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| Money Supply and Exchange Rate Movement: Will the “Monetary Overhang” in China Make the Weakening of RMB Against Greenback Inevitable？ |
| GUAN Tao
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| Wuhan University;China Finance 40 Forum |
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Abstract After the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in August 2015, RMB exchange rate had been through continued and sharp depreciation. There is a view that it is the inevitable result of the “monetary overhang” in China. Based on the analysis of the creation process of credit money, we point out that the high money demand incurred by the rapid economic growth and the low efficiency of money use are the main reasons of the high absolute value of M2 and the ratio of M2/GDP in China. So it is not proper to jump into the conclusion that “monetary overhang” exists in China and the deprecation of RMB exchange rate is inevitable. It is the fragility of the financial system rather than the volume of money that is the biggest challenge of keeping exchange rate stability and fulfilling the successful transformation of exchange rate regime. So we bring the policy suggestions that economic growth is the key, expectation is important, financial system needs healthy and open-up should prudent.
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Received: 23 September 2018
Published: 22 January 2019
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