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  25 November 2016, Volume 437 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Global Risk Aversion and Capital Flows:An Analysis of the Causes of “Dilemma”   Collect
WU Ge, LU Jian
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 1-14.  
Abstract ( 1346 )     PDF (1337KB) ( 738 )  
With the development of global financial integration, more and more new factors and mechanisms emerge which influence the effects of monetary policies and traditional framework of “Impossible Triangle”. Recently, some scholars proposed a new analytical framework of “Dilemma” which believes that as long as one country allows free capital flow, its monetary policy would not be effective, no matter it adopts floating or fixed exchange rate regime. This paper creatively constructs a new Mundell-Fleming model which contains global risk aversion element. Based on this model, we propose a hypothesis: the increase of global risk aversion will reduce the effect of monetary policy. When the ratio of risk premium caused by global risk aversion and expanded money supply reaches some threshold value, the monetary policy will be completely invalid. We then build a panel data model to conduct empirical test. It strongly confirms the hypothesis mentioned above.
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Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention: Operation and Effectiveness Evaluation   Collect
WANG Aijian, DENG Liqiao
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 15-31.  
Abstract ( 1155 )     PDF (1805KB) ( 2191 )  
This paper portrays FX intervention and monetary policy transition factors into NK-DSGE theoretical model framework, introducing risk-averse foreign exchange trader, adding capital controls factor in the conventional UIP to study the impact of macroeconomic variables under different types of shocks and different foreign exchange intervention scenarios. The results show that: the effects on the extent of fluctuations in exchange rates are not the same; contrast to discretional intervention, rule-based intervention would be more robust and cost saving; in response to shocks, discretional intervention had no significant effect, and rule-based intervention had stronger stabilization power; in addition, the foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy has a strong interaction in general equilibrium framework. Central bank should build foreign exchange intervention strategy, establish foreign exchange intervention target system, set the RMB exchange rate intervention interval, and select a reasonable and transparent intervention on this basis, quantify the effect of the intervention in order to guarantee the steady operation of the macro economy.
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The Influence of Central Bank Communication on RMB Exchange Rate Volatility   Collect
ZHU Ning, XU Yixuan, QIU Guanghui
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 32-46.  
Abstract ( 859 )     PDF (1383KB) ( 371 )  
Based on the traditional uncovered interest rate parity theory under the open economic environment,this paper introduced the central bank communication indicator to a theoretical model. And then,we use the sample of PBC communication practice and RMB exchange rates from October,2006 to December, 2014, and adopt EGARCH models to analyze the influence of central bank communication on RMB exchange rate volatility, and the extent to which different channels of communication, different content and different communication of the monetary policy direction make influence on RMB exchange rate. The empirical study shows that: (1) Central bank communication has certain influence on volatility of RMB exchange rate; (2) The effect of written communication is more obvious than verbal communication; (3) In the verbal communication,presidents' communication is more effective than other officers' communication; (4) In the verbal communication,the effect of communication of the monetary policy direction is better than that of the macroeconomic forecasting. (5) The effect of the easy intention is better than that of the tight one. The results of this study indicate that central bank communication plays a positive role in the expected management of the exchange rates. It helps to maintain the stability of the exchange rates. On the strategy of communication,the central bank should pay much more attention to verbal communication. At the same time,it should carry on the central bank presidents' communication and communication of the monetary policy direction prudently and effectively,attach great importance to the easy intention of communication of the monetary policy direction in order to improve the effect of communication.
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Measuring and Forecasting Short Rate’s Volatility: Based on Mixed Frequency Short Rate Model with Macro Factor   Collect
SHANG Yuhuang, ZHENG Tingguo
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 47-62.  
Abstract ( 852 )     PDF (1545KB) ( 628 )  
Many empirical studies show that macroeconomic play important rule in short rate and its volatility behavior. For better fitting and forecasting the volatility of short rate with macroeconomic information, this paper proposes the mixed frequency short rate model with macro factors, namely BHK-MIDAS model. Based on the Chinese data we find that: compared with the traditional short rate model, BHK-MIDAS model exhibits the better in-sample performance. The macro fundamental and price indicator contribute more for the volatility of short rate than that of monetary policy indicators. Furthermore, mixed frequency model can identify the time vary long term component affected by macro factors. Particularly, BHK-MIDAS model presents the better out-sample performance too. It is implied that the macro factors contribute substantially to identification and prediction of short rate’s volatility.
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Monetary Policy, Financing Constraints and Cash Dividends   Collect
QUAN Yi, LIANG Shangkun, FU Yuxiang
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 63-79.  
Abstract ( 770 )     PDF (1655KB) ( 483 )  
Dividend distribution is not only the core content of financial management of listed companies, but also an important form of the investor to obtain investment returns. This paper focuses on the effects of monetary policy on cash dividends with the sample of A shares companies with positive profit listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges from 1999 to 2012. The results show: (1) tight monetary policy will reduce cash dividends; (2) financing constraints of the companies will enhance the relationship between tight monetary policy and cash dividends. (3) banking connection will reduce the effects of tight monetary policy. In addition, the semi mandatory dividend policy causes companies distribute more cash dividends in periods with tight monetary policy. The findings of this paper enrich the literature on the determinants of cash dividends and economic consequences of monetary policy, and it also provides implications to the laws and regulations of dividend policy in China.
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Financial Constraints or Demand Shocks?An Examination on Corporate Investment in China’s Listed Firms During the Financial Crisis   Collect
LIU Xing, ZHANG Chao, XIN Qingquan
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 80-95.  
Abstract ( 839 )     PDF (1536KB) ( 269 )  
On the perspective of demand shocks and financial constraints, this study investigates the capital investment fluctuation of China’s Listed Companies during the Financial Crisis. Based on the quarterly data, the results show there is a decline of 19.4% on capital expenditure in post-crisis period compared with those in the pre-crisis period. In addition, the companies with more overseas market businesses reduced more capital investments than the others. At the meantime, the cash holding of these companies is rising and the debt financing is declining. Additionally, there is little evidence indicating a relationship between financial constrain of pre-crisis and the capital investment of current crisis. This study argues that comparing to the financing constraints hypothesis which stems from credit supply shock, demand shocks hypothesis stems from the decline and uncertainty of international market demand is a more appropriate explanation to the listed companies’ investment and financing behavior during the financial crisis.
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Banking Competition and Firms’ Innovation:Empirical Evidence from Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database   Collect
CAI Jing, DONG Yan
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 96-111.  
Abstract ( 1334 )     PDF (1551KB) ( 672 )  
According to the layout of commercial banks’ branches in cities issued by China Banking Regulatory Commission, this paper empirically investigates the effect of banking competition on firms’ innovation by using a large sample of Chinese industrial enterprises database from year 2005 to 2007. We find that a higher degree of banking competition will bring more innovation activities of enterprises, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Meanwhile, compared to the state-owned commercial banks and city commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks play a more important role in encouraging firms’ innovation. This paper enriches the research related to the effect of banking structure on the innovation activities of firms, and provides basis for supporting the balanced regional development of financial markets.
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Lifting of Short Sale Constraint and Market Value of Cash:An Empirical Tests Based on China Stock Market   Collect
HOU Qingchuan, JIN Qinglu, LIU Yang
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 112-127.  
Abstract ( 981 )     PDF (1364KB) ( 358 )  
Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges allowed the short sale on designated stocks since March 31, 2010. After lifting the short sale constraint, investors can sell short the stocks if controlling shareholders tunnel cash away from the firm for private benefits, and thus the stock price will decline. Compared with firms that cannot be sold short, the incentive to siphon cash away of controlling shareholders of firms that can be sold short may be mitigated, if the costs of price decline are larger than the private benefits of siphoning cash. Therefore, the market value of cash will increase due to the disciplining role of short sale. Based on A-share firms on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2014, this study uses the lifting of short sale constraint as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the prediction. The empirical results indicate that lifting short sale constraint can help to increase the market value of cash, and such impact primarily exist in private firms with relatively concentrated ownership by controlling shareholders.
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Research on Optimal Investment Strategies for DC Commercial Pension Funds:Based on the Perspective of Deferred Personal Income Tax Policy   Collect
LI Xinyu, DUAN Zhiming
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 128-141.  
Abstract ( 837 )     PDF (1697KB) ( 329 )  
This paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze what effects the deferred personal income tax policy will have on commercial pension funds’ investment strategy and the terminal size. Our results show that tax-deferred account (EET) will motivate fund managers to reduce the proportion of risky assets, effectively expand the terminal size of the funds, and mitigate the risk of the funds. So individuals can increase the contribution rate based on their preferences for risk and return. What is more, these effects depend on whether individual utility will be improved, which requires tax abatement and tax exemption for pension (TEE).
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Foreign Ownership and Stock Liquidity   Collect
DENG Baijun, LI Zhongfei, LIANG Quanxi
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 142-157.  
Abstract ( 889 )     PDF (1238KB) ( 366 )  
We use manually collected data to analyze the impact of foreign ownership on stock liquidity. The results show that foreign ownership can significantly decrease stock liquidity. The negative effect of foreign institutional ownership is enhanced while the effect of foreign individual ownership is wakened in firms with low stock information. And this marginal effect only exist in firms with high state-own share.
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Large Stock Dividends and Insiders’ Shares Selling:Which One Dominates the Other?   Collect
XIE Deren, CUI Chenyu, LIAO Ke
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 158-173.  
Abstract ( 811 )     PDF (1747KB) ( 447 )  
This paper examines whether the large stock dividends (LSD) is intentionally used to help insiders to sell stock (ISS). Based on solving the reverse causality endogeneity problem between LSD and ISS and alleviating measurement errors in ISS, we find that firms have strong incentives to undertake LSD as a way of market value management to help insiders earn more from stock sales. Our paper provides not only a better understanding for firms’ motivation about LSD, but also empirical evidence for regulators to deal with the abuse of LSD and protect investors.
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Do Chinese Overseas Returnees Earn More?   Collect
SUN Yuting, DU Zaichao, ZHAO Guochang, LI Rui
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 174-190.  
Abstract ( 1018 )     PDF (1442KB) ( 403 )  
Using CHFS2013 data, we empirically study the income and occupation choices of Chinese overseas returnees. We carry out our regression analyses on matched samples, and hence our results are quite robust across different model specifications and instrumental variables. We find that: for people with graduate degrees, overseas returnees earn about 36% more annually, work around 140 hours more annually, and get an hourly wage 33% higher than the domestic; the overseas premium for graduate students are partly due to signaling effect, but more importantly due to higher human capital effect; overseas returnees with graduate degrees are more likely to enter technical, business and service industries, especially foreign-funded ventures; undergraduate overseas returnees have no significant differences in terms of income, working hour and occupation choices, when compared with domestic undergraduates; Overseas returnees are more likely to get promoted.
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Cross-listings, Growth Opportunities and Dividend Policy:A Test Based on Government Intervention Hypothesis   Collect
QIN Jiaqi, SHAO Xinjian, XIAO Lisheng
Journal of Financial Research. 2016, 437 (11): 191-206.  
Abstract ( 714 )     PDF (1418KB) ( 294 )  
Although bonding hypothesis which is prevailing in the research area of cross-listings has received a great many tests, it is necessary to further investigate whether it is applied to the cases of non-US countries or areas. Based on the historical context of Chinese H+A cross-listings and hypothesis of government intervention, we confer that H+A companies have lower growth opportunities, less dividend pay-out ratio, and lower willingness of dividend payment, due to greater intervention from government. With 5602 observations of unbalanced panel data from 2007 to 2014, the empirical results support our hypothesis completely. Even after controlling the problem of sample selection bias and endogeneity with the methods of treatment effect model, bivariate probit model, propensity score matching, and bias-corrected matching, our results remain robust. Further investigation also shows that H+A companies have greater likelihood to over-invest, lower sensitivity between compensation of top 3 board directors and firm performance, and lower sensitivity between CEO turnover and performance, which strengthens the government intervention hypothesis that serves as the foundation of this paper.
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