Summary:
In recent years, China's economic growth has been severely constrained by the sluggish growth of domestic demand and a persistent consumption slump. While many perspectives argue that the profound adjustment of the real estate market plays a pivotal role, existing research predominantly proceeds from micro-level individual consumption decisions, centering on the “mortgage slave effect” and the “wealth effect”. These studies fail to adequately account for the macroeconomic income effects generated by the real estate sector as a crucial component of the macroeconomy, nor do they consider the heterogeneous impacts on consumption across different income cohorts resulting from the economic recession and income declines triggered by the real estate downturn. Therefore, through empirical research and theoretical modeling, this paper systematically analyzes the macro-level suppressive effects of the real estate downturn on consumption and proposes policy recommendations aimed at stabilizing consumption. Empirically, utilizing macroeconomic quarterly data from 2013 to 2024, this paper employs a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model to examine the heterogeneous impacts of declining housing prices on the consumption of different income groups. The results indicate that the economic downturn induced by declining housing prices exerts significantly heterogeneous shocks across cohorts: facing severe credit constraints, low-income groups experience a contraction in consumption that far exceeds that of high-income groups in both magnitude and speed, rendering them the core drivers dragging down aggregate consumption. To explain in depth the mechanisms behind this phenomenon, this paper constructs a Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model comprising credit-unconstrained high-income households and credit-constrained low-income households. The analysis demonstrates that declining housing prices exacerbate the economic downturn through the financial friction and land finance channels. Because low-income households are credit-constrained and unable to smooth consumption via borrowing, their consumption expenditure is strongly correlated with their current income; thus, the income decline caused by the recession directly compresses their consumption. In contrast, high-income households can buffer income volatility by adjusting savings to achieve intertemporal consumption smoothing, rendering their consumption less susceptible to economic downturns. Consequently, the drastic decline in the consumption of low-income households is the critical factor pulling down aggregate consumption. Furthermore, when the proportion of low-income households increases, their consumption decline triggers a negative feedback loop, characterized by falling output in the non-real estate sector, plunging labor demand, and accelerating wage cuts, which leads to an accelerating contraction in aggregate consumption. Based on these findings, this paper explores policy measures to mitigate the consumption slump. Given that low-income households are credit-constrained, the interest rate transmission channel of monetary policy has limited direct impact on this group. While interest rate cuts are highly effective in mitigating the investment slump, their role in alleviating the consumption decline among low-income households is limited. Mitigating the consumption decline of low-income households therefore requires fiscal policy: consumption subsidies exhibit the most significant effect on stabilizing aggregate consumption, whereas government spending performs best in cushioning the decline in output. Policy practices must emphasize the synergy between monetary and fiscal policies: monetary policy creates an accommodative environment to boost investment, while fiscal policy directly activates the consumption demand of low-income groups to drive consumption. Together, they form a dual-engine framework driven by both investment and consumption, synergistically resolving the dilemma of deficient domestic demand. The innovations and contributions of this paper are threefold. First, by incorporating the macroeconomic impacts of the profound real estate adjustment into the analytical framework, it systematically elucidates the macro mechanisms through which the real estate downturn suppresses consumption via the financial friction and land finance channels, thereby providing a systemic macroeconomic perspective for understanding the real estate-consumption nexus. Second, through the BVAR and TANK models, it reveals the transmission path through which declining housing prices induce an economic recession and low-income household consumption drags down aggregate consumption, systematically analyzing the critical role of heterogeneous households therein. Third, it systematically evaluates the effects of macroeconomic policy within a heterogeneous-household framework, revealing both the limitations of monetary policy in boosting consumption and the significant advantages of fiscal policy. This provides theoretical support for the precise design of macroeconomic policies during periods of profound economic adjustment.
梅冬州, 王宝玲. 房地产下行背景下提振居民消费的宏观政策研究[J]. 金融研究, 2026, 554(8): 19-37.
MEI Dongzhou, WANG Baoling. Macroeconomic Policies for Boosting Household Consumption Amid a Real Estate Downturn. Journal of Financial Research, 2026, 554(8): 19-37.
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