Abstract:
Based on the data of Chinese stock market, household consumption, GDP per capita, price index and interest rate for about 100 years, we test if “The Equity Premium Puzzle” exists in modern and contemporary China. It is found that the risk aversion coefficients for modern investors from 1888-1938 are within the reasonable levels. But the risk aversion coefficients for modern investors from 1939-1947 and contemporary investors are above the reasonable levels, indicating the “The Equity Premium Puzzle” exists in these periods.Moreover, the risk aversion coefficient for modern investors from 1939-1947 is much higher than that for contemporary investors. It reveals that the war and hyperinflation in 1939-1947 stimulate the “Background Risk” for stock investment, leading to significantly higher risk aversion coefficients and the equity premium.
周翔翼, 杨光明, 孔东民. 社会变迁、风险规避与股权溢价之谜——来自晚清、民国与当代中国股票市场的经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 424(10): 163-180.
ZHOU Xiangyi, YANG Guangming, KONG Dongmin. Social Change, Risk Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Modern and Contemporary China. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 424(10): 163-180.
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