|
|
|
| New Round of Individual Income Tax Reform and Residents' Consumption Potential:A Study Based on Comprehensive Tax Payment and Special Additional Deductions |
| ZHAI Guangyu, XUE Yankai, LI Jingyi
|
| School of Finance/School of Public Finance and Taxation, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
|
|
|
Abstract Promoting consumption to boost domestic demand is an important focal point for fostering a new development pattern and driving China's economic growth. However, current domestic demand shortfalls remain a prominent issue, and the role of consumption in fueling economic growth urgently needs further enhancement. Based on the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference designating “comprehensively expanding domestic demand” as the primary task for 2025 economic work, how to effectively unleash residents' consumption potential has become a critical issue in economic development. As a key policy tool for adjusting residents' disposable income, Individual Income Tax (IIT) directly influences consumption behavior. China's new round of IIT reform in 2018 has provided a new pathway for releasing consumption potential, which marked a major transition from a classified tax system to a classified-comprehensive tax system and introduced special additional deductions for the first time. However, existing studies predominantly focus on its income distribution effects, with insufficient exploration of its consumption-stimulating effects. In the context of low consumption willingness and to expand domestic demand, three key questions arise: Can the new round of IIT reform effectively stimulate consumption？ What are the differential impacts of policy clauses on consumption？ How does its effect vary across different groups？
Based on the microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2018 and 2022, this paper calculates the changes in households' tax payable using residents' income data, and identifies two types of households: those affected solely by adjustments to the standard of expense deductions and tax rate brackets, and those affected simultaneously by comprehensive taxation and special additional deductions. By applying a first-difference model, this study comprehensively quantifies the impact of the new round of IIT reform on total household consumption and tax sensitivity, with a focus on analyzing how comprehensive taxation and special additional deductions drive consumption potential. Finally, heterogeneity analysis is conducted across two dimensions: enhancing the effectiveness of IIT reform policies and evaluating the synergistic effects of policy combinations.
Our study yields three key insights: First, the IIT reform has significantly boosted household consumption, with the consumption growth of households affected by comprehensive taxation and special additional deductions being more pronounced. Second, residents exhibit notable tax sensitivity, though such sensitivity diminishes as the intensity of tax shocks increases. Third, the effect of the IIT reform is heterogeneous: it exerts a more pronounced influence on household consumption among small families, those with higher education levels, households under strong liquidity constraints, and regions with developed e-commerce and industrial agglomeration. This effect is primarily reflected in increased household expenditures on housing, transportation and communication, preventive health care, and education and training, thereby contributing to the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.
Based on the above research findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed: First, target areas of substantial family burdens and consumption potential, further improve IIT policies by promoting the shift of the declaration model from individual to household, appropriately expanding the scope and standards for deductions related to housing, children's education, elderly care, etc., and fully unleashing family consumption potential. Second, strengthen the effectiveness of policy transmission, enhance policy implementation efficiency by accurately interpreting tax reform content through official channels and leverage big data platforms to achieve precise matching of tax incentives, improving policy implementation effects. Third, establish a multi-dimensional coordination mechanism: through integrated measures such as providing consumption subsidies, offering financial support, developing the platform economy, and actively harnessing the industrial agglomeration effect, convert the disposable income released by tax reform into effective demand.
This paper makes innovative marginal contributions from four dimensions. First, in terms of the research content, it conducts a timely analysis of the consumption effects of the new round of IIT reform, breaking through the limitation that existing literature mostly focuses on the consumption effects of early-stage tax reforms or the distribution effects of the new round of IIT reform. Second, in terms of the depth of research perspective, it decomposes the impacts of different policies in the new round of IIT reform on household consumption, thus providing a new entry point for subsequent studies on the effects of IIT reform. Third, in terms of the pertinence of policy recommendations, based on the conclusions of heterogeneity analysis, it provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for improving IIT policies and enhancing the implementation effect of tax reform policies. It also offers references for adopting supply-side measures to synergize with IIT policies in promoting consumption. Fourth, in terms of the methodological soundness, it accurately groups families through policy clauses to achieve a quantitative analysis of the consumption effects of different IIT reform regulations. By drawing on the core advantages of early classic literature and integrating cutting-edge methods from existing studies, it optimizes variable construction and data processing. The conclusions are more consistent with theoretical expectations and practical needs, offering reference value for further accurate analysis of the consumption effects of IIT reform in the future.
|
|
Received: 05 September 2024
Published: 02 July 2025
|
|
|
|
|
| Cite this article: |
|
ZHAI Guangyu,XUE Yankai,LI Jingyi. New Round of Individual Income Tax Reform and Residents' Consumption Potential:A Study Based on Comprehensive Tax Payment and Special Additional Deductions[J]. Journal of Financial Research,
2025, 540(6): 39-57.
|
|
|
|
| URL: |
| http://www.jryj.org.cn/EN/ OR http://www.jryj.org.cn/EN/Y2025/V540/I6/39 |
| [1] |
陈昌盛、许伟和兰宗敏,2021,《我国消费倾向的基本特征、发展态势与提升策略》,《管理世界》第8期,第46～59页。
|
| [2] |
方福前和邢炜,2015,《居民消费与电商市场规模的U型关系研究》,《财贸经济》第11期,第131～147页。
|
| [3] |
郭庆旺,2019,《减税降费的潜在财政影响与风险防范》,《管理世界》第6期,第1～10+194页。
|
| [4] |
胡华,2019,《平均税率与个人所得税的收入调节功能比较研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第6期,第98～116页。
|
| [5] |
纪园园和宁磊,2018,《相对收入假说下的收入差距对消费影响的研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第4期,第97～114页。
|
| [6] |
康书隆、王晓婷和余海跃,2022,《购房借贷约束与缴存家庭消费——基于公积金运营流动性视角的分析》,《金融研究》第3期,第115～134页。
|
| [7] |
刘蓉和寇璇,2019,《个人所得税专项附加扣除对劳动收入的再分配效应测算》,《财贸经济》第5期,第39～51页。
|
| [8] |
刘向东,2025,《大力提振消费增强扩内需动力》,《经济日报》,2025年2月6日第10版。
|
| [9] |
刘晓阳、丁志伟、黄晓东、王敏和王发曾,2018,《中国电子商务发展水平空间分布特征及其影响因素——基于1915个县(市)的电子商务发展指数》,《经济地理》第11期,第11～21+38页。
|
| [10] |
鲁元平、崔小勇和赵颖,2023,《减税如何影响居民收入分配——来自个人所得税月度数据的证据》,《金融研究》第10期,第165～185页。
|
| [11] |
穆光宗,2021,《当前中国家庭户小型化的社会意涵》,《人民论坛》第21期,第68～71页。
|
| [12] |
孙浦阳和杨易擎,2023,《个税改革对消费品市场的影响研究——来自2018年个税改革的证据》,《经济研究》第10期,第152～169页。
|
| [13] |
唐珏和郭长林,2024,《个税减免与企业薪酬策略》,《管理世界》第5期,第71～91页。
|
| [14] |
汪伟、艾春荣和曹晖,2013,《税费改革对农村居民消费的影响研究》,《管理世界》第1期,第89～100页。
|
| [15] |
王春超、冯大威和张志鑫,2024,《个人所得税改革与劳动供给:基于调整成本与收益的研究》,《世界经济》第4期,第184～211页。
|
| [16] |
王奇、李涵、赵国昌和牛耕,2022,《农村电子商务服务点、贸易成本与家庭网络消费》,《财贸经济》第6期,第128～143页。
|
| [17] |
王鑫和吴斌珍,2011,《个人所得税起征点变化对居民消费的影响》,《世界经济》第8期,第66～86页。
|
| [18] |
王秀燕、董长瑞和靳卫东,2019,《个人所得税改革与居民消费:基于准实验研究》,《管理评论》第2期,第36～48页。
|
| [19] |
王钰、田志伟和王再堂,2019,《2018年个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应研究》,《财经论丛》第8期,第31～38页。
|
| [20] |
王跃生,2020,《城乡家户、家庭规模及其结构比较分析》,《江苏社会科学》第6期,第11～24+241页。
|
| [21] |
谢强、唐珏、吕思诺和白金,2024,《失业保险、流动性约束及家庭消费》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期,第481～498页。
|
| [22] |
徐润和陈斌开,2015,《个人所得税改革可以刺激居民消费吗？——来自2011年所得税改革的证据》,《金融研究》第11期,第80～97页。
|
| [23] |
杨仁发,2013,《产业集聚与地区工资差距——基于我国269个城市的实证研究》,《管理世界》第8期,第41～52页。
|
| [24] |
易行健、李家山和万广华,2023a,《财富差距的居民消费抑制效应:机制探讨与经验证据》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第6期,第27～47页。
|
| [25] |
易行健、张凌霜和徐舒,2023b,《商业健康保险、预防性储蓄动机与居民消费支出——理论与经验证据》,《金融研究》第4期,第130～148页。
|
| [26] |
易祯和徐龙强,2025,《全面二孩政策对家庭“储蓄—消费”决策的影响》,《金融研究》第2期,第188～206页。
|
| [27] |
张玄和岳希明,2021,《新一轮个人所得税改革的收入再分配效应研究——基于CHIP 2018的测算分析》,《财贸经济》第11期,第46～58页。
|
| [28] |
赵达和王贞,2020,《个人所得税减免有助于中国城镇家庭提高消费吗？》,《统计研究》第5期,第27～39页。
|
| [29] |
Agarwal, S. and W. Qian, 2014, “Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore”, American Economic Review, 104(12), pp.4205～4230.
|
| [30] |
Baker, S.R., R.A. Farrokhnia, S. Meyer, et al., 2023, “Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments”, Review of Finance, 27(6), pp.2271～2304.
|
| [31] |
Baugh, B, I. Ben-David and H. Park, 2014, “Disentangling Financial Constraints, Precautionary Savings, and Myopia: Household Behavior Surrounding Federal Tax Returns”, NBER Working Paper, No. 19783.
|
| [32] |
Browning, M. and M.D. Collado, 2001, “The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates”, American Economic Review, 91(3), pp.681～692.
|
| [33] |
Duesenberry, J.S., 1949, Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, Harvard University Press.
|
| [34] |
Hsieh, C.T., 2003,“Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes？ Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund”, American Economic Review, 93(1), pp.397～405.
|
| [35] |
Johnson, D.S., J.A. Parker and N.S. Souleles, 2006, “Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001”, American Economic Review, 96(5), pp.1589～1610.
|
| [36] |
Kaplan, G. and G.L. Violante, 2014, “A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments”, Econometrica, 82(4), pp.1199～1239.
|
| [37] |
Kaplan, G., G.L. Violante and J. Weidner, 2014, “The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1, pp.77～138.
|
| [38] |
Kuijs, L., 2006, “How Will China's Saving-investment Balance Evolve？”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3958.
|
| [39] |
Parker, J. A.,N.S. Souleles, D.S. Johnson and R. McClelland, 2013, “Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008”, American Economic Review, 103(6), pp.2530-2553.
|
| [40] |
Souleles, N.S., 1999, “The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds”, American Economic Review, 89(4), pp.947～958.
|
| [41] |
Souleles, N.S., 2002, “Consumer Response to the Reagan Tax Cuts”, Journal of Public Economics, 85(1), pp.99～120.
|
| [42] |
Wooldridge, J.M., 2010, Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press.
|
| [43] |
Zeldes, S.P., 1989, “Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation”, The Journal of Political Economy, 97(2), pp.305～346.
|
|
|
|
