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| Regional Differences of Demographic Trends and House Price: Empirical Study Based on Panel Cointegration Model |
| ZOU Jin, YU Taohua, WANG Dabo
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School of Economics, Sichuan University;
Financial Stability Bureau, People’s Bank of China;
Chengdu Branch, People’s Bank of China |
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Abstract From a structural perspective, this paper firstly shows that demographic trends has long-term impact on house prices by employing panel cointegration test. Then by applying panel error correction model, we examine the regional differences in the impact of demographic structure on the fluctuation of house prices, and explore the causes and raise policy suggestions Our empirical research shows that elderly population has contributed to the rise in house prices, but whether this trend will continue depends on how well the young people could afford to buy houses in the future. In all regions, the rise in house prices could not be well explained by demographic variables, which is a potential indication of property bubble. Hence, it is necessary for policy makers to work out appropriate precautionary measures to dealt with potential problems in house market.
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Received: 02 March 2015
Published: 19 April 2018
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