Please wait a minute...
金融研究  2024, Vol. 528 Issue (6): 60-77    
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
房价波动对地方政府债务稳定性的影响——基于隐性担保和支出效率的分析
王劲松, 唐洛秋, 黄佳祥, 武文慧, 韩向宇
杭州师范大学经济学院, 浙江杭州 311121;
上海财经大学金融学院, 上海 200433;
南京银行杭州未来科技城支行, 浙江杭州 311121
The Impact of House Price Fluctuations on Local Government Debt Stability —— An Analysis Based on Implicit Guarantees and Expenditure Efficiency
Wang Jinsong, Tang Luoqiu, Huang Jiaxiang, Wu Wenhui, Han Xiangyu
School of Economics, Hangzhou Normal University;
School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;
Bank of Nanjing Co., ltd, Branch of Hangzhou Future Sci-tech City
下载:  PDF (1981KB) 
输出:  BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
摘要 地方政府债务风险是当前我国重大金融风险之一,防范化解地方政府债务风险,是实现高质量发展和中国式现代化的必然要求。本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型,并将隐性担保纳入模型,在地方政府不同支出效率下,量化研究房价波动对地方债务稳定性的影响。本文发现,土地财政是房价波动影响地方政府债务稳定性的关键体制性因素;隐性担保和地方政府支出低效,均会加剧房价波动对地方政府债务稳定性的影响;政府支出效率提高,能显著削弱“房价—地方债”反馈机制。为维护地方政府债务稳定,必须遏制地方政府土地融资行为和对国有企业隐性担保,并切实提高地方政府支出效率。
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
王劲松
唐洛秋
黄佳祥
武文慧
韩向宇
关键词:  房价波动  地方政府债务稳定性  动态随机一般均衡模型    
Summary:  Over the past two decades, the real estate market has emerged as a pivotal industry in China's economy, with housing prices continuously escalating due to rapid market development and fervent investment activities. This positive feedback loop, wherein housing and land prices mutually reinforce each other, has led to increased land grant revenues for local governments. Concurrently, local governments' financing through land sales has also surged, resulting in a burgeoning scale of local government debt. Recently, however, multiple pressures such as demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations have induced a downward trend in housing prices, thereby diminishing land grant revenues and local governments' debt-paying capacities. This has compounded the challenge of managing the substantial stock of local government debt accrued during the real estate boom. The interconnected mechanisms of housing price fluctuations, local government debt, and systemic financial risk, exacerbated by the implicit guarantees extended by local governments to state-owned enterprises and inefficiencies in government spending, have further complicated the local debt problem. If not addressed promptly, this issue could pose a significant threat to macro-financial stability.
Against this backdrop, two pertinent questions warrant in-depth examination: how will the debt stability of local governments be affected by continued fluctuations in housing prices? And what roles do implicit guarantees and government spending efficiency play in this context? To explore these questions, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model encompassing representative households, heterogeneous firms, local governments, commercial banks, and other sectors, building upon the frameworks of Iacoviello and Neri (2010) and Liu, Wang, and Zha (2013). The model incorporates realistic factors such as land finance, local governments' implicit guarantees to state-owned enterprises, and expenditure inefficiencies, providing a theoretical framework for analyzing the transmission of housing demand shocks and their impact on local government debt stability. The model parameters are calibrated and estimated based on relevant findings from authoritative literature and macroeconomic data.
The numerical simulation results indicate that local governments' land finance is an institutional factor affecting the stability of local government debt through housing price fluctuations. The implicit guarantees provided by local governments to state-owned enterprises exacerbate the impact of housing price fluctuations on the stability of local government debt and real output. These guarantees amplify the negative effects of housing price fluctuations on debt stability while improving government spending efficiency significantly mitigates the “house price-local debt” feedback mechanism. Enhancing government spending efficiency can effectively alleviate real estate market overheating and promote economic stability. However, while both increased spending efficiency and strengthened implicit guarantees can stimulate short-term economic growth, the former has a positive impact, whereas the latter may result in false prosperity.
Based on these conclusions, the paper proposes several policy recommendations. Firstly, institutional measures should be implemented to curb local governments' land financing behaviors and implicit guarantees to state-owned enterprises and to establish stable sources of local fiscal revenue. Secondly, the efficiency of local government expenditure should be improved by adjusting its structure, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing governance effectiveness. Finally, targeted fiscal policies should focus on short-term effectiveness, directing government expenditure towards key areas that drive high-quality economic development, thereby improving the efficiency of local government spending.
Existing literature has adequately explored the impact of housing price fluctuations on local government debt, typically from a singular perspective. This paper offers several innovations. Firstly, it incorporates the real factor of implicit guarantees into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, examining their role as “amplifiers” in the impact of housing price fluctuations on local government debt, thus better depicting the real characteristics of debt stability issues. Secondly, it investigates the mechanisms and effects of government spending efficiency on debt stability amidst housing price fluctuations, enriching current research and providing valuable references for policy formulation.
Future research could further enhance this study by incorporating additional economic variables, such as the macroeconomic environment and financial market volatility, to refine the model structure. Employing higher frequency data could capture the immediate effects of housing price fluctuations on local government debt. Moreover, extending the study to other countries and regions would help verify the generalizability and applicability of the findings.
Keywords:  Housing Price Fluctuation    Local Government Debt Stability    Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
JEL分类号:  E32   H50   R30  
基金资助: * 感谢国家社科基金重点项目(18AJY029)的资助。感谢匿名审稿人的宝贵意见,文责自负。
通讯作者:  武文慧,硕士研究生,杭州师范大学经济学院,E-mail:709693803@qq.com.   
作者简介:  王劲松,经济学博士,教授,杭州师范大学经济学院,E-mail:1596317308@qq.com.
唐洛秋,博士研究生,上海财经大学金融学院,E-mail:rachel__0518@163.com.
黄佳祥,硕士研究生,杭州师范大学经济学院,E-mail:1486042937@qq.com.
韩向宇,经济学硕士,南京银行杭州未来科技城支行,E-mail:924459634@qq.com.
引用本文:    
王劲松, 唐洛秋, 黄佳祥, 武文慧, 韩向宇. 房价波动对地方政府债务稳定性的影响——基于隐性担保和支出效率的分析[J]. 金融研究, 2024, 528(6): 60-77.
Wang Jinsong, Tang Luoqiu, Huang Jiaxiang, Wu Wenhui, Han Xiangyu. The Impact of House Price Fluctuations on Local Government Debt Stability —— An Analysis Based on Implicit Guarantees and Expenditure Efficiency. Journal of Financial Research, 2024, 528(6): 60-77.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V528/I6/60
[1] 陈德球、李思飞和王丛,2011,《政府质量、终极产权与公司现金持有》,《管理世界》第11期,第127~141页。
[2] 程杰和朱钰凤,2021,《劳动供给弹性估计:理解新时期中国劳动力市场转变》,《世界经济》第8期,第28~54页。
[3] 范剑勇和莫家伟,2014,《地方债务、土地市场与地区工业增长》,《经济研究》第1期,第41~55页。
[4] 高然和龚六堂,2017,《土地财政、房地产需求冲击与经济波动》,《金融研究》第4期,第32~45页。
[5] 顾海峰和朱慧萍,2023,《地方政府债务是否会影响银行系统性风险——基于土地财政、僵尸贷款及期限错配渠道》,《经济学家》第2期,第67~78页。
[6] 郭敏、段艺璇和黄亦炫,2020,《国企政策功能与我国地方政府隐性债:形成机制、度量与经济影响》,《管理世界》第12期,第36~54页。
[7] 韩鹏飞和胡奕明,2015,《政府隐性担保一定能降低债券的融资成本吗?——关于国有企业和地方融资平台债券的实证研究》,《金融研究》第3期,第116~130页。
[8] 何青、钱宗鑫和郭俊杰,2015,《房地产驱动了中国经济周期吗?》,《经济研究》第12期,第41~53页。
[9] 纪洋、王旭、谭语嫣和黄益平,2018,《经济政策不确定性、政府隐性担保与企业杠杆率分化》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期,第449~470页。
[10] 况伟大和李涛,2012,《土地出让方式、地价与房价》,《金融研究》第8期,第56~69页。
[11] 李双建和田国强,2022,《地方政府债务扩张与银行风险承担:理论模拟与经验证据》,《经济研究》第5期,第34~50页。
[12] 李玉龙,2019,《地方政府债券、土地财政与系统性金融风险》,《财经研究》第9期,第100~113页。
[13] 马文涛和马草原,2018,《政府担保的介入、稳增长的约束与地方政府债务的膨胀陷阱》,《经济研究》第5期,第72~87页。
[14] 毛锐、刘楠楠和刘蓉,2018,《地方政府债务扩张与系统性金融风险的触发机制》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第19~38页。
[15] 梅冬州、崔小勇和吴娱,2018,《房价变动、土地财政与中国经济波动》,《经济研究》第1期,第35~49页。
[16] 梅冬州、温兴春和王思卿,2021,《房价调控、地方政府债务与宏观经济波动》,《金融研究》第1期,第31~50页。
[17] 仝冰,2017,《混频数据、投资冲击与中国宏观经济波动》,《经济研究》第6期,第60~76页。
[18] 王永钦、陈映辉和杜巨澜,2016,《软预算约束与中国地方政府债务违约风险:来自金融市场的证据》,《经济研究》第11期,第96~109页。
[19] 魏伟、陈骁和张明,2018,《中国金融系统性风险:主要来源、防范路径与潜在影响》,《国际经济评论》第3期,第125~150+7页。
[20] 吴粤、王涛和竹志奇,2017,《政府投资效率与债务风险关系探究》,《财政研究》第8期,第29~42+55页。
[21] 厦门大学宏观经济研究中心CQMM课题组、李文溥、余长林和吴华坤,2017,《系统性金融风险与预算软约束》,《东南学术》第6期,第65~77+247页。
[22] 徐军伟、毛捷和管星华,2020,《地方政府隐性债务再认识——基于融资平台公司的精准界定和金融势能的视角》,《管理世界》第9期,第37~59页。
[23] 闫先东和张鹏辉,2019,《土地价格、土地财政与宏观经济波动》,《金融研究》第9期,第1~18页。
[24] 张莉、年永威和刘京军,2018,《土地市场波动与地方债——以城投债为例》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期,第1103~1126页。
[25] 张晓晶、刘学良和王佳,2019,《债务高企、风险集聚与体制变革——对发展型政府的反思与超越》,《经济研究》第6期,第4~21页。
[26] 赵扶扬、王忏和龚六堂,2017,《土地财政与中国经济波动》,《经济研究》第12期,第46~61页。
[27] 钟宁桦、陈姗姗、马惠娴和王姝晶,2021,《地方融资平台债务风险的演化——基于对“隐性担保”预期的测度》,《中国工业经济》第4期,第5~23页。
[28] 祝小全、陈卓、施展和何治国,2022,《违约风险传染的避险效应与溢出效应:隐性担保预期的视角》,《经济研究》第11期,第174~190页。
[29] Aschauer,D. A.,1989,“Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital?”,Journal of Monetary Economics, 24,pp.171~188.
[30] Calvo, G. A., 1983, “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), pp.383~398.
[31] Christian, V. D. K. and V.W. Sweder, 2014, “Financial Fragility, Sovereign Default Risk and the Limits to Commercial Bank Bail-Outs”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 43, pp.218~240.
[32] De la Croix D and C. Delavallade, 2009, “Growth, public investment and corruption with failing institutions”, Economics of Governance, 10, pp.187~219.
[33] Gertler, M. and P. Karadi, 2011, “A Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 58(1), pp.17~34.
[34] Iacoviello, M. and S. Neri, 2010, “Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), pp.125~164.
[35] Khwaja A. I. and A. Mian, 2005, “Do lenders favor politically connected firms? Rent provision in an emerging financial market”, The quarterly journal of economics, 120(4), pp.1371~1411.
[36] Kirchner, M. and S.V. Wijnbergen, 2016, “Fiscal Deficits, Financial Fragility, and the Effectiveness of Government Policies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 80, pp.51~68.
[37] Liu Z.,P. Wang, and T. Zha, 2013, “Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations”, Econometrica, 81(3), pp.1147~1184.
[1] 侯成琪, 岳树华, 师恩泽, 王桂军. 中国劳动收入份额的周期波动[J]. 金融研究, 2024, 527(5): 58-76.
[2] 侯成琪, 黄彤彤. 流动性、银行间市场摩擦与借贷便利类货币政策工具[J]. 金融研究, 2020, 483(9): 78-96.
[3] 刘建丰, 于雪, 彭俞超, 许志伟. 房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究[J]. 金融研究, 2020, 482(8): 34-53.
[4] 司登奎, 葛新宇, 曾涛, 李小林. 房价波动、金融稳定与最优宏观审慎政策[J]. 金融研究, 2019, 473(11): 38-56.
[5] 魏玮, 陈杰. 加杠杆是否一定会成为房价上涨的助推器?——来自省际面板门槛模型的证据[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 450(12): 48-63.
[6] 况伟大, 王琪琳. 房价波动、房贷规模与银行资本充足率[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 34-48.
[7] 刘行, 建蕾, 梁娟. 房价波动、抵押资产价值与企业风险承担[J]. 金融研究, 2016, 429(3): 107-123.
[8] 张浩, 李仲飞, 邓柏峻. 政策不确定、宏观冲击与房价波动——基于LSTVAR模型的实证分析[J]. 金融研究, 2015, 424(10): 32-47.
[1] 王曦, 朱立挺, 王凯立. 我国货币政策是否关注资产价格?——基于马尔科夫区制转换BEKK多元GARCH模型[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 1 -17 .
[2] 刘勇政, 李岩. 中国的高速铁路建设与城市经济增长[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 18 -33 .
[3] 况伟大, 王琪琳. 房价波动、房贷规模与银行资本充足率[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 34 -48 .
[4] 祝树金, 赵玉龙. 资源错配与企业的出口行为——基于中国工业企业数据的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 49 -64 .
[5] 陈德球, 陈运森, 董志勇. 政策不确定性、市场竞争与资本配置[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 65 -80 .
[6] 牟敦果, 王沛英. 中国能源价格内生性研究及货币政策选择分析[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 81 -95 .
[7] 高铭, 江嘉骏, 陈佳, 刘玉珍. 谁说女子不如儿郎?——P2P投资行为与过度自信[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 96 -111 .
[8] 吕若思, 刘青, 黄灿, 胡海燕, 卢进勇. 外资在华并购是否改善目标企业经营绩效?——基于企业层面的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 112 -127 .
[9] 姜军, 申丹琳, 江轩宇, 伊志宏. 债权人保护与企业创新[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 128 -142 .
[10] 刘莎莎, 孔高文. 信息搜寻、个人投资者交易与股价联动异象——基于股票送转的研究[J]. 金融研究, 2017, 449(11): 143 -157 .
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《金融研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn
京ICP备11029882号-1