|
|
|
| Research on Monetary Policy Implementation Rules and Effects of China’s Central Bank: Based on Dynamic Analysis of Time-varying Perspective |
| HUANG Xian, WANG Xudong
|
| School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University;Postal Savings Bank of China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Using statistical approach and TVP-VAR model, this paper analyzes the PBC’s implementation of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools and their macroeconomic effects of China nearly 30 years. The results indicate that: (1) The PBC holds a prudent attitude by using quantitative tools, which is operated with high-frequency and high-strength when encountering strong shocks. The mode of quantitative instruments has a tendency that the control rhythm is quickened and the each control intensity is reduced. The implementation rhythm of price-based tools is comparatively balanced. (2) It is more important for China’s central bank to deal with the recession in stagflation economy, where the expansionary price-based policy is often used for its relatively moderate feature. (3) From the time-varying and the evolutionary perspectives, the macroeconomic effects of quantitative monetary policy on the output are improved, and the effects on the inflation maintain stable. (4) As for price-based policy, its advantage of efforts is obvious on the output in the recovery period, the advantage of time lags on output lie in down economy, while the effects on inflation are making great improvement.
|
|
Received: 20 August 2015
Published: 19 April 2018
|
|
|
|
|
| [1] |
卞志村和胡恒强,2015,《中国货币政策工具的选择: 数量型还是价格型？基于DSGE模型的分析》, 《国际金融研究》第6期,第13~20页。
|
| [2] |
黄宪、王露璐、马理和代军勋,2012,《货币政策操作需要考虑银行资本监管吗》,《金融研究》第4期,第17~31页。
|
| [3] |
黄宪和王书朦,2014,《通货膨胀预期视角下货币政策非对称效应研究》,《财贸经济》第1期,第65~74页。
|
| [4] |
刘金全和刘兆波,2008,《我国货币政策的中介目标与宏观经济波动的关联性》,《金融研究》第10期,第37~47页。
|
| [5] |
盛天翔和范从来,2012,《信贷调控:数量型工具还是价格型工具》,《国际金融研究》第5期,第26~33页。
|
| [6] |
盛松成和吴培新,2008,《中国货币政策的二元传导机制——“两中介目标,两调控对象”模式研究》,《经济研究》第10期,第37~51页。
|
| [7] |
周小川,2013a,《新世纪以来中国货币政策的主要特点》,《中国金融》第2期,第9~14页。
|
| [8] |
周小川,2013b,《分析物价趋势的指标选择》,《金融研究》第5期,第1~11页。
|
| [9] |
Alesina, A. and R. Barro. 2002. “Currency Unions” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2): 409~436.
|
| [10] |
Atkeson, A., V. Chari, and J. Kehoe. 2007. “On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument” NBER Working Paper, No. 13398.
|
| [11] |
Bernanke, B. S. and A. Blinder. 1992. “The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission” The American Economic Review, 82(4): 901~921.
|
| [12] |
Bernanke, B. S. 2012. “Opening Remarks: Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis” Proceedings of the Economic Policy Symposium : 1~22.
|
| [13] |
Drakos, A. and G. Kouretas. 2015. “The Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Eurozone before and after the Financial Crisis” Economic Modelling, 48: 83~92.
|
| [14] |
Lucas, R. 1976. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1: 19~46.
|
| [15] |
Nakajima, J., M. Kasuya, and T. Watanabe. 2011. “Bayesian Analysis of Time-varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25(3): 225~245.
|
| [16] |
Orlowski, L. T. 2015. “Monetary Expansion and Bank Credit: A Lack of Spark” Journal of Policy Modeling,37:510~520.
|
| [17] |
Primiceri, G. 2005. “Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy” Review of Economic Studies, 72(3): 821~852.
|
| [18] |
Taylor, J. B. 1993. “Discretion versus Policy in Practice” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39: 195~214.
|
| [19] |
Woodford, M. 2012. “Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-rate Lower Bound” Proceedings of the Economic Policy Symposium: 185~288.
|
| [20] |
Woodford, M. 2013. “Monetary Policy Targets after the Crisis” Rethinking Macro Policy II, IMF.
|
|
|
|
