This paper calculates export effective exchange rate, import effective exchange rate and examines the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on enterprises investment through export and import channel. The paper finds that RMB appreciation has negative impact on enterprise investment through export channel and the higher export dependence the enterprise has, RMB appreciation has greater negative impact on its investment. The paper also finds that RMB appreciation has positive impact on corporate investment through import channel and the higher import dependence the enterprise has, RMB appreciation has greater positive impact on its investment. The paper also finds that RMB appreciation has greater impact on enterprise investment which facing higher import competition and having a higher proportion of domestic sales. RMB appreciation also has greater impact on enterprise investment which having higher markup.

Using statistical approach and TVP-VAR model, this paper analyzes the PBC’s implementation of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools and their macroeconomic effects of China nearly 30 years. The results indicate that: (1) The PBC holds a prudent attitude by using quantitative tools, which is operated with high-frequency and high-strength when encountering strong shocks. The mode of quantitative instruments has a tendency that the control rhythm is quickened and the each control intensity is reduced. The implementation rhythm of price-based tools is comparatively balanced. (2) It is more important for China’s central bank to deal with the recession in stagflation economy, where the expansionary price-based policy is often used for its relatively moderate feature. (3) From the time-varying and the evolutionary perspectives, the macroeconomic effects of quantitative monetary policy on the output are improved, and the effects on the inflation maintain stable. (4) As for price-based policy, its advantage of efforts is obvious on the output in the recovery period, the advantage of time lags on output lie in down economy, while the effects on inflation are making great improvement.

This paper empirically analyzes the influence mechanism of money and credit structure on macro-economy in China during 1996M1~2013M5 employing co-integration models with mechanism of changes. The results show: money and credit structures start to influence output and inflation fundamentally at a particular point; the influence mechanism of money and credit structures on real output are weak positive and weak negative respectively, and on inflation are both positive; the influence degree of money and credit structures on inflation is higher than money and credit aggregates. Based on above results, the paper comparatively analyzes the relationship between money structure, credit structure and “money lost”. We found that money and credit structures have strong explanatory power on “Chinese Puzzle of Missing Money”. Therefore, Chinese central bank should attach more importance on money and credit structures in the process of macro-control, and the volatility of money and credit structures should play an important role in improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and setting down monetary policy.

The paper examines the effect of planned fertility rate on population and economic growth in an endogenous growth model in which agents face the quantity-quality trade-off when choosing fertility rate. If the output share of the labor-intensive industry is large, increasing rural planned fertility rate may make skill more suitable for the capital deepening, and thus promotes growth. If the productivity differential between the capital-intensive and the labor-intensive industry is low, increasing urban planned fertility rate may promote capital deepening and economic growth. The simulation results show that China’s planned fertility rate most likely depresses economic growth in the long run, although it may induce higher share of skilled labor in the labor force and higher urbanization rate.

From a structural perspective, this paper firstly shows that demographic trends has long-term impact on house prices by employing panel cointegration test. Then by applying panel error correction model, we examine the regional differences in the impact of demographic structure on the fluctuation of house prices, and explore the causes and raise policy suggestions Our empirical research shows that elderly population has contributed to the rise in house prices, but whether this trend will continue depends on how well the young people could afford to buy houses in the future. In all regions, the rise in house prices could not be well explained by demographic variables, which is a potential indication of property bubble. Hence, it is necessary for policy makers to work out appropriate precautionary measures to dealt with potential problems in house market.

This paper studies the stimulating effect of personal income tax reform in 2011 on household consumption. Based on the dataset of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find significant discrepancies of stimulating effect between tax on wage and tax on self-employed operating income. Specifically, for tax on wage every 100 Yuan tax cut boosts 138 Yuan of household consumption on average, but for tax on self-employed operating income the stimulating effect is both small and insignificant. Since spending patterns, financial constraints, precautionary savings and myopia exist, the effect of stimulation on different types of household indicates apparent heterogeneity. Our results show that heavy tax burden directly suppresses household consumption, and reducing personal income tax and increasing the share of household income is an efficacious method to stimulate consumption.

This paper constructs a two-region New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages to study the optimal fiscal transfer rule in regions of a country. This paper finds that the optimal transfer rule should eliminate the output gap difference of regions. Welfare analysis shows that fiscal transfer improves the welfare of country, and welfare gain increases with regional home bias increasing. The optimal rule is better than that targeting difference in consumption gap, price inflation, wage inflation, and government spending. This paper also compares the welfares of debt aid and fiscal transfer. When the aid receiver repays partial debt and interest, the effect of debt aid is same as that of fiscal transfer; when the interest rate of debt is higher than risk-free interest rate, the welfare of debt aid is less than that of fiscal transfer.

The difficulty and high-cost financing of the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is a universal problem and has unique characteristics in China. The financing problem of SMEs is inherent and is intensified under the condition of asymmetric information. Both developed and developing countries have raised its importance to a strategic height in solving this problem, and have constructed specific policy systems to support the development of SMEs, so as to fill the gap of market mechanics. We should learn the mature experiences from foreign countries but at the same time consider the unique approaches in financial reform, the development plan of financial market, and the overall characteristics of real economy in our country, to develop a balanced short-term, medium and long-term development strategy, and carry out a comprehensive reform to improve the financing environment of SMEs from different aspects such as law, industry, finance and banking.

Based on the bank-dominated financial institutional environment in China, this paper uses the quarterly data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange to investigate how inflation expectations affect corporate bank debt financing. The results are: First, inflation expectations decrease actual interest rate, therefore, expected inflation is positively related with the level of corporate bank debt, implying that inflation expectations are important determinants of capital structure. Second, when expected inflation is high, Credit reluctance and bank discrimination are more severe among commercial banks. As a result, SOEs can borrow money more easily from banks. Thus, in SOEs, the positive relationship between expected inflation and bank debt level is more significant. Third, inflation expectations also affect firms’ deviation from optimal bank debt structure. Specifically, conservative firms optimize debt structure while aggressive firms deviate more from optimal debt structure. In further analysis, we find that the expected inflation is also positively related with the change of bank debt; if the company borrow money more easily from banks, inflation expectation has greater effect on these firms’ bank debt financing. This study enriches the literature of capital structure determinants and macro policy and micro activities, investigates the macro determinants of capital structure, and helps the government and firms cope with inflation better.

This paper analyzes the influence of IPO overfunding on company’s cash dividend policy. We find that the more excessive funds the companies use to provide liquidity, the higher cash dividend payout ratio they have. This evidence indicates that excessive funds play as a capital pool. In order to meet cash demand of large shareholders, this positive relation between strength of excessive funds to improve liquidity and payment ratio is stronger when large shareholders have more shares. Further studies investigate that the stock market reaction to cash dividend is smaller if companies provide more liquidity with excessive funds after IPO. And the negative relation is lower in firms with higher majority owners’ shareholding, indicating market’s concerns about expropriation from large shareholders. These results deepen our understanding of efficiency of IPO overfunding and then have an enlightening role on the policy makers and investors.

This paper selects the data of Chinese manufacturing industry list companies from 2004 to 2012, to study the relationship of venture capitals (VCs) and firms’ production efficiency. We find that VCs have no significant effect on firms’ TFP. That result caused by low reputation VCs, which decrease firms’ efficiency significantly, while high reputation VCs promote firms’ production efficiency. With the switching regressions, we find that the effect on firms’production efficiency of high reputation VCs outperformed low reputation VCs by 1.24%-1.65%. This paper provides a reference for companies to choose VC institutions; meanwhile, it also provides a new view on added value service of VCs. Thus, hunger VCs need to choose the “good food”, while the new companies also need to choose high qualities VCs. Moreover, we impose some useful suggestions on caring the system risk, regulating the behavior, completing the government positioning and breaking the anti-corruption area of VC industry.

The paper investigates the systematic differences between female analysts and male analysts when they producing firm-specific information, and gets three interesting findings. Firstly, a negative relationship is between female analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity. Secondly, the proportion of graduating from prestigious universities abroad in female analysts sample is higher than male analysts sample; female analysts put more effort than male in work; and both of the overseas background and the effort of female analysts have a negative relationship with stock return synchronicity. Thirdly, female analysts’ coverage can intensify the negative relationship between conservative forecasts and stock return synchronicity. The results above indicate that female analysts can produce more firm-specific information than male; there are three important factors (individual ability, effort level and personality characteristics) which leading them to do that. This paper has important implications for understanding the role of female analysts in the development of capital market such as China.

In the extant literature there is no unanimous conclusion on whether the variation of R² is due to the difference in firm-specific information or that in the irrational frenzy. One possible reason is that neither the amount of firm-specific information nor the degree of frenzy can be measured directly. Due to the dramatic development of information technology, weibo has been widely used by both public and companies. With the advent of the new technology, the amount of information disclosed by companies proliferates; the types of information released through it differ greatly from the conventional ones; even the way in which information is disseminated changes drastically. The popularity of weibo provides an excellent setting to distinguish between the above two explanations for R². We find that: (1) R² decreases after a company initiates its weibo, and (2) the average forecasting error of analysts decreases afterwards. The above results indicate that companies disclose firm-specific information through weibo, which has significant impacts on R²; (3) individual investors cannot fully understand the information disclosed through weibo. The fact that weibo information can be incorporated into stock price timely reflects the "information intermediary" role of financial analysts.