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金融研究  2024, Vol. 529 Issue (7): 188-206    
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
外部货币冲击与金融稳定——基于近代白银法案的经验研究
李嘉楠, 陈立, 周颖刚
厦门大学经济学院/王亚南经济研究院, 福建厦门 361000
External monetary shocks and financial stability: An empirical evidence from the Silver Act
LI Jianan, CHEN Li, ZHOU Yinggang
School of Economics/Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University
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摘要 由于信用本位体系下央行货币政策高度内生,很难厘清外部货币冲击对金融稳定的因果效应。近代中国中央银行的缺位,为我们识别外部货币冲击对金融稳定的影响提供了独特的历史环境。基于手动收集的近代中国价格、银行、海关和企业数据,本文利用1934年美国《白银法案》对中国产生的银根紧缩外生冲击,构建双重差分模型,识别其对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,白银外流造成了中国通货紧缩与流动性危机,为弗里德曼的“白银外流导致通缩”观点和萨金特的“国际套利导致价格下降”观点的争论提供了经验证据;白银外流造成金融信贷投放规模下降,并导致新增企业数量减少和房地产建筑面积萎缩。最后,我们的结果表明“自由银行”体系在外部货币冲击下难以及时释放流动性,很难帮助中小银行摆脱流动性困境。本文梳理的历史经验证据表明,保持国家独立自主的货币政策,是发展中国家在外部货币冲击下保持金融稳定的重要基础。
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李嘉楠
陈立
周颖刚
关键词:  外部货币冲击  金融稳定  白银法案    
Summary:  At present, the monetary policy cycle of major developed countries in Europe and the United States is frequently changed, which constitutes an external currency shock on the emerging economies with limited room for policy maneuver. The negative impact of external monetary shocks on domestic financial stability has attracted increasing attention, although the academic community has theoretically discussed the spillover effect of central countries' monetary policies on other economies and the significance of developing countries' proactive policies to offset external shocks and maintain financial stability. However, due to the endogeneity of money supply under the credit standard, it is difficult to accurately answer this question from the angle of causal identification. Nevertheless, China in the 1930s provided us with a rare opportunity to observe and answer this question at the institutional level. By collecting the information on customs imports, city prices, bank finance and so on in modern China, this paper studies the causal effect of external monetary shock on financial stability by using the impact of the US Silver Act of 1934, and analyzes the role of China's free banking system in coping with the crisis.
In the early 1930s, China was the only major country in the world that used the silver standard system, and its silver stock and total money supply were controlled by the balance of payments and the international silver price. At the same time, China had no substantive central bank, forming a banking system that resembled a "free banking system." As the previous silver price downturn hurt the interests of the seven silver producing states in the United States, under the promotion of these silver interest groups, the Roosevelt government promulgated the Silver Act in June 1934, authorizing the Treasury Department to buy silver from the international market at a high price, resulting in an increase of 70 percent in the international silver price in less than a year. The Silver Act had a significant impact on China under the silver standard, including a large outflow of silver and deflation. However, scholars, including Milton Friedman and Thomas Sargent, held opposing views on the actual impact of the Silver Act and the role of the free banking system. Contrary to the monetarist view, economists such as Sargent argued that China's deflation at the time was only the result of international arbitrage, and China's real economy was not greatly affected.
In order to re-examine the impact of the Silver Act, an exogenous monetary tightening shock, on China's financial economy in modern times from a micro perspective, we manually collected and sorted out the available data of China's urban prices, customs imports, bank finance, real economy, etc. These data come from the statistics of the Chinese old customs, the National Bank Yearbook compiled by the Bank of China, the industrial survey of the Nanking National Government and other authoritative archival materials at that time. We construct an index to measure the shock intensity of the Silver Act based on China's silver standard monetary system and commercial banks' currency issuance system .Through the exogenous shock of the Silver Act and the analysis of the price indices of major Chinese cities, we find that, in addition to controlling the impact of international price arbitrage, the monetary tightening has led to a significant decline in prices and deflation, as well as a shortage of liquidity in the interbank market. Concerned about tight market liquidity and rising risks, banks have reduced the size of their loans and reduced their support for the real economy. This means that the monetary tightening shock has a negative impact on the stability of the financial system and macro liquidity.
In addition to the direct impact on the financial system, the Silver Act also had a significant negative impact on the real economy. Under the tightening shock, the number of new enterprises and the area of real estate construction have declined significantly, suggesting that external monetary shocks not only affect the price level, but also have significant actual effects. At the same time, the analysis of the free banking system shows that the free banking system under the absence of the central bank cannot resolve the negative impact of external currency shocks in time. This also means that it is important to ensure the flexibility of the monetary policy of the central bank to cope with the impact of external monetary shocks.
Keywords:  External currency shocks    Financial stability    Silver Act
JEL分类号:  G20   G21   N20  
基金资助: *本文感谢国家自然科学基金面上项目(721731102)、国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA060)、国家自然科学基金科学中心项目(71988101)资助。感谢匿名审稿人的宝贵意见以及计量经济学教育部重点实验室(厦门大学)洪国斌的技术支持,文责自负。
通讯作者:  陈 立,博士研究生,厦门大学经济学院,Email:lc11235@126.com.   
作者简介:  李嘉楠,经济学博士,副教授,厦门大学经济学院/王亚南经济研究院,E-mail: jianan.li@xmu.edu.cn.周颖刚,经济学博士,教授,厦门大学经济学院/王亚南经济研究院,E-mail: ygzhou@xmu.edu.cn.
引用本文:    
李嘉楠, 陈立, 周颖刚. 外部货币冲击与金融稳定——基于近代白银法案的经验研究[J]. 金融研究, 2024, 529(7): 188-206.
LI Jianan, CHEN Li, ZHOU Yinggang. External monetary shocks and financial stability: An empirical evidence from the Silver Act. Journal of Financial Research, 2024, 529(7): 188-206.
链接本文:  
http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/  或          http://www.jryj.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V529/I7/188
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