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25 August 2016, Volume 434 Issue 8
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Bilateral RMB De Facto Exchange Rate Regime and China's Export Growth
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SHI Bingzhan, ZHANG Yarui
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 1-7.
Abstract
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903
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372
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Contrasting to exchange rate level or volatility, this paper focus on the effect of exchange rate regime on China's export growth. We found that China and 34% trade partners are in fact in fixed exchange rate regime; the trade volume under fixed exchange rate regime is about 1.30~1.92 times of that under floating exchange rate regime; if China and all its trade partners were in floating exchange rate regime, China's export volume would decrease 6.42~13.29%; furthermore, the promoting effect is larger for the product with higher dependence on external financing. Therefore, fixed exchange rate regime not only increases export volume but also upgrades export structure.
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Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy Based on Adaptive Expectations
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MA Li, HE Mengze, LIU Yi
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 19-33.
Abstract
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1033
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548
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We build a multi-variable autonomy system, in which the deposit rate is the proxy variable of monetary policy, and analyze the transmission path of reserve requirement monetary policy by solving the higher-order non-homogeneous linear constant-coefficient differential equation, proving that monetary policy can guide the market and macro-economic development by adjusting the adaptive expectations of the public. The result shows that appropriate adjustment approach can lower the cost while achieving monetary policy goals effectively, and create a more flexible operating space for future macroeconomic regulatory.
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Income Distribution Unfairness, Social Insurance and Happiness of the Chinese
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YANG Yinan, ZHANG Shangfeng
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 34-50.
Abstract
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1093
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474
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Using pooled cross-sectional data from China General Society Survey, the empirical results demonstrate that income distribution unfairness will significantly reduce the happiness of respondents by 8.4%. Without medical insurance or old age insurance would reduce the happiness by 4.84% and 4.64% respectively. Social insurance is an important factor contributing to China's income distribution unfair. The respondents' happiness will grow 5.32% while their social economic status rise up one unit. The absolute income still has a significant effect and a conversed U-style relationship with happiness. Compared by their coefficients and significances, the income distribution unfair has the largest effect on happiness, the second is relative income, and the last is absolute income. These results indicate that the Chinese worries much less about income, while more about income distribution inequality and most against income distribution unfairness.
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Housing Price Fluctuation and Social Welfare:A Research Based on Endogenous Firm Entry
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LEI Wenni, GONG Liutang
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 51-67.
Abstract
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1039
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401
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This paper builds a two-sector DSGE model with firm entry, studying the impact of housing price fluctuation on the resource allocation and social welfare. The simulation results show that the increase of housing price induced by exogenous shocks will raise the threshold of firm entry and reduce the number of new-entry firms, which will have a negative effect on the varieties of goods and output, decreasing the social welfare. The degree of social welfare change is up to the weight of house sector and the elasticity of entry cost to housing price. It's worthy attention that when the elasticity of entry cost to housing price is high enough, a beneficial technology shock will even increase the monopolies and reduce the social welfare. In the end, the empirical analysis, using the panel data of 35 major cities in China from 1998 to 2010, verifies the existence of the mechanism that housing price impacts the firm entry decision in the channel of entry cost.
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Climate Shocks, Informal Finance and Peasant Uprisings: Risk Sharing Effects of Pawnshops
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HU Jinyan, ZHANG Bo, FAN Chenchen
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 68-84.
Abstract
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1060
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999
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The role of informal financial market (e.g. pawnshops) played in mitigating the survival risk induced by climate shocks remains unclear and is short of empirical evidence in the existing literature. Using a provincial panel dataset for China during 1470-1900, this paper examines how the pawnshops affect peasant uprisings which were caused by droughts and floods. The study shows that the development of pawnshops contributes to decrease the frequency of peasant uprisings that were triggered by droughts. This is because pawnshops, which provide small mortgage loans, are able to cope with negative economic shocks through financing. Simultaneously the expansion of service (e.g. “Gudian”, deposit) improves its social insurance functions and inhibits the rise of grain price, which can mitigate the survival risk caused by nature disasters. This paper not only validates the risk sharing effects of financial market from a historical perspective, but also provides a theoretical foundation for the standardization of contemporary informal finance.
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Who Can Dominant Chinese Catastrophe Insurance Construction and Development: Government or Market? Based on Dynamic Path Dependence Evolutionary Analysis
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ZHUO Zhi, DUAN Sheng
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 85-94.
Abstract
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1047
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542
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Based on the assumption, this paper build a dynamic game model to analyze the evolution and development of catastrophe insurance system by information economics evolutionary game path method.The results showed that:in the initial stage, institutional framework and operating rules under the government dominate nation can play a better overall efficiency and can achieve stable equilibrium. But if the government lasting dominated catastrophe insurance system, it will seriously distort the market mechanism and institutional system operating efficiency will also be significantly reduced. Thus suggests, government intervene catastrophe insurance system should be moderate; the main duty for government is cultivate the insurance market players and improve the effectiveness for government incentives.
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The Connectedness of Chinese Listed Financial Institutions:A Study Based on Network Analysis
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LI Zheng, LIANG Qi, TU Xiaofeng
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 95-110.
Abstract
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1490
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1048
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Based on information spillover perspective, this paper builds the interconnected network of Chinese listed financial institutions in 2008-2015, and uses the network analysis to study the overall connectedness of financial network and the characteristics of connectedness within and between sectors. We also analyze the influential factors of connectedness using financial institutions' micro-level data. The results show that the interconnected network possesses the complex network properties of both small-world phenomenon and scale-free characteristics. The overall level of connectedness has increased since 2012, and its degree in 2014 has outweighed that of the financial crisis period in 2008, implying the systemic risk exposure has accumulated in recent years. We also find that the shadow business of financial institutions is one of the main factors resulting in the high-level connectedness.
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The Optimal Financing Mode of ODI Firms in China: From the Perspectiveof Asymmetric Information
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GUO Guixia, ZHAO Yue, WU Ho-Mou
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 111-126.
Abstract
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960
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640
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Chinese ODI firms have a prominent tendency for debt financing, overreliance on which has accumulated a dangerously high level of credit risk. In this paper, based on a theoretical model of information economics, we investigate the micro-mechanism of firms’ overreliance on debt when firms have private information about their project riskiness, by analyzing the equilibrium debt level that maximizes firms’ expected profit and the socially equilibrium debt level that can maximize social welfare. It is found that the problem of debt overreliance is more severe if the financed projects are riskier, or if host country risk is higher, or if firms are imposed on a higher tax rate. Our findings are helpful to put forward useful suggestions from this respect for our financial supporting policy system to promote Chinese “Belt and Road” firms to better conduct international investments.
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How Does the Local Government Investment Affect the Financing Cost of Listed Firms?
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CHEN Guojin, YIN Lujin, ZHAO Xiangqin
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 127-142.
Abstract
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1054
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557
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Based on the production based asset pricing model (PCAPM), we propose a theoretical model to investigate how the government investment will affect the financing costs of listed firms, we show that the government investment will affect the output capital ratio, and then affect the financing costs of firms. With the 1999-2013 provincial panel data, we find empirically that the local government investment has reduced the output capital ratio, and then reduced the financing costs.
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Do Bond Covenants Affect Bond Price? An Empirical Study Based on Corporate Bond Market of China
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SHI Yongdong, TIAN Yuanbo
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 143-158.
Abstract
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1253
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514
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Focusing on the essential attribute that bond covenants could protect the creditors' rights, we collected data by hand and applied methods of portfolios-sort and Fama-Macbeth to analyze channels and degrees of the impacts that bond covenants imposed on corporate bond pricing by decomposing the total spread of corporate bond into credit spread and non-credit spread. The conclusions demonstrated that the bond covenants could effectively reduce the credit spread and non-credit spread of corporate bond price due to protecting the interests of creditors from losses in the future and reducing the creditors risk., bond covenants have larger impact on total spread by superposition of credit spread effect and non-credit spread effect, which ultimately makes the bond covenants could also significantly lower the total spread of corporate bond yield to maturity.
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Anti-corruption and Chinese Corporate Governance: A Quasi-Natural Experiment
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WANG Maobin, KONG Dongmin
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 159-174.
Abstract
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2411
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1174
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Using China's 18th Party Congress as an exogenous policy impact event, we study the effects of anti-corruption on firm behaviors. We find that after China's 18th Party Congress, compared with listed firms in China's cities with lower corruption incidence, those firms in cities with higher corruption incidence have a significantly increased executive pay-performance and meanwhile the value of their cash holdings increases significantly. We also find that listed firms in China's cities with higher corruption incidence see their financial statement regularities make better and decrease earnings management after China's 18th Party Congress. The further analysis shows that accounting quality improvement effects of the anti-corruption movement mainly occur in non-state firms, but improvement in executive pay-performance sensitivity mainly comes from state owned firms. Our study provides evidence for the negative effect of corruption on corporate governance, executive incentive and shareholder value.
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Short Selling and Earnings Quality:Evidence from Corporate Financial Restatement
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ZHANG Xuan, ZHOU Peng, LI Chuntao
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 175-190.
Abstract
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992
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(1374KB) (
561
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Using a firm-level dataset from 2006 to 2014 in China, this research examines the impact of short selling on the behavior of corporate financial restatement. After controlling for possible endogeneity issues with a placebo test and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we document a negative, causal effect from short selling to the probability of corporate financial restatement. We further find that the effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker corporate governance and for firms from regions with less developed financial market. A robust check further confirms the previous findings, where we use both accruals and whether the firm has reported a small positive profit as additional measures for earnings quality. Moreover, we find a more efficient incentive mechanism and more analyst coverage are among possible underlying channels through which short selling affects the behaviors of managers as wellas wrporate's financial restatement. This research calls for a relaxation to short selling to foster a stable equity market in China.
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Patent Litigation and Innovation
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PAN Yue, PAN Jianping, DAI Yiyi
Journal of Financial Research. 2016,
434
(8): 191-206.
Abstract
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1188
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834
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Using a sample of non-financial public firms in China, we investigate the impact of patent litigation on plaintiff firms' and defendant firms' innovation. Specifically, we want to reveal how prosecutions, judgments and trial lengths of patent litigation influence innovative activities. The results are:(1) The charge of patent litigation will enhance innovation for both sides of lawsuits. Furthermore, when dividing plaintiff firms into industry leaders and industry followers, we find patent litigation will spur industry leaders' innovation while impede industry followers' innovate activities. (2) Industry leaders do not change their R&D investments regardless of winning or losing. However, industry followers and defendant firms will significantly increase or decrease R&D investments according to the judgments of lawsuits. (3) Trial lengths do not affect defendant firms' innovation, but they will stifle plaintiff firms' innovative activities. This negative effect is particularly significant for industry followers. Our research not only reveals how and in which mechanism patent litigation affects firms' innovation, but also provides references when firms consider choosing favorable paths to solve patent disputes.
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