政府税收税率和通货膨胀率关系的理论和实证研究——对Mankiw Principle的理论修正及在中国的实证检验

Journal of Financial Research

2015, Vol. 422

Issue (8): 64-78 DOI:

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A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Government Tax Rates and Inflation Rate: Mankiw Principle in China

LU Qianjin

Department of International Finance,Fudan University

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Abstract The paper theoretically indicates that under the conditions of a representative agent utility maximization and the government indefinite budget constraints, the tax rate and the inflation rate is not only a positive correlation, negative correlation may also exist. At the same time under the government's fiscal target cost function minimization and the government indefinite budgetary constraints, there is not only a positive correlation, but also a negative correlation, which is different from "Mankiw principle" analysis. Based on the sample data from 1952 to 2013, the GMM empirical results display that the tax rate and the inflation rate is positively related, but the effects on government tax are positive by the government spending, the effects of the government spending are positive on the slope of the government tax and the inflation rate, and negative are the effects of the resources endowment on the slope. From the impulse response functions of the VAR model, there also shows a positive correlation between the tax rates and the inflation rate, the impact of the government expenditure is positive on the slope of the tax rate and the inflation rate, the resource endowment influences the slope negatively, which are consistent with the conclusions of GMM analysis.

Key words： Inflation rate Government tax rate Seigniorage Mankiw principle

Received: 18 July 2014 Published: 19 April 2018

JEL分类号:	E31
	H21
	H53

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LU Qianjin. A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Government Tax Rates and Inflation Rate: Mankiw Principle in China[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2015, 422(8): 64-78.

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http://www.jryj.org.cn/EN/ OR http://www.jryj.org.cn/EN/Y2015/V422/I8/64

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