Please wait a minute...
金融研究  2017, Vol. 447 Issue (9): 18-34    DOI: 10.12094/1002-7246(2017)09-0018-17
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
欧洲量化宽松政策对中国企业出口影响——一个汇率网状溢出效应视角
张靖佳, 孙浦阳, 古芳
南开大学APEC研究中心,天津 300071;
南开大学经济学院,天津 300071;
清华大学经济管理学院,北京 100084
European Quantitative Easing Policy Impact onChina's Manufacturing Export: A Viewpoint of Exchange Rate Network Spillover Effects
ZHANG Jingjia, SUN Puyang, GU Fang
APEC Study Center, Nankai University;
School of Economics, Nankai University;
School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
下载:  PDF (1298KB) 
输出:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 本文首次构建了欧洲量化宽松政策的汇率溢出效应对我国微观企业出口行为影响的理论模型,运用面板固定效应模型有效检验了欧洲量化宽松政策汇率溢出效应对我国微观企业出口行为的影响。研究结果表明:(1)从总体效果来看,欧洲量化宽松政策的汇率溢出效应促进了我国企业出口额和出口量的增长;(2)我国企业对出现升值反应的国家出口额(量)增加使我国企业对出现贬值反应的国家出口额(量)缩减;(3)我国企业对相对人民币升值的国家出口额(量)增加,对相对人民币贬值的国家出口额(量)缩减;(4)一般贸易在汇率溢出效应的影响下,出口额和出口量增长幅度最大,而加工贸易企业的出口行为受到的影响最小;(5)汇率溢出效应对外资企业和民营企业的出口积极影响最大,国有出口企业受到的影响最小。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
张靖佳
孙浦阳
古芳
关键词:  欧洲量化宽松政策  汇率溢出效应  微观企业出口行为    
Abstract:  We develop a theoretical model of European quantitative easing policy impact on Chinese export through the perspective of exchange rate spillover effects for the first time. We also test the exchange rate spillover effects on exporters in China with the panel fixed effect model. Our results show that, firstly, the spillover effects stimulate the export value and volume of Chinese firms on the whole. Secondly, it turns out that when firms export to a destination country which appreciates under the influence of European quantitative easing policy, the export value and volume will be improved, and the results are opposite for the countries depreciate. Thirdly, we find that the export value and volume improved when we export to the countries appreciate relative to China, and vice versa for the counterpart. Furthermore, our results show that the ordinary trade will be affected most compared to the processing trade.The impacts of exchange rate spillover effect on state-owned-enterprises are limited, while foreign-owned-enterprises will benefit most from European quantitative easing policy.
Key words:  European Quantitative Easing Policy    Exchange Rate Spillover Effects    Micro Enterprise Exporting Behavior
JEL分类号:  E52   F31   D22  
基金资助:  为中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心成果。作为教育部重点研究基地重大研究项目(项目批准号:16JJD790026)的重要阶段性成果,同时国家社科项目“国际金融危机对发展中国家发展的影响研究”(项目编号:12BJL049)。
作者简介:  张靖佳,副教授,南开大学APEC研究中心,Email: vanillajiajia@163.com.
孙浦阳(通讯作者),教授,南开大学经济学院,南开大学跨国公司研究中心,南开大学社会主义经济协同创新中心,Email: puyangsun@nankai.edu.cn.
古芳,经济学硕士研究生,清华大学经济管理学院,Email:gufangjy@126.com.
引用本文:    
张靖佳, 孙浦阳, 古芳. 欧洲量化宽松政策对中国企业出口影响——一个汇率网状溢出效应视角[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 447(9): 18-34.
ZHANG Jingjia, SUN Puyang, GU Fang. European Quantitative Easing Policy Impact onChina's Manufacturing Export: A Viewpoint of Exchange Rate Network Spillover Effects. Journal of Financial Research, 2017, 447(9): 18-34.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/10.12094/1002-7246(2017)09-0018-17  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V447/I9/18
[1] 陈磊和侯鹏,2011,《量化宽松, 流动性溢出与新兴市场通货膨胀》,《财经科学》第10期,第48~56页。
陈磊和侯鹏,2011,《量化宽松, 流动性溢出与新兴市场通货膨胀》,《财经科学》第10期,第48~56页。
[2] 戴觅、徐建炜和施炳展,2013,《人民币汇率冲击与制造业就业——来自企业数据的经验证据》,《管理世界》第11期,第14~27页。
戴觅、徐建炜和施炳展,2013,《人民币汇率冲击与制造业就业——来自企业数据的经验证据》,《管理世界》第11期,第14~27页。
[3] 刘克崮和翟晨曦,2011,《调整五大战略, 应对美量化宽松政策》,《管理世界》第4期,第1~5页。
刘克崮和翟晨曦,2011,《调整五大战略, 应对美量化宽松政策》,《管理世界》第4期,第1~5页。
[4] 刘澜飚和文艺,2014,《美国量化宽松货币政策退出对亚太经济体的影响》,《南开学报》第2期,第142~150页。
刘澜飚和文艺,2014,《美国量化宽松货币政策退出对亚太经济体的影响》,《南开学报》第2期,第142~150页。
[5] 徐建伟和余明,2003,《人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响》,《世界经济》第11期,第21~34页。
徐建伟和余明,2003,《人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响》,《世界经济》第11期,第21~34页。
[6] 李宏彬、马弘、熊艳艳和徐嫄,2011,《人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究》,《金融研究》第2期,第1~16页。
李宏彬、马弘、熊艳艳和徐嫄,2011,《人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究》,《金融研究》第2期,第1~16页。
[7] 孙浦阳、张靖佳和高恺琳,2016,《量化宽松政策对于企业出口价格的影响研究——基于微观数据的理论与实证研究》,《管理世界》第11期,第53~64页。
孙浦阳、张靖佳和高恺琳,2016,《量化宽松政策对于企业出口价格的影响研究——基于微观数据的理论与实证研究》,《管理世界》第11期,第53~64页。
[8] 苏治、尹力博和方彤,2015,《量化宽松与国际大宗商品市场: 溢出性, 非对称性和长记忆性》,《金融研究》第3期,第68~82页。
苏治、尹力博和方彤,2015,《量化宽松与国际大宗商品市场: 溢出性, 非对称性和长记忆性》,《金融研究》第3期,第68~82页。
[9] 许家云、佟家栋和毛其淋,2015,《人民币汇率变动, 产品排序与多产品企业的出口行为——以中国制造业企业为例》,《管理世界》第2期,第17~31页。
许家云、佟家栋和毛其淋,2015,《人民币汇率变动, 产品排序与多产品企业的出口行为——以中国制造业企业为例》,《管理世界》第2期,第17~31页。
[10] 张会清和唐海燕,2012,《人民币升值, 企业行为与出口贸易——基于大样本企业数据的实证研究: 2005~ 2009》,《管理世界》第12期,第23~34页。
张会清和唐海燕,2012,《人民币升值, 企业行为与出口贸易——基于大样本企业数据的实证研究: 2005~ 2009》,《管理世界》第12期,第23~34页。
[11] 赵然和苏治,2012,《升值预期真的驱动国际游资流入中国了吗——基于四重套利和边限协整模型的新证据》,《金融研究》第6期,第95~109页。
赵然和苏治,2012,《升值预期真的驱动国际游资流入中国了吗——基于四重套利和边限协整模型的新证据》,《金融研究》第6期,第95~109页。
[12] Ahmed, S., 2009, “Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?” Federal Reserve Discussion Papers No. 987.
Ahmed, S., 2009, “Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?” Federal Reserve Discussion Papers No. 987.
[13] Aziz, J. and X. Li, 2007, “China's Changing Trade Elasticities,” IMF Working Papers 07/266.
Aziz, J. and X. Li, 2007, “China's Changing Trade Elasticities,” IMF Working Papers 07/266.
[14] Berman, N., Martin, P., and Mayer, T., 2012, “How Do Different Exporters React To Exchange Rate Changes?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1), pp. 437~492.
Berman, N., Martin, P., and Mayer, T., 2012, “How Do Different Exporters React To Exchange Rate Changes?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1), pp. 437~492.
[15] Bernanke B. S., 2010, “Rebalancing the Global Recovery,” Sixth European Central Bank Central Banking Conference Paper.
Bernanke B. S., 2010, “Rebalancing the Global Recovery,” Sixth European Central Bank Central Banking Conference Paper.
[16] Bowman, D., J. M. Londono, and H. Sapriza, 2014, “U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1109, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Bowman, D., J. M. Londono, and H. Sapriza, 2014, “U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1109, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[17] Bauer, M. and Neely, C., 2013, “International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper.
Bauer, M. and Neely, C., 2013, “International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper.
[18] Bauer, M. and Rudebusch, G., 2013, “The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off,”Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2012~12.
Bauer, M. and Rudebusch, G., 2013, “The Shadow Rate, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Lift-off,”Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2012~12.
[19] Chen Q., A. Filardo, D. He, and F. Zhu, 2012, “International Spillovers of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies,” BIS Working Papers.
Chen Q., A. Filardo, D. He, and F. Zhu, 2012, “International Spillovers of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies,” BIS Working Papers.
[20] Chinn, Menzie D., 2013, “Global Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy,” BIS Working Paper 436.
Chinn, Menzie D., 2013, “Global Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy,” BIS Working Paper 436.
[21] Christensen, J. and Rudebusch, G. , 2012, “The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing,” The Economic Journal, 122(564), pp. 385~414.
Christensen, J. and Rudebusch, G. , 2012, “The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing,” The Economic Journal, 122(564), pp. 385~414.
[22] Diez, F. and I. Presno, 2014, “Domestic and Foreign Announcements on Unconventional Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates,” Working Paper of Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Diez, F. and I. Presno, 2014, “Domestic and Foreign Announcements on Unconventional Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates,” Working Paper of Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
[23] Dees, S., 2001, “The Real Exchange Rate and Types of Trade: Heterogeneity of Trade Behaviors in China,” CEPII Working Paper.
Dees, S., 2001, “The Real Exchange Rate and Types of Trade: Heterogeneity of Trade Behaviors in China,” CEPII Working Paper.
[24] Eichengreen B., 2013, “Currency War or International Policy Coordination,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 5, pp. 1~9.
Eichengreen B., 2013, “Currency War or International Policy Coordination,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 5, pp. 1~9.
[25] Eser F. and B. Schwaab, 2016, “Evaluating the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Empirical Evidence from the ECB' s Securities Markets Programme,” Journal of Financial Economics, 119(1), pp. 147~167.
Eser F. and B. Schwaab, 2016, “Evaluating the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Empirical Evidence from the ECB' s Securities Markets Programme,” Journal of Financial Economics, 119(1), pp. 147~167.
[26] Fratzscher, Marcel, Marco Lo Duca, and Roland Straub., 2014, “ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Actions: Market Impact, International Spillovers and Transmission Channels,” 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference Paper, November 13~14.
Fratzscher, Marcel, Marco Lo Duca, and Roland Straub., 2014, “ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Actions: Market Impact, International Spillovers and Transmission Channels,” 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference Paper, November 13~14.
[27] Freund, C., H. Chang and S. J. Wei, 2011, “China's Trade Response to Exchange Rate,” The 68th International Atlantic Economic Conference Paper.
Freund, C., H. Chang and S. J. Wei, 2011, “China's Trade Response to Exchange Rate,” The 68th International Atlantic Economic Conference Paper.
[28] Garcia-Herrero, A. and T. Koivu, 2009, “China's Exchange Rate Policy and Asia Trade,” Bank of International Settlements Working Paper 282.
Garcia-Herrero, A. and T. Koivu, 2009, “China's Exchange Rate Policy and Asia Trade,” Bank of International Settlements Working Paper 282.
[29] Hooper, Peter, Karen Johnson, and Jaime Marquez, 2000, “Trade Elasticities for the G-7 Countries,” Princeton Studies in International Economics, 87.
Hooper, Peter, Karen Johnson, and Jaime Marquez, 2000, “Trade Elasticities for the G-7 Countries,” Princeton Studies in International Economics, 87.
[30] Hristov N, Hülsewig O, Wollmershäuser T., 2014, “The Interest Rate Pass-through in the Euro Area during the Global Financial Crisis,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 48, pp. 104~119.
Hristov N, Hülsewig O, Wollmershäuser T., 2014, “The Interest Rate Pass-through in the Euro Area during the Global Financial Crisis,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 48, pp. 104~119.
[31] Jannsen, Nils and Melanie Klein, 2011, “The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks,” Kiel Working Paper 1718, Kiel, Germany: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Jannsen, Nils and Melanie Klein, 2011, “The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks,” Kiel Working Paper 1718, Kiel, Germany: Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
[32] Kawai, M., 2015, “International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: US Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing and Bank of Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Easing,” ADBI Working Paper Series.
Kawai, M., 2015, “International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: US Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing and Bank of Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Easing,” ADBI Working Paper Series.
[33] Krishnamurthy, A. and Vissing-Jorgensen, A. ,2011, “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 2, pp. 215~287.
Krishnamurthy, A. and Vissing-Jorgensen, A. ,2011, “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 2, pp. 215~287.
[34] Li, Hongbin, Hong Ma, and Yuan Xu, 2015, “How Do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Chinese Exports?—A Firm-level Investigation,” Journal of International Economics 97(1), pp. 148~161.
Li, Hongbin, Hong Ma, and Yuan Xu, 2015, “How Do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Chinese Exports?—A Firm-level Investigation,” Journal of International Economics 97(1), pp. 148~161.
[35] Liu, Qing, Yi Lub, and Yingke Zhoub, 2013, “Do Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Changes? Inference from China's Exchange Rate Reform,” Working Paper.
Liu, Qing, Yi Lub, and Yingke Zhoub, 2013, “Do Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Changes? Inference from China's Exchange Rate Reform,” Working Paper.
[36] Morgan P. J., 2011, “Impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Asia,” Macroeconomics Working Papers 23215, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
Morgan P. J., 2011, “Impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Asia,” Macroeconomics Working Papers 23215, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
[37] Mylonidis, N. and I. Stamopoulou, 2011, “The Role of Monetary Policy in Managing the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate,” MPRA Working Paper No. 29291.
Mylonidis, N. and I. Stamopoulou, 2011, “The Role of Monetary Policy in Managing the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate,” MPRA Working Paper No. 29291.
[38] Palley, T., 2011, “Quantitative Easing: A Keynesian Critique,” Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper No. 252.
Palley, T., 2011, “Quantitative Easing: A Keynesian Critique,” Political Economy Research Institute Working Paper No. 252.
[39] Portes, R., 2010, “Currency Wars and the Emerging Market Countries,” Global Perspectives on the Seoul G-20 Summit,pp. 47~51.
Portes, R., 2010, “Currency Wars and the Emerging Market Countries,” Global Perspectives on the Seoul G-20 Summit,pp. 47~51.
[40] Peersman, Gert., 2011, “Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area.”
Peersman, Gert., 2011, “Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area.”
[41] Rogers, J. H., C. Scotti, and J. H. Wright, 2014, “Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Rogers, J. H., C. Scotti, and J. H. Wright, 2014, “Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[42] Spantig, K., 2012, “International Monetary Policy Spillovers in an Asymmetric World Monetary System-The United States and China,” Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
Spantig, K., 2012, “International Monetary Policy Spillovers in an Asymmetric World Monetary System-The United States and China,” Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
[43] Thorbecke, W., and G. Smith, 2010, “How Would an Appreciation of the RMB and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?” Review of International Economics, 18(1), pp. 95~108.
Thorbecke, W., and G. Smith, 2010, “How Would an Appreciation of the RMB and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?” Review of International Economics, 18(1), pp. 95~108.
[44] Volz, U., 2012, “Financial Stability in Emerging Markets,” DIE Working Paper, 2012.
Volz, U., 2012, “Financial Stability in Emerging Markets,” DIE Working Paper, 2012.
[1] 闫先东, 张鹏辉. 土地价格、土地财政与宏观经济波动[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 471(9): 1-18.
[2] 贾盾, 孙溪, 郭瑞. 货币政策公告、政策不确定性及股票市场的预公告溢价效应——来自中国市场的证据[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 469(7): 76-95.
[3] 彭洋, 张龙, 吴莉昀. 时变概率的区制转换泰勒规则设计及其“稳定器”作用机制研究[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 469(7): 19-37.
[4] 杨筝, 王红建, 戴静, 许传华. 放松利率管制、利润率均等化与实体企业“脱实向虚”[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 468(6): 20-38.
[5] 姜富伟, 郭鹏, 郭豫媚. 美联储货币政策对我国资产价格的影响[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 467(5): 37-55.
[6] 石峰, 王忏. 耐用品、投资专有冲击与货币政策福利[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 467(5): 1-16.
[7] 陈雨露. 四十年来中央银行的研究进展及中国的实践[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 464(2): 1-19.
[8] 郭晔, 徐菲, 舒中桥. 银行竞争背景下定向降准政策的“普惠”效应——基于A股和新三板三农、小微企业数据的分析[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 463(1): 1-18.
[9] 郭豫媚, 戴赜, 彭俞超. 中国货币政策利率传导效率研究:2008-2017[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 462(12): 37-54.
[10] 温信祥, 苏乃芳. 大资管、影子银行与货币政策传导[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 460(10): 38-54.
[11] 郑挺国, 赵丽娟, 宋涛. 房地产价格失调与时变货币政策立场识别[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 459(9): 1-18.
[12] 姚前. 共识规则下的货币演化逻辑与法定数字货币的人工智能发行[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 459(9): 37-55.
[13] 汪勇, 马新彬, 周俊仰. 货币政策与异质性企业杠杆率——基于纵向产业结构的视角[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 455(5): 47-64.
[14] 战明华, 李欢. 金融市场化进程是否改变了中国货币政策不同传导渠道的相对效应?[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 455(5): 20-36.
[15] 郭晔, 程玉伟, 黄振. 货币政策、同业业务与银行流动性创造[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 455(5): 65-81.
[1] 王曦, 朱立挺, 王凯立. 我国货币政策是否关注资产价格?——基于马尔科夫区制转换BEKK多元GARCH模型[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 1 -17 .
[2] 刘勇政, 李岩. 中国的高速铁路建设与城市经济增长[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 18 -33 .
[3] 况伟大, 王琪琳. 房价波动、房贷规模与银行资本充足率[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 34 -48 .
[4] 祝树金, 赵玉龙. 资源错配与企业的出口行为——基于中国工业企业数据的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 49 -64 .
[5] 陈德球, 陈运森, 董志勇. 政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 65 -80 .
[6] 牟敦果, 王沛英. 中国能源价格内生性研究及货币政策选择分析[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 81 -95 .
[7] 高铭, 江嘉骏, 陈佳, 刘玉珍. 谁说女子不如儿郎?——P2P投资行为与过度自信[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 96 -111 .
[8] 吕若思, 刘青, 黄灿, 胡海燕, 卢进勇. 外资在华并购是否改善目标企业经营绩效?——基于企业层面的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 112 -127 .
[9] 姜军, 申丹琳, 江轩宇, 伊志宏. 债权人保护与企业创新[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 128 -142 .
[10] 刘莎莎, 孔高文. 信息搜寻、个人投资者交易与股价联动异象——基于股票送转的研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 143 -157 .
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《金融研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn
京ICP备11029882号-1