Summary:
The silverization of currency has epoch-making significance in Chinese and world history. The inflow of silver in Ming and Qing dynasties caused many changes in currency forms and trading modes, which profoundly impacted various issues such as monetary system, productivity and price level, handicraft industry and commodity economy development, fiscal and tax system, international trade balance, etc. However, most previous studies were based on specific problems in certain periods, which were numerous and disorganized. Besides making it difficult to sort out the clues, some reviews also focused on Ming or Qing dynasties separately, failing to form an overall understanding of the short-and long-term effects of silver flow. Therefore, this paper extends the study of silver flow trends to the end of Qing Dynasty based on existing scholars' global perspective on the division of two silver cycles before the middle of Qing Dynasty. This paper discusses, summarizes and comments on Chinese and foreign scholars' research from four aspects: (1) Self-production, inflow and stock estimation of silver; inflow reasons and paths; monetization motivation; (2) The influence of silver flow on monetary and financial systems; price and economic fluctuations; (3) The impact of silver flow on international trade; (4) The impact of silver flow on fiscal and tax systems; policy effects. This paper divides Ming and Qing dynasties into six periods based on the inflow or outflow of silver, excluding the early and middle Ming Dynasties. (1) From 1540s to 1630s, world silver production increased greatly, and silver from South America and Japan flowed into China through trade. This was the first great cycle of silver flow. (2) After 1640, the inflow of silver declined. (3) In the second cycle from 1700 to 1790, silver mining in Mexico and production in America continued to increase, resulting in a large amount of silver flowing into China again. (4) After 1800, world silver output declined significantly. Coupled with opium trade, the inflow of silver decreased and turned into a large-scale outflow after 1830 until 1856. (5) After 1857, silk tea export increased significantly, exceeding opium import. Coupled with another increase of world silver production, silver turned from outflow to inflow. (6) After 1873, countries switched to gold standard. Although silver price dropped dramatically, it did not improve trade terms; on the contrary, trade deficit existed until the end of Qing Dynasty. By sorting this out, we extend Flynn and Giráldez's (2002) division of the silver cycle: The second cycle should be extended to at least around 1790; while around 1860-1880 could be called the third cycle. In these six periods, the literature review also found that price, economy, financial system and trade in Ming and Qing dynasties experienced corresponding cycles. (1) In the first cycle, currency silverization existed at the monetary level, and it triggered market development and commercial prosperity in the economy. It was even called “the germination of capitalism”. On the financial system, it was the tax system reform of “one whip law”. (2) Between the first and second cycles, there was a recession. The decline of silver inflow in late Ming Dynasty led to a sharp rise in domestic silver-copper exchange ratio, deflation, economic recession, coupled with natural disasters and other factors, which eventually led to Ming Dynasty's fall. However, in early Qing Dynasty, silver inflow was still limited; with sea embargo's impact, economy did not recover and develop quickly. (3) In the second cycle from 1700 to 1790, economy prospered again and a prosperous situation appeared. A large amount of silver flowed into China again; prices continued to rise and even produced a “price revolution” in China; foreign trade continued to surplus. During Yongzheng era in Qing Dynasty, financial reforms such as “Incorporation of poll tax into land tax” and “Regularization of miscellaneous taxes” were also carried out at this time. (4) After 1800, inflow and even outflow of silver led to price deflation and economic depression. The difference is that United Kingdom and Western European countries did not fall into recession but produced industrial revolution and embarked on continuous economic growth road. So far China and West moved towards “great divergence”. (5) After 1857 due to silver inflow “Tongzhi Zhongxing” was ushered. These conclusions indicate that reviewing and evaluating existing studies on silver flow in Ming and Qing dynasties in globalization context can enable us to better link up complex and diverse studies and obtain a clearer review. Through review and evaluation, we also found many issues worthy of further study and discussion, such as monetary system's role in great divergence between China and West, how to design monetary system combining advantages and disadvantages of gold standard and legal currency system, how to design fiscal system's stabilizer role, and study of monetary competition and optimum currency area theory under Ming and Qing dynasties' background. It provides a certain direction for further study of monetary history of Ming and Qing dynasties and even Republic of China.
郭华, 何石军. 白银流动与明清经济:一个全球视角的文献评述[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 514(4): 187-206.
GUO Hua, HE Shijun. The Flow of Silver and Economy under Ming and Qing Dynasties: A Global Perspective of Literature Review. Journal of Financial Research, 2023, 514(4): 187-206.
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