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| Analysis of Economic Potential Growth Rate of China under the New Normal |
| WU Guopei, WANG Weibin, ZHANG Xining
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| Fuzhou Central Sub-Branch of the People’s Bank of China |
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Abstract This paper estimates China's capital stock in detail. On this basis, employing the production function method to estimate potential output of China in 1978-2012 ,which considering capital, labor force, labor quality and total factor productivity and using the state space model to estimate the dynamic output elasticity of factor inputs.Then based on the characteristics of China's economic new normal, analysing the trend of main factors which would impact the future economic growth and predicting the economic potential growth rate of China in future, which will be about 7% in 2016-2020 under the baseline scenario according to estimates. The contributions to economic growth of the capital and labor inputs will decline in future. Great attentions should be paid to the role of total factor productivity.
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Received: 13 April 2015
Published: 19 April 2018
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