Summary:
Economic green transition is a profound revolution that determines economic high-quality development, in which monetary policy plays an important role of guiding financial allocations. Green structural monetary policy with its precise and direct speciality, supports key areas for carbon reduction, and has become one of the most important macroeconomic regulation tools for the People's Bank of China to help achieve the dual carbon goals. However, China's green structural monetary policy is still in the stage that needs improvement, and divergent expectations about the policy may affect its real effectiveness. What are the real effects of green structural monetary policy on advancing economic green transition in China？ What are the specific mechanisms of the influence？ How do green policy expectations affect the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy？ The in-depth study on the above questions has important practical significance for monetary policy to better promote economic green transition. Combining theoretical modeling and empirical testing methods, this paper systematically studies how the green structural monetary policy influences micro enterprises' green investment and macroeconomic carbon emissions. For theoretical analysis, we construct a model embedded in the climate module and green structural monetary policy, analyze the mechanisms of green structural monetary policy promoting economic green transition, and extend the model by taking into account the random distribution of policy expectations, to further investigate its effects on the transmission efficiency of green structural monetary policy. For empirical study, we use micro panel data model, local projection method based on mixed frequency data, and nonlinear local projection method to examine how the green structural monetary policy influences green investment and carbon reduction, and identify the specific transmission path. Then, we explore how the policy expectations change the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy. Finally, we conduct heterogeneous analysis of policy effects from two aspects: the green finance reform and innovation pilot zone and environmental information transparency. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Green structural monetary policy can significantly increase green investment through green credit channels and reduce carbon emissions through the path of green investment. (2) More positive green policy expectations can improve the transmission efficiency of green credit channels, thereby strengthening the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy in increasing green investment, and ultimately driving greater carbon reduction efforts. (3) Green finance policy and green structural monetary policy have positive synergy, and improving the environmental information transparency can strengthen the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy in promoting economic green transition. We propose three policy recommendations for monetary policy to support the realization of the dual carbon goal: (1) Central bank can strengthen the targeted supports of green structural monetary policy by unblocking the green credit channels, and should enhance the precise and direct transmissions of green structural monetary policy from the green investment to carbon reduction. (2) Central bank should adjust green structural monetary policy continuously and gradually, and improve policy transparency to form positive and stable green policy expectations. (3) Further stimulate the policy synergy between green structural monetary policy and other green financial policies, and increase environmental information transparency to reduce potential risks of green washing. This paper may have following academic contributions: (1) We provide a basic analytical framework for studying the economic green transition effects of green structural monetary policy. We construct a theoretical model embedded in climate module and green structural monetary policy, reveal the mechanism through which green structural monetary policy increases green investment and decreases carbon emissions. (2) From the dual dimensions of green investment and carbon emissions, we evaluate the real effects of green structural monetary policy on promoting economic green transition, and identify the specific path of green structural monetary policy→green credit→green investment→carbon emissions. (3) We reveal the influence of green policy expectations on the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy, and verify the synergy between green financial policies and the heterogeneous influence of environmental information transparency on policy effectiveness. Our study provides useful references for the central bank to further optimize the regulation of green structural monetary policy.
[1]陈国进、陈凌凌、金昊和赵向琴,2023a,《气候转型风险与宏观经济政策调控》,《经济研究》第5期,第60～78页。 [2]陈国进、丁赛杰和赵向琴,2023b,《气候政策、银行风险与宏观审慎监管创新》,《金融研究》第9期,第38～57页。 [3]陈国进、丁赛杰、赵向琴和蒋晓宇,2021,《中国绿色金融政策、融资成本与企业绿色转型——基于央行担保品政策视角》,《金融研究》第12期,第75～95页。 [4]郭俊杰和方颖,2022,《绿色信贷、融资结构与企业环境投资》,《世界经济》第8期,第57～80页。 [5]李俊成、彭俞超和王文蔚,2023,《绿色信贷政策能否促进绿色企业发展？——基于风险承担的视角》,《金融研究》第3期,第112～130页。 [6]潘冬阳、陈川祺和Michael Grubb,2021,《金融政策与经济低碳转型——基于增长视角的研究》,《金融研究》第12期,第1～19页。 [7]彭俞超和方意,2016,《结构性货币政策、产业结构升级与经济稳定》,《经济研究》第7期,第29～42+86页。 [8]王曦、王茜和陈中飞,2016,《货币政策预期与通货膨胀管理——基于消息冲击的DSGE分析》,《经济研究》第2期,第16～29页。 [9]王馨和王营,2021,《绿色信贷政策增进绿色创新研究》,《管理世界》第6期,第173～188+11页。 [10]王遥、潘冬阳、彭俞超和梁希,2019,《基于DSGE模型的绿色信贷激励政策研究》,《金融研究》第11期,第1～18页。 [11]庄子罐、贾红静和刘鼎铭,2018,《货币政策的宏观经济效应研究:预期与未预期冲击视角》,《中国工业经济》第7期,第80～97页。 [12]朱民和彭道菊,2022,《创新内含碳中和目标的结构性货币政策》,《金融研究》第6期,第1～15页。 [13]Abiry, R., M. Ferdinandusse, A. Ludwig and C. Nerlich, 2022, “Climate Change Mitigation: How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing？”, Zew-Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper, No.22-027. [14]Andrade, P., G. Gaballo, E. Mengus and B. Mojon, 2019, “Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(3), pp.1～29. [15]Bank of England , 2021, “Options for Greening the Bank of England's Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme”, Discussion Paper, May. [16]Bauer, M. D., C. E. Pflueger and A. Sunderam, 2022, “Perceptions about Monetary Policy”, NBER Working Paper, No. w30480. [17]Boneva, L., G. Ferrucci and F. P. Mongelli, 2021, “To Be or Not to Be ‘Green’: How Can Monetary Policy React to Climate Change？”, ECB Occasional Paper, 2021285. [18]Bordalo, P., N. Gennaioli, Y. Ma and A. Shleifer, 2020, “Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations”, American Economic Review,110 (9), pp.2748～2782. [19]Carattini, S., G. Heutel and G. Melkadze, 2023, “Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 51, pp.778～794. [20]Chen, C., D. Pan, Z. Huang and R. Bleischwitz, 2021, “Engaging Central Banks in Climate Change？ The Mix of Monetary and Climate Policy”, Energy Economics, 103, 105531. [21]ECB , 2021, “ECB Presents Action Plan to Include Climate Change Considerations in its Monetary Policy Strategy”, Press Release, 8 July. [22]Ferrari, A. and V. N. Landi, 2024, “Whatever it Takes to Save the Planet？ Central Banks and Unconventional Green Policy”, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28(2), pp.299～324. [23]Hillebrand, E. and M. Hillebrand, 2019, “Optimal Climate Policies in a Dynamic Multi-country Equilibrium Model”, Journal of Economic Theory, 179, pp.200～239. [24]Jordà, Ò. , 2005, “Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections”, American Economic Review, 95(1), pp.161～182. [25]Papoutsi, M., M. Piazzesi and M. Schneider, 2021, “How Unconventional is Green Monetary Policy”, 2nd Sustainable Finance Center Confeceme ,TSE,Toulouse. [26]Plagborg Møller, M. and C. K. Wolf, 2021 “Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses”, Econometrica, 89(2), pp.955～980. [27]Sen, S., and M. Von Schickfus, 2020, “Climate Policy, Stranded Assets, and Investors' Expectations”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 100, 102277. [28]Scotti, C., 2016, “Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-time Aggregation of Real-activity Macro-surprises”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, pp.1～19. [29]Wu, Y., K. Zhang, and J. Xie, 2020, “Bad Greenwashing, Good Greenwashing: Corporate Social Responsibility and Information Transparency”, Management Science, 66(7), pp.3095～3112.
