Summary:
In the face of various uncertainty shocks occurring frequently worldwide, enhancing macroeconomic resilience is crucial to promoting sustainable economic development and maintaining economic security. Improving a country's economic resilience requires a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the main influencing factors of macroeconomic resilience and their mechanisms. Previous studies have examined the impact of real economic factors on macroeconomic resilience, such as a country's innovation capability, economic openness, industrial structure, market size and human capital. Previous researches have obtained some considerably valuable conclusions. However, modern macroeconomics is based on a highly developed modern financial system. It is worth noting the fact that countries or economies with different financial development and financial systems show significant differences in their macroeconomic resilience in the face of the same external uncertainty shocks (such as an oil shock or a global financial crisis). This means that in addition to being influenced by real economic factors such as industrial structure and innovation capability, a country's macroeconomic resilience may also be related to its financial structure. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience. Based on the theoretical analysis of the risk absorption effect and innovation support effect of financial structure, this paper proposes that financial structure may have a non-linear effect on macroeconomic resilience. In terms of empirical strategies, this paper first uses the data of 68 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019 to empirically test the impact of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience by constructing a panel threshold model. Secondly, on the basis of defining different types of real economy shock and financial crises, we examine the heterogeneity impact of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience under different types of shock. Finally, this paper examines the possible mechanisms by which financial structure affects macroeconomic resilience. The results show that the impact of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience presents a positive nonlinear threshold effect, indicating that a market-oriented financial structure is beneficial for improving macroeconomic resilience. However, when the ratio of direct and indirect financing in the financial structure exceeds the threshold value of 1.48, the positive effect of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience decreases. After a series of robustness tests such as adjusting the indicator system and weights of economic resilience measurement, handling endogeneity and clustering, the research conclusions are all robust. Under the financial crisis and technological shocks from the supply side, an increase in the proportion of direct financing in the financial structure is conducive to enhancing economies' macroeconomic resilience, while an increase in the proportion of indirect financing in the financial structure is beneficial for enhancing the resilience of the economy to respond to consumption shocks from the demand side and the combination of consumption shocks and technological shocks. Changes in the financial structure mainly affect the resilience of the macro economy to respond to internal and external uncertainty shocks through two channels: innovation support effect and risk absorption effect. In order to prevent and resolve various types of uncertainty shock that frequently occur globally and enhance macroeconomic resilience, this research first proposes to balance and coordinate the proportion of direct and indirect financing, promote financial sector to serve to enhance macroeconomic resilience, and help economies resist shocks and recover during crises. It is necessary to recognize the positive effect of increasing the proportion of direct financing in the financial structure on the macro-economic resilience, but also pay attention to the weakening effect of improving the macro-economic resilience after the proportion of financial markets in the financial structure exceeds the critical value. Second, given the heterogeneity impact of financial structure on economic resilience under different types of shock and the combination of shocks, economic regulators need to carefully assess the internal and external shocks faced by the country's economic development, and implement corresponding financial support policies and safeguard measures for key types of shock. Finally, we should give full play to the risk absorption and innovation support functions of the financial structure to enhance macroeconomic resilience. In a broader sense, in order to effectively support the real economy and enhance economic resilience, attention should be paid to the role of financial factors in reducing economic and financial risks, supporting innovation, and accumulating high-quality human capital. The main contributions are as follows. First, it expands the research on the influencing factors of economic resilience. Based on cross-country empirical evidence, this paper focuses on the impact of financial structure on economic resilience, so as to provide a theoretical explanation for the differences in economic resilience of different countries and regions in the face of external shocks. Second, it enriches the research on financial structure and its function. This paper focuses on macroeconomic resilience, and analyzes the risk absorption and innovation support effects of financial markets and financial intermediaries when the macro economy faces adverse shocks. At the same time, this paper pays attention to the dynamic changes of the risk absorption and innovation support effects of financial markets and financial intermediaries as the financial structure changes. Third, it distinguishes the heterogeneity impact of financial structure on macroeconomic resilience under different single shocks (including real economy shocks and financial crisis) and multiple shocks. This has important practical reference value for each economy to choose different policies when facing different types of shock.
潘敏, 秦力宸. 金融结构对宏观经济韧性的影响——来自跨国比较的经验证据[J]. 金融研究, 2023, 521(11): 39-58.
PAN Min, QIN Lichen. The Impact of Financial Structure on Macroeconomic Resilience: Evidence from Transnational Comparison. Journal of Financial Research, 2023, 521(11): 39-58.
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