Assessment and Planning of Personal Retirement Financing Based on Life Cycle Theory
WANG Mengzhen, LI Wenjun
Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Institute of Quantitative & Technological Economics,CASS; School of Business,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Summary:
With the extension of individual life expectancy, the financing of retirement and medical funds becomes a popular need for individuals to address the longevity risk. This planning of personal retirement financing should fully reflect individual differences and subjective expectations. In addition to the allocation of wealth capital, it is also necessary to actively allocate various capitals including health capital and human capital. This paper systematically examines the financial situation of individuals in their old age from the perspective of retirement financing, based on the consumption-saving theory and the life-cycle model. It further subdivides stages of old age according to working and health status, and constructs a pension financing assessment model. By measuring the expected terminal assets, it integrates the funding needs and expenditure for elderly care and health, as well as the wealth creation from labor and health behaviors, into a unified analytical system. The calculation indicates that more than 60% of the elderly in China are at risk of depleting their assets. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the terminal assets of rural, low-educated, female, non-married, and disabled groups are lower. Finally, this paper uses the logical principle of information-prediction-behavior to calculate the specific effects of adjusting various financing planning behaviors according to expectations, and discusses the sufficiency of financing for the elderly from a more general level, proposing practical planning adjustment plans for the elderly and their families to effectively cope with the risk of longevity.
王梦真, 李文军. 基于生命周期理论的个人养老筹资评估与规划[J]. 金融研究, 2024, 529(7): 170-187.
WANG Mengzhen, LI Wenjun. Assessment and Planning of Personal Retirement Financing Based on Life Cycle Theory. Journal of Financial Research, 2024, 529(7): 170-187.
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