Summary:
Terminal infrastructure, exemplified by courier service points, constitutes a critical factor for developing countries in advancing major construction projects, establishing social credit systems, and sustaining national economic growth (Devoto et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2022; Cao et al., 2023). Existing research has identified large-scale infrastructure such as airports, railways, and highways as pivotal for building integrated national markets (Donaldson, 2018; Zhang et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2019). However, little literature has examined the role of terminal infrastructure in fostering such unified markets. In reality, as a crucial carrier of terminal infrastructure, express delivery logistics has become a vital channel for transporting agricultural products to urban markets and delivering consumer goods to rural areas. Notably, the formation of rural logistics networks benefits villages previously excluded by large-scale infrastructure, not only bridging the “last-mile” gap for consumption in remote and underdeveloped villages but also serving as the “first-mile” channel for agricultural products entering urban markets. This paper makes two primary contributions. Firstly, while existing studies analyze the economic effects of large-scale hub-type infrastructure like roads, railways, ports, and bridges (Aschauer, 1989; Demurger, 2001; Brueckner, 2003; Zhang X., 2012; Giroud and Mueller, 2015; Zhang et al., 2018), research on terminal infrastructure remains inadequate. This study helps fill this gap by providing causal evidence demonstrating that terminal infrastructure construction substantially impacts rural growth. Secondly, prior research using field experiments shows E-commerce platforms alleviate rural logistics barriers and reduce living costs (Couture et al., 2021). However, limited sample sizes and short observation periods raise concerns about external validity and generalizability (Deaton, 2010; Li et al., 2020). Leveraging comprehensive courier service points data matched with China's Rural Fixed Observation Point Survey, we construct a high-quality household-level panel dataset characterized by extensive geographical coverage and a large sample size. This enables richer heterogeneity analysis and explores the micro-mechanisms through which terminal infrastructure promotes growth over extended periods. Using this combined dataset, we employ a staggered Difference-in-differences (DID) approach to assess terminal infrastructure's impact on rural growth. Results indicate that courier service significantly boosts the income growth of rural residents, particularly improving wealth in economically disadvantaged villages, thereby advancing inclusive growth in China. In terms of mechanisms, courier service access increases farmers' online consumption participation, reducing household expenditure and accelerating wealth accumulation. Convenient logistics expands consumer markets, diversifies agricultural sales channels for rural enterprises, and creates employment and income opportunities. We conduct rigorous checks and address endogeneity. To mitigate biases in staggered DID estimation, we apply methods by Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) and Sun & Abraham (2021). To exclude confounding factors such as extended pre-treatment windows, E-commerce Demonstration County initiatives, digital finance development, service area changes, high-speed rail openings, agricultural surveys, and village size disparities, we employ sample trimming, additional controls, and placebo tests. The results support the above conclusions. This paper has significant policy implications. Terminal logistics is essential for urban-rural goods flow. It is therefore important to further simplify the courier service points registration procedures and promote online filing, which will accelerate integrated national market development. Terminal infrastructure deployment requires government-market coordination. Enhancing joint distribution systems by integrating postal services, express delivery, transportation, supply chains, and commercial resources in rural areas—through models like postal-express and express-express collaboration—is critical. Alongside terminal infrastructure, expanding network infrastructure and educational resources is vital. Improving rural human capital and internet access ensures farmers efficiently benefit from courier services.
邹伟, 鲁元平. 末端基础设施建设与农村包容性增长——兼论快递物流在全国统一大市场建设中的作用[J]. 金融研究, 2025, 541(7): 113-130.
ZOU Wei, LU Yuanping. Terminal Infrastructure Construction and Inclusive Growth in Rural: Based on the Role of Courier Service in the National Unified Market. Journal of Financial Research, 2025, 541(7): 113-130.
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