Abstract:
This paper simulates the impacts of the global financial crisis and responsive policies on the macro economy of China by building financial CGE model and establishing financial SAM. Besides, the corresponding comments and advice are given aiming at the conclusions. According to the results, in all the three simulated situations, global financial crisis does have great impact on the macro economy of China, making enormous downturn in total output, the demand for labor and the household welfare. While in the stimulation of the three policies, large-scale of investment has a significantly effect on company profits increase and GDP growth. Meanwhile the tax deduction policy could largely improve citizen welfare and the adjustment of interest could also promote the recovery of economy but the effects seem to be not quite obvious. When the policies could bring the increase of marginal propensity to consume, the economy tends to recover more quickly. But the risks of inflation and failure to stimulating export do exist when facing the financial crisis, so further adjustments on policies for macro economy remain to be made.
范小云, 张景松, 王博. 金融危机及其应对政策对我国宏观经济的影响——基于金融CGE模型的模拟分析[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 423(9): 50-65.
FAN Xiaoyun, ZHANG Jingsong, WANG Bo. Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis and Responsive Policies for China: A Financial CGE Analysis. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 423(9): 50-65.
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