23] Komarova, L. Y. and L. Gonzalez, 2015, “Competition against Common Sense: Insights on Peer-to-Peer Lending as a Tool to Allay Financial Exclusion”,International Journal of Bank Marketing, 5, pp.605~623. [24] Mason, S. P. and R. C. Merton, 1985, “The Role of Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance”, Recent Advances in Corporate Finance, Eds. by Altman, E. I. and M. G. Subrahmanyam, pp.7~54. [25] Myers S. C.,1977, “Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”,Journal of Financial Economics, 2, pp.147~175. [26] McDonald, R. and D. Siegel, 1986, “The Value of Waiting to Invest”,Quarterly Journal of Economics, 4, pp.707~727. [27] Sundaresan S.,N. Wang and J. Yang, 2015, “Dynamic Investment, Capital Structure, and Debt Overhang”,Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 1, pp.1~42. [28] Slattery P.,2013, “Square Pegs in a Round Hole: SEC Regulation of Online Peer-to-Peer Lending and the CFPB Alternative”Yale Journal on Regulation, 30, pp.233~275. [29] Zhang, J. and P. Liu, 2012, “Rational Herding in Microloan Markets”,Management Science, 5, pp.892~912.