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| The Influence Mechanism of Money and Credit Structure on Macro-economy in China: A New Perspective Re-explaining “Chinese Puzzle of Missing Money” |
| LI Bing, YUAN Wei
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School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology;
School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University |
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Abstract This paper empirically analyzes the influence mechanism of money and credit structure on macro-economy in China during 1996M1~2013M5 employing co-integration models with mechanism of changes. The results show: money and credit structures start to influence output and inflation fundamentally at a particular point; the influence mechanism of money and credit structures on real output are weak positive and weak negative respectively, and on inflation are both positive; the influence degree of money and credit structures on inflation is higher than money and credit aggregates. Based on above results, the paper comparatively analyzes the relationship between money structure, credit structure and “money lost”. We found that money and credit structures have strong explanatory power on “Chinese Puzzle of Missing Money”. Therefore, Chinese central bank should attach more importance on money and credit structures in the process of macro-control, and the volatility of money and credit structures should play an important role in improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and setting down monetary policy.
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Received: 12 April 2015
Published: 19 April 2018
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