Monetary Policy, Liquidity Shortage and Stock Price Crash Risk
DAI Bingbin, YUE Heng
International School of Business / Center for International Finance and Accounting Studies, Beijing International Studies University; Guanghua School of Management, Peking University
Abstract:
Using a sample of A-share listed firms in China for the period 2004-2012, this paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and stock price crash risk, and how the fund liquidity shortage and the stock liquidity shortage influence the relationship. The results find that, the tight monetary policy will significantly increase stock price crash risk, and the fund liquidity shortage and the stock liquidity shortage will enhance this positive relationship. It is further found that the other institutional shareholding (other than open-funds shareholding) will reduce the positive influence of the tight monetary and the fund liquidity shortage on stock price crash risk. Our paper helps enrich the literature in stock price crash risk, and also provides implications for both the formulation of monetary policy and the liquidity management.
基金资助: *本文感谢国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金项目(批准号71222204)、国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(批准号71202170、71402004)、北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养计划项目(The Importation and Development of High-Caliber Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions,项目号CIT&TCD201504003)资助。感谢匿名审稿人的宝贵意见。文责自负。
Amihud, Y. 2002. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-section and Time-series Effects”, Journal of Financial Markets, 5(1): 31~56.
[14]
Amihud, Y., H. Mendelson and R. A. Wood. 1990. “Liquidity and the 1987 Stock Market Crash”, Journal of Portfolio Management, 16(3): 65~69.
[15]
Chen, J., H. Hong, and J. C. Stein. 2001. “Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns, and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices”, Journal of Financial Economics, 61(1): 345~381.
[16]
Coval, J., and E. Stafford. 2007. “Asset Fire Sales (and Purchases) in Equity Markets”, Journal of Financial Economics, 86(2): 479~512.
[17]
Dechow P. M., R. G. Sloan and A. P. Sweeney. 1995. “Detecting Earnings Management”, The Accounting Review, 70(2):193~225.
[18]
Florackis, C., A. Gregoriou, and A. Kostakis. 2011. “Trading Frequency and Asset Pricing on London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a New Price Impact Ratio”, Journal of Bank Finance, 35(12): 3335~3350.
[19]
Florackis, C., A. Kontonikas, and A. Kostakis. 2014. “Stock Market Liquidity and Macro-liquidity Stock: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 44(3): 97~117.
[20]
Friedman, M. 1961. “The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy”, Journal of Political Economy, 69(5): 447~66.
[21]
Gennotte, G., and H. Leland. 1990. “Market liquidity, Hedging and Crashes”, American Economic Review, 80(5): 999~1021.
[22]
Hamburger, M. J. and L. A. Kochin. 1972. “Money and Stock Prices: the Channels of Influence”, Journal of Finance, 27(2): 231~249.
[23]
Homa, K. E. and D. M. Jaffee. 1971. “The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices”, Journal of Finance, 26(5): 1056~1066.
[24]
Hong, H., and J. C. Stein. 2003. “Differences of Opinion, Short-sales Constraints and Market Crashes”, Review of Financial Studies, 16(2): 487-525.
[25]
Huang, J., and J. Wang. 2009. “Liquidity and Market Crashes”, Review of Financial Studies, 22(7): 2607~2643.
[26]
Hutton, A. P., A. J. Marcus, and H. Tehranian. 2009. “Opaque Financial Reports, R2, and Crash Risk”, Journal of Financial Economics, 94(1): 67~86.
[27]
Jin, L., and S. C. Myers. 2006. “R2 around the World: New Theory and New Tests”, Journal of Financial Economics, 79(2): 257~292.
[28]
Kim, J. B., and L. Zhang. 2011. “Does Accounting Conservatism Reduces Stock Price Crash Risk?” working Paper, City University of Hong Kong.
[29]
Kim, J. B., Y. H. Li, and L. Zhang. 2011a. “Corporate Tax Avoidance and Stock Price Crash Risk: Firm-level Analysis”, Journal of Financial Economics, 100(3): 639~662.
[30]
Kim, J. B., Y. H. Li, and L. Zhang. 2011b. “CFOs versus CEOs: Equity Incentives and Crashes”, Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3): 713~730.
[31]
Lastrapes, W. D. 1998. “International Evidence on Equity Prices, Interest Rates and Money”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 17(3): 377~406.
[32]
Mitchell, M., L. H. Pedersen, and T. Pulvino. 2007. “Slow Moving Capital”, American Economic Review, 97(2): 215~220.
[33]
Petersen, M. A. 2009. “Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches”, Review of financial studies, 22(1): 435~480.
[34]
Romer, D. 1993. “Rational Asset-price Movements without News”, American Economic Review, 83(5): 1112-1130.
[35]
Sprinkel, B. W. 1964. “Money and Stock Prices”, Richard D. Irwin Inc., Homewood, Illinois.
[36]
Thorbecke, W. 1997. “On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Finance, 52(2): 635~654.
[37]
White, L. H. 2008. “How Did We Get into this Financial Mess?” Cato Institute Briefing Papers, 110(1): 1~8.
[38]
Yuan, K. 2005. “Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints”, Journal of Finance, 60(1): 379~411.
[39]
Zhang, H. 2009. “Asset Fire Sales, Liquidity Provision and Mutual Fund Performance”, working paper, University of Texas at Austin.