The Effects of Export Slowdown on Labor Markets and Household Behavior
PAN Yu, XU Yuan, XU Mingzhi, MA Hong
School of Economics, Xiamen University; Business School, Beijing Normal University; Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University; School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Summary:
The 2008 global financial crisis triggered a prolonged stagnation in international trade. Weak global demand caused a slowdown in China's exports. Over the past few years, the average export growth rate was only 5%, representing a sharp decline of 20% compared to the pre-crisis period of 2001-2008. China, with the world's largest working-age population, depends critically on exports for job creation. Weak external demand and export slowdown thus pose major economic and social challenges. This paper examines how export slowdown, driven by weak external demand, affects individuals and households. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) conducted by Peking University Institute of Social Studies Survey and trade data from the General Administration of Customs, we construct city-level export demand shocks to analyze the effects of export slowdown since 2012 on individuals' labor market performance, mental health, and households' economic decisions in China. We employ a shift-share instrumental variable to identify the causal effect. Specifically, to isolate the effects of export slowdown caused by weak external demand from those driven by other domestic factors, we first calculate the changes in exports of each six-digit HS product from the rest of the world (excluding China) to the rest of the world. These product-level demand shocks are then weighted by the initial export structure of each prefecture-level city, and used as an instrumental variable for city-level export shocks. The empirical results reveal that export slowdown significantly reduces individual wages, increases unemployment among low-skilled workers, induces more individuals to engage in flexible jobs or exit the labor market, and worsens mental health. Moreover, the adverse effects of export slowdown are more pronounced among women, workers in tradable sectors, low-skilled laborers, older individuals, and those with lower occupational social recognition scores.At the household level, export slowdown leads to a significant decline in total household income. Additionally, when facing a negative income shock, households are more likely to reduce financial investments, increase borrowing, and delay debt repayment to smooth expenditures, with no significant change in saving. Our findings offer valuable policy guidance for expanding high-standard opening-up and advancing high-quality economic development. Meanwhile, we also provide theoretical support and valuable insights for the government to address the increasingly prominent structural challenges in foreign trade. On one hand, it is essential to stabilize the foundation of foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. This includes improving export quality, optimizing export structures, and advancing trade digitization and green transformation to better align with new demands in global development. On the other hand Lastly, given that export slowdown may exacerbate household debt risks, it is advisable to establish a regular household financial monitoring system, and improve temporary social assistance programs. This paper makes several key contributions to the literature. Firstly, in terms of research focus, this paper shifts the focus from trade liberalization to the underexplored effects of export slowdown following the post-2008 decline in global demand. Secondly, in terms of data, most existing studies on trade impacts rely on industry,region, or firm level data. In contrast, this paper utilizes micro-level individual and household data across multiple dimensions, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the direct effects of negative export shocks and their heterogeneity across different demographic groups. Thirdly, in terms of policy relevance, our findings that export slowdown significantly worsens labor market outcomes and mental health offer actionable insights for policymakers in designing measures to mitigate the adverse effects of negative export shocks. Finally, in terms of methodology, the use of a Bartik instrumental variable regression and extensive robustness checks addresses endogeneity concerns and strengthens the validity of the results.
潘煜, 徐嫄, 徐铭梽, 马弘. 出口放缓对劳动力市场和家庭行为的影响[J]. 金融研究, 2025, 543(9): 58-76.
PAN Yu, XU Yuan, XU Mingzhi, MA Hong. The Effects of Export Slowdown on Labor Markets and Household Behavior. Journal of Financial Research, 2025, 543(9): 58-76.
[1]陈安平、刘彩霞和刘启超,2020,《经济增速放缓对个体收入和就业的影响研究》,《产经评论》第6期,第127～144页。 [2]陈道富,2015,《我国融资难融资贵的机制根源探究与应对》,《金融研究》第2期,第45～52页。 [3]陈彦斌、刘哲希和陈伟泽,2018,《经济增速放缓下的资产泡沫研究——基于含有高债务特征的动态一般均衡模型》,《经济研究》第10期,第16～21页。 [4]戴觅、张轶凡和黄炜,2019,《贸易自由化如何影响中国区域劳动力市场?》,《管理世界》第6期,第56～69页。 [5]方昕,2016,《警惕通缩风险,完善宏观调控》,《金融研究》第2期,第121～127页。 [6]葛阳琴、谢建国和李宏亮,2018,《全球贸易减速的影响因素研究——基于增加值贸易的视角》,《国际贸易问题》第2期,第56～69页。 [7]罗楚亮、滕阳川和李利英,2019,《行业结构、性别歧视与性别工资差距》,《管理世界》第8期,第58～68页。 [8]罗长远和刘子琦,2022,《经济增速放缓激发了企业家精神吗——基于2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据的研究》,《学术月刊》第9期,第46～59页。 [9]罗长远、刘子琦和宋弘,2023,《经济增速放缓对国民心理健康的影响——来自中国家户层面的证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期,第604～621页。 [10]刘铠豪、臧旭恒和王雪芳,2022,《外部关税减让与家庭消费——来自中国城镇住户调查的微观证据》,《南开经济研究》第5期,第38～62页。 [11]李实、宋锦和刘小川,2014,《中国城镇职工性别工资差距的演变》,《管理世界》第3期,第53～65+187页。 [12]李小帆和孟克,2024,《外需疲软、出口受阻与中国制造业比重下滑》,《财贸经济》第1期,第1～19页。 [13]毛日昇,2009,《出口、外商直接投资与中国制造业就业》,《经济研究》第11期,第105～117页。 [14]秦若冰和马弘,2023,《消费品关税减让的价格效应与福利分析——来自2017—2019年关税改革的经验证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期,第409～424页。 [15]王备和钱学锋,2020,《贸易自由化、生活成本与中国城市居民家庭消费福利》,《世界经济》第3期,第69～92页。 [16]王文举和贾辰歌,2024,《关税壁垒对中美贸易及我国就业的影响研究》,《数量经济研究》第15期,第1～23页。 [17]于洪霞和陈玉宇,2010,《外贸出口影响工资水平的机制探析》,《管理世界》第10期,第47～58页。 [18]张川川,2015a,《出口对就业、工资和收入不平等的影响——基于微观数据的证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期,第1611～1630页。 [19]张川川,2015b,《“中等教育陷阱”?——出口扩张、就业增长与个体教育决策》,《经济研究》第12期,第115～127+157页。 [20]赵春明、李震和李宏兵,2021,《中国出口增速放缓与区域劳动力市场就业调整》,《财经研究》第1期,第135～152页。 [21]Alfaro, L. and D. Chor, 2023, “Global Supply Chains: The Looming ‘Great Reallocation’”, National Bureau of Economic Research, No. W31661. [22]Amiti, M. and D. R. Davis, 2012, “Trade, Firms, and Wages: Theory and Evidence”, The Review of Economic Studies, 79(1), pp. 1～36. [23]Autor, D. H., D. Dorn and G. H. Hanson, 2013, “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States”, American Economic Review, 103(6), pp. 2121～2168. [24]Barrot, J. N., E. Loualiche, M. Plosser and J. Sauvagnat, 2022, “Import Competition and Household Debt”, The Journal of Finance, 77(6), pp. 3037～3091. [25]Bartik, T. J, 1991, “Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?”, WE Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [26]Benguria, F., J. Choi, D. L. Swenson and M. Xu, 2022, “Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war”, Journal of International Economics, 137, p. 103608. [27]Borusyak, K., P. Hull and X. Jaravel, 2022, “Quasi-experimental Shift-share Research Designs”, The Review of Economic Studies, 89 (1), pp. 181～213. [28]Brandt, L., J. Van Biesebroeck, L. Wang and Y. Zhang, 2017, “WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms”, American Economic Review, 107(9), pp. 2784～2820. [29]Campante, F. R., D. Chor and B. Li, 2023, “The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(5), pp. 1721～1771. [30]Chor, D. and B. Li, 2024, “Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China's economy”, Journal of International Economics, 150, p. 103926. [31]Colantone, I., R. Crinò and L. Ogliari, 2019, “Globalization and Mental Distress”, Journal of International Economics, 119, pp. 181～207. [32]Dai, M., W. Huang and Y. Zhang, 2021, “How do Households Adjust to Tariff Liberalization? Evidence from China's WTO Accession”, Journal of Development Economics, 150, p. 102628. [33]Dix-Carneiro, R. and B. K. Kovak, 2017, “Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics”, American Economic Review, 107(10), pp. 2908～2946. [34]Eppinger, P., G. J. Felbermayr, O. Krebs and B. Kukharskyy, 2021, “Decoupling global value chains”, CESifo Working Paper, No. 9079. [35]Erten, B. and J. Leight, 2021, “Exporting Out of Agriculture: The Impact of WTO Accession on Structural Transformation in China”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 103(2), pp. 364～380. [36]Feenstra, R. C. and C. Hong, 2010, “China's Exports and Employment”, in Feenstra R. C. and S. J. Wei, 2010, China's Growing Role in World Trade, Chicago: University Press, pp. 167～199. [37]Ferraro, J. K. and E. V. Leemput, 2019, “Long-Run Effects of Chinese GDP from U.S.-China Tariff Hikes”, FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington. [38]Han, J., R. Liu, B. U. Marchand and J. Zhang, 2016, “Market Structure, Imperfect Tariff Pass-through, and Household Welfare in Urban China”, Journal of International Economics, 100(5), pp. 220～232. [39]He, C., K. Mau and M. Xu, 2021, “Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War”, Labour Economics, 71, p. 102021. [40]Jiang, L., Y. Lu, H. Song and G. Zhang, “Responses of exporters to trade protectionism: Inference from the U.S.-China trade war”, Journal of International Economics, 140, pp. 1905～1913. [41]Kuhn, P. and K. Shen, 2013, “Gender Discrimination in Job Ads: Evidence from China”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1), pp. 287～336. [42]Li, B., 2018, “Export Expansion, Skill Acquisition and Industry Specialization: Evidence from China”, Journal of International Economics, 114, pp. 346～361. [43]Los, B., M. P. Timmer and G. J. de Vries, 2015, “How Important are Exports for Job Growth in China? A Demand Side Analysis”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(1), pp. 19～32. [44]Ma, H., Y. Pan and M. Xu, 2025, “The Criminogenic Consequence of Export Slowdown: Evidence from Millions of Court Judgment Documents in China”, The Economic Journal, ueaf024. [45]McCaig, B., 2011,“Exporting Out of Poverty: Provincial Poverty in Vietnam and US Market Access”, Journal of International Economics, 85(1), pp. 102～113. [46] Senik, C., 2008, “Is Man Doomed to Progress?”, Journal of Economic & Organization, 68(1), pp. 140～152. [47]Sheng, L., H. Song and X. Zheng, 2025, “How did Chinese exporters manage the trade war?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 153, p. 103300. [48]Topalova, P., 2010, “Factor Immobility and Regional Impacts of Rrade Liberalization: Evidence on Poverty from India”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(4), pp. 1～41. [49]Xu, W., X. Qin, X. Li, H. Chen, M. Frank, A. Rutherford, A. Reeson and I. Rahwan, 2021, “Developing China's Workforce Skill Taxonomy Reveals Extent of Labor Market Polarization”, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8(1), pp. 1～10.
