Can the Establishment of Clearing Banks Promote RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade: With a Discussion on the Synergistic Effect of CIPS
SONG Ke, LI Ting, ZHU Sidi
School of Finance/Shenzhen Finance Institute/ International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China; School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Agricultural Bank of China/ University of International Business and Economics
Summary:
In the current stage, while fully leveraging the role of the market, advancing the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) in a steady and prudent manner requires more policy support. As a significant measure in the process of RMB internationalization, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has actively promoted the establishment of RMB clearing banks in recent years, achieving significant progress. By the end of 2023, 33 RMB clearing banks had been authorized in 31 countries and regions. The continuous optimization of the overseas RMB clearing network will facilitate the efficient global circulation of the RMB, providing more convenient service conditions for the use of RMB in cross-border trade payments. Since the inception of the RMB clearing bank model, existing literature has explored the role of RMB clearing banks from multiple dimensions. However, these studies have two major limitations. First, the role of RMB clearing banks in promoting RMB internationalization is often described qualitatively, lacking in-depth theoretical frameworks and empirical analysis. Second, most studies focus on the impact of RMB clearing banks on specific economic and financial indicators, such as payments and trade, without comprehensively examining the underlying logic and mechanisms affecting the international use of the RMB. Therefore, exploring whether RMB clearing banks can effectively enhance the level of RMB internationalization becomes an important but unresolved issue. This paper examines whether the establishment of RMB clearing banks by the People's Bank of China in foreign countries or regions facilitates the use of RMB in these countries, thereby promoting the settlement of cross-border trade in RMB. In the empirical analysis, this paper utilizes data related to cross-border trade RMB settlement between China and other countries. It considers countries and regions that signed RMB clearing bank memorandum agreements with the People's Bank of China from January 2009 to December 2020 as the treatment group, and countries and regions that never signed such agreements during the sample period as the control group. To address potential endogeneity issues arising from reverse causality and omitted variables, this study employs a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach and controls for as many economic, financial, and institutional factors as possible. This paper makes several contributions to the literature. First, this paper draws on cross-border trade RMB settlement data from the People's Bank of China's RCPMIS database as its primary sample and conducts a robustness check using SWIFT data on actual RMB transactions. Unlike prior studies, it combines official statistical settlement figures with high-precision transaction-level data and employs cross-validation between these two sources to enhance the credibility and reliability of its conclusions, thereby overcoming the perspective limitations caused by insufficient data granularity in earlier research. Second, this paper extends the literature on determinants of cross-border trade RMB settlement. Previous research has largely focused on the domestic macro-environment, exchange-rate volatility, or trade structure, while the role of cross-border financial infrastructure has received scant attention. Exploiting the quasi-natural experiment presented by the establishment of RMB clearing banks, we empirically examine how such infrastructure affects RMB settlement in cross-border trade and unpack its underlying mechanisms. Our findings reveal an asymmetric impact of RMB clearing banks on import versus export settlement and validate two key channels, offshore RMB financing availability and bilateral exchange-rate fluctuations, through which this infrastructure operates. These results indirectly substantiate the policy rationale for establishing RMB clearing banks and enrich the research on cross-border trade RMB settlement. Third, recognizing the China International Payment System (CIPS) as another critical piece of cross-border financial infrastructure, this paper incorporates the interaction between RMB clearing banks and CIPS into its analytical framework. We systematically explore how their joint operation promotes RMB settlement in cross-border trade and demonstrate that CIPS membership amplifies the positive effects of RMB clearing banks, indicating a clear synergistic effect. The conclusions furnish new theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence to guide the continuous development of RMB-internationalization infrastructure and the prudent, steady advancement of RMB internationalization.
宋科, 李亭, 朱斯迪. 人民币清算行设立能推动跨境贸易人民币结算吗？——兼论CIPS的协同效应[J]. 金融研究, 2025, 546(12): 1-19.
SONG Ke, LI Ting, ZHU Sidi. Can the Establishment of Clearing Banks Promote RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade: With a Discussion on the Synergistic Effect of CIPS. Journal of Financial Research, 2025, 546(12): 1-19.
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