Abstract:
This paper studies the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy, house prices fluctuation on consumption. Then, two specific impact paths of monetary policy and house prices on consumption are identified. Research shows that there is a direct path of China’s monetary policy’s influence on consumption,and there is also indirect influence path of house prices on consumption through monetary policy. Moreover, the influences of these two paths on consumption are nonlinear and time-varying characteristics. However, the direct effect of house prices on consumption does not exist, and the indirect effect of monetary policy affect the consumer by housing prices does not exist. Therefore, in the short term, the Central Bank can adopt structural monetary policy to enhance consumer demand. But in the long term, regulation of house prices are needed to expand consumption.
龙少波, 陈璋, 胡国良. 货币政策、房价波动对居民消费影响的路径研究[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 432(6): 52-66.
LONG Shaobo, CHEN Zhang, HU Guoliang. Effects of Monetary Policy and House Prices Fluctuations on Residents' Consumption. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 432(6): 52-66.
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