Abstract:
This paper selects seven key indicators by using the stepwise regression and establishes a logit model on panel data of the influencing factors of Rural Credit Cooperatives regional risk including Z province’s 81 Rural Credit Cooperatives from 2006 to 2012. The results show that GDP growth, capital adequacy ratio, the proportion of non-interest income, provision coverage, ROE and industrial regulations help alleviate Rural Credit Cooperatives’ regional risk, and an increase of ratio of loan assets deteriorates the regional risk. This paper suggest that Rural Credit Cooperatives’ regional risk should be further concerned; increasing the capital, promoting diversified development, increasing the level of asset returns, and exerting industrial regulation’s function should be necessary in the future.
钱水土, 陈鑫云. 农村信用社区域性风险影响因素分析——基于面板数据Logit模型[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 435(9): 115-130.
QIAN Shuitu , CHEN Xinyun. On the Influencing Factors of Rural Credit Cooperatives’ Regional Risk:Based on the Logit Model of Panel Data. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 435(9): 115-130.
Angkinand,A.P. and Willett,T.D.,2011. “Exchange Rate Regimes and Banking Crises: The Channels of Influence Investigated,” International Journal of Finance & Economics,16(3): 256~274.
[15]
Avery,R. B. and Hanweck,G. A.,1984. “A Dynamic Analysis of Bank Failures,” Bank Structure and Competition,Conference Proceedings,Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,380~395.
[16]
Bordo,M.D. and Meissner,C.M.,2012. “Does Inequality Lead to A Financial Crisis?” Journal of International Money and Finance,31(8): 2147~2161.
[17]
Bunda,I. and Ca’Zorzi,M.,2010. “Signals from Housing and Lending Booms,” Emerging Markets Review,11(1): 1~20.
[18]
Connor,G.,Flavin,T. and O’Kelly,B.,2012. “The U.S. and Irish Credit Crises: Their Distinctive Differences and Common Features,” Journal of International Money and Finance,31(1): 60~79.
[19]
Davis,E. P. and Karim,D.,2008. “Could Early Warning System Have Helped To Predicted The Sub-Prime Crises?” National Institute Economic Review,206(1): 35~47.
[20]
Davis,E.P. and Karim,D.,2008. “Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises,” Journal of Financial Stability,4(2):89~120.
[21]
Davis,P.E.,Karim,D.,and Liadze,I.,2011. “Should Multivariate Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises Pool across Regions?” Review of World Economics,147(4):693~716.
[22]
Demirgüc-Kunt,A.,1989. “Deposit-Institution Failures: A Review of Empirical Literature,” Economic Review,1989(iv):2~18.
[23]
Demirgüc-Kunt,A. and Detragiache,E. 2000. “Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach”,World Bank Economic Review,Oxford University Press,14(2):287~307.
[24]
Demirgüc-Kunt,A. and Detragiache,E. 2005. “Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey,” National Institute Economic Review,192(1): 68~83.
[25]
Gajewski,G. R,1988. “Bank Risk,Regulator Behavior,and Bank Closure in the Mid-1980s: A Two-Step Logit Model,” Ph.D. Dissertation,George Washington University.
[26]
Hagen,V. J. and Ho,T.-K.,2007. “Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises,” Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,39(5):1037~1066.
[27]
Heyliger,W. E. and Holdren,D. P.,1991. “Predicting Small Bank Failure,” The Journal of Small Business Finance,1(2):125~140.
[28]
Hidayat,W. Y.,Kakinaka,M. and Miyamoto,H.,2012. “Bank Risk and Non-Interest Income Activities in the Indonesian Banking Industry,” Journal of Asian Economics,23:335~343.
[29]
Joyce,J.P.,2011. “Financial Crises,Credit Booms and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons,” Open Economies Review,22(5): 875~895.
[30]
Kauko,K.,2014. “How to Foresee Banking Crises,A Survey of Empirical Literature,” Economic Systems,38(3):289~308.
[31]
Kliestik,T.,Kocisova K. and Misankova M.,2015. “Logit and Probit Model Used for Prediction of Financial Health of Company,” Procedia Economics and Finance,23:850~855.
[32]
Kohler,M. 2014. “Does Non-interest Income Make Banks More Risky? Retail-Versus Investment-Oriented Banks,” Review of Financial Economics,23:182~193.
[33]
Martin,D.,1977,“Early Warning of Bank Failure: A Logit Regression Approach,” Journal of Banking & Finance,1(3):249~276.
[34]
Rose,A. K. and Spiegel,M. M.,2012. “Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning,” Japan and The World Economy,24(1):1~16.
[35]
Schularick,M. and Taylor,A.M.,2012. “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy,Leverage Cycles,and Financial Crises,1870-2008,” American Economic Review,102(2):1029~1061.
[36]
Tseng,F. M. & Hu Y. C.,2010. “Comparing Four Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Logit,Quadratic Interval Logit,Neural and Fuzzy Neural Networks,” Expert Systems with Applications,37:1846~1853.
