Abstract:
The establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Experimental Zone (hereinafter referred to as FTZ) as the extremely important policy experiment to promote the reform and opening up, what is its performance and related effects of system innovation has been the very time that urgent to summarize and assess carefully. Based on this. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade in goods import and export to the different impact of the establishment of FTZ, and further from the point of view of capital flows, and empirically examines the influence of capital flow in Shanghai with the foundation of FTZ in the sample period .We got the following conclusions: (1) FTZ establishment has a significant positive impact on the import of goods trade, but exports of goods trade is not significant, that is, the establishment of free trade zone has a significant negative impact on the net exports of goods trade. (2) based on the research of fuzzy breakpoint regression design and nonlinear double difference model, it is found that the establishment of free trade zone has a significant positive effect on the capital flow in Shanghai area. Decreased entrepreneur confidence will lead to an increase in capital outflows, and the FTZ has a certain extent impact. (3) Based on the investigation of non-parametric estimation for different width case, it shows that the benchmark result of marking variables is very steady. Meanwhile, in order to exclude the particularity of Guangdong, Tianjin, Fujian etc, we made a re-test by using the way of eliminating and extending the sample period to further verifies the accuracy of the foregoing conclusions.
项后军, 何 康, 于 洋. 自贸区设立、贸易发展与资本流动——基于上海自贸区的研究[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 436(10): 48-63.
XIANG Houjun, HE Kang, YU Yang. Establishment of FTZ, Trade Development and Capital Flows: Based on the Perspective of Shanghai Free Trade Zone. Journal of Financial Research, 2016, 436(10): 48-63.
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