Abstract:
The United Nations and the World Bank set up the International Comparison Program (ICP) to measure the currency purchasing power parity (PPP) of an economy. The PPPs are not only recommended in the comparison of international economic size and structure, but also widely applied in the social and economic management. This paper intends to investigate the change characters of the PPPs and the main influence factors with a sample of 77 economies ranging from 2001 to 2013. The results find that the average change amplitude of the PPPs in the high income economies is relatively small while that in the low income economies especially the lower middle income economies is bigger. Along with the income rising, the change amplitude of the PPPs will increase at first and then fall. The econometric analysis also shows the PPP change can be explained by the factors including the income per capita, exchange rate, money supply, foreign direct investment, foreign trade, urbanization and employment level. The economic growth and money supply will drive up the PPPs of an economy, while the appreciation of exchange rate and the rise of foreign trade dependence are usually followed by the decline of PPPs. In addition, the PPPs always change in the same direction with the urbanization of an economy but in the opposite direction with the employment level.
陈梦根, 牛华. 购买力平价变动影响因素研究:国际视角[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 435(9): 82-98.
CHEN Menggen , NIU Hua. The Study on the Influence Factors of Purchasing Power Parity Change: An International Perspective. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 435(9): 82-98.
Aitken,B.J.,and A.E. Harrison. 1999,“Do Domestic Firms Benefit From Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela”,American Economic Review,89(3): 605~618.
[9]
Arellano,M.,and S. Bond. 1991,“Some Test of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Applicaion to Employment Equations”,Review of Economic Studies,58(2): 277~297.
[10]
Asea,P.K.,and E.G. Mendoza. 1994,“The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-equilibrium Appraisal”,Review of International Economics,2(3): 244~267.
[11]
Balassa,B. 1964,“The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal”,The Journal of Political Economics,72(6): 584~596.
[12]
Cassel,G. 1922,“Money and Foreign Exchange after 1914”,The Macmillan Company,New York.
[13]
Cheung,Y.W.,M.D. Chinn,and E. Fujii. 2007,“The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation”,Journal of International Money and Finance,26(5): 762~785.
[14]
Deaton,A.,and A. Heston. 2008,“Understanding PPPs and PPP-based National Account”,NBER Working Paper,No.14499.
[15]
Deaton,A.,and B. Aten. 2014,“Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP2011: Why Are the Results so Different? ” NBER Working Paper,No.20244.
[16]
Feenstra,R.C.,and J.D. Kendall. 1994,“Pass through of Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity”,NBRE Working Paper,No. 4842.
[17]
Froot,K.A.,and K. Rogoff. 1991,“The EMS,the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency”,in NBER Macroeconomics Annual,ed. by OlivierBlanchard and Stanley Fischer,Cambridge,MIT Press: 269~317.
[18]
Froot,K.A.,and K. Rogoff. 1994,“Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates”,Mimeo,Harvard and Princeton Universities.
[19]
Gibert,M.,and I. Kravis. 1954,“An International Comparison of National Products and the Purchasing Power of Currencies”,OEEC,Paris.
[20]
Lee,F.,and J. Tang. 2000,“Productivity Levels and International Competitiveness between Canadian and U.S. Industries”,American Economic Review,90(2): 176~179.
[21]
Obstfeld,M.,and K. Rogoff. 2009,“Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes”,CEPR Working Paper,No.7606.
[22]
Ravallion,M. 2010,“Price Levels and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the PPP Changes between ICP Rounds”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.5229.
[23]
Rogoff,K. 1996,“The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle”,Journal of Economic Literature,34(2): 647~668.
[24]
Rudiger,D. 1976,“Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”,Journal of Political Economy,84(6): 1161~1176.
[25]
Samuelson,P.A. 1964,“Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems”. Review of Economics and Statistics,46(2): 145~154.
[26]
World Bank,2008,“Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures: 2005 International Comparison Program”,World Bank,Washington D.C.
[27]
World Bank,2012,“Measuring the Real Size of the World Economy: The Framework,Methodology,and Results of the International Comparison Program (ICP) ”,World Bank,Washington D.C.
